Yankees vs. Guardians, Game 4: Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds
| Yankees Odds | -165 |
| Guardians Odds | +140 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 16 |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Sunday evening, the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians will battle at Progressive Field in Game 4 of the American League Division Series. In the series opener on Tuesday, Cleveland jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the 3rd inning, but New York prevailed 4-1 after taking the lead in the 5th inning and adding a pair of insurance runs in the subsequent frame. In Game 2, the Guardians trailed early, but emerged victorious in 10 innings. Last night, Cleveland trailed 5-3 heading into the bottom of the 9th before rallying for a 6-5 victory to take a commanding 2-1 series lead. Tonight, Gerrit Cole will get the ball for the Yankees, who will be opposed by Cal Quantrill. Oddsmakers are expecting the Yankees to push this series back to New York, pricing them as -165 road favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 4 of the American League Division Series.
New York Yankees
In 2021, Gerrit Cole nearly won the American League Cy Young award, with a 3.23 ERA, 3.10 xERA, and a 2.92 FIP. In 2022, a public narrative has gained steam that Gerrit Cole is no longer capable of being an ace – despite the fact that he finished the year with a 3.50 ERA, 3.31 xERA, and a 3.47 FIP. Cole’s 2022 was definitely short of expectations, but he is far from a liability on the mound. His velocity and spin rates remain elite, with his fastball command being the main vulnerability in his repertoire. Diminished fastball command this summer resulted in a career-worst 33 home runs allowed by the Yankees’ ace, but the long-ball could be less of a concern in this spot against a Cleveland offense that hit the second-fewest home runs in the league this year. Further, Cole has proven that his five-pitch mix makes him less vulnerable than his peers when pitching in a hyper-proximity matchup. On August 9th, Cole delivered 7.0 innings of shutout baseball, facing the Seattle Mariners for the second time in less than a week. On June 20th, Cole held the Tampa Bay Rays to only one earned run across 7.1 innings of work in a hyper-proximity matchup. Expect a strong performance from the veteran right-hander on Sunday.
Across the final 30 days of the regular season, the Bronx Bombers ranked 2nd in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 4th in walk rate, and 4th in HardHit percentage against right-handed pitching. In Game 1, this lineup tagged Cal Quantrill for three earned runs, including two home runs. In Game 2, Giancarlo Stanton went yard in the first inning, but Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, and Emmanuel Clase held the Yankees scoreless across the final nine innings of the contest. Last night, Aaron Judge, Harrison Bader, and Oswaldo Cabrera each went deep, scoring four runs off of starter Triston McKenzie. Facing Quantrill for the second time in a week, this offense should be able to put together a number of quality at-bats in the early portion of this ballgame.
The primary concern for New York continues to be their bullpen, which ranked 15th in FIP, 13th in WHIP, 20th in strikeout percentage, and 27th in walk rate after the All-Star break. In previous postseason runs, Manager Aaron Boone has had no shortage of elite talent available in the latter frames, but still proved incapable of making good decisions late in games. In the first three games of this series, New York’s arm barn has allowed five earned runs in 11.0 innings. Wandy Peralta, Jonathan Loaisiga, Lou Trivino, and Clarke Schmidt have each appeared in each of the last two days. Fatigue, talent, and managerial decision-making are all issues of which to be mindful in Game 4.
Cleveland Guardians
Contrary to Cole, Cal Quantrill is not the ace of his respective pitching staff, but he has given the Guardians an opportunity to win nearly each time he has taken the mound in 2022. The 15-game winner was particularly effective down the stretch of the regular season, with a 2.21 ERA, 3.17 FIP, and a 1.02 WHIP in his final 12 turns through the rotation – a stretch of outings that included five matchups against eventual playoff teams. Notably, Quantrill did a much better job during the second half of the year at limiting the long-ball, allowing only five home runs across his final 69.2 innings of work, which was in stark contrast to the 16 home runs that he allowed in his first 117.0 innings of the year. Still, keeping the ball in the yard is easier said than done against a New York offense that led all of baseball in home runs this summer. Perhaps also concerning for Quantrill in this spot is that he does not have a deep pitch-mix. Since entering the Cleveland rotation in 2021, Quantrill has allowed eight earned runs in 18.2 innings.
The Cleveland offense does not profile particularly well against Gerrit Cole. During the regular season, Cole struggled the most against teams that proved capable of hitting home runs, which is not the strength of this Guardians’ offense. This summer, Cleveland hit the second-fewest home runs in the league. In three contests against Cole in 2022, including the postseason, the Guardians have scored only three runs in 19.0 innings. The key to putting runs on the board this evening will be working the count and getting into New York’s taxed bullpen.
Incredibly, the Guardians managed to secure a victory in Game 3 without using, arguably, the strongest part of their roster – the bullpen. Since the All-Star break, Cleveland’s arm barn ranks 1st in FIP, 2nd in WHIP, 2nd in strikeout percentage, 2nd in walk rate, and 5th in left-on-base percentage. Manager Tito Francona has a rested James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase available in Game 4, and will likely be extremely aggressive with the rest of this unit as well, considering Quantrill’s extremely poor splits when facing an order more than twice in a game.
Guardians-Yankees Pick
The Cleveland Guardians have consistently failed to generate offense against Gerrit Cole this season, scoring only three runs in 19.0 innings. On Sunday, Cole is pitching in a win-or-go-home situation for a desperate New York Yankees organization. Expect Cole to be sharp in this one, and for the combination of a pitcher-friendly umpire and pitcher-friendly weather conditions to keep Cleveland’s bats quiet in the early going tonight.
PICKS: Cleveland Guardians, Under 1.5 runs – First 5 innings (-140, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Imagn