NFL $4.44M Fantasy Football Millionaire Review: Week 3

The Millionaire review series will provide the reader with a breakdown of the exposures of “top of the leaderboard” players, the top single-entry lineup, and a comparison between all single entry lineups and professionals for the weekly DraftKings Millionaire Maker GPP.

This week, we looked at the $4.44M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st!] on DraftKings with a buy-in of $20 and maximum entry limit of 150 lineups per person.

Multi-Entry Grinders of the Game

CSURAM88 played a copious number of quarterbacks, but keyed in on a select few (Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill) that were projected by Vegas to outscore their Week 1-2 averages by a significant margin and carried a reduction in cost. You’ll see a significant number of chalk running back and wide receiver plays in his ownership sheet, but you may overlook the absolute golden plays scattered throughout. Having Terrelle Pryor Sr., Jordy Nelson, Doug Baldwin, Travis Kelce, etc. at such high ownerships over the field really cemented a number of his top lineups (three finishes in the top-33) and launched him into serious contention.

Papagates entered 150 lineups as well, but played fewer players, and at higher ownerships, in order to reduce the effect of varying combinations. He also almost exclusively flexed wide receivers and faded most conventional running backs. This strategy hit gold when the struggling Bills leaned on LeSean McCoy to steamroll the Arizona Cardinals. Headlining most positions on his ownership sheet are players who possessed a significant workload at a reduced price, due to injuries (Terrelle Pryor Sr., Shane Vereen) or slow price adjustments (Marvin Jones Jr., Stefon Diggs), and regardless of matchup (T.Y. Hilton, LeSean McCoy). He leapfrogged a majority of the field with significant ownership over the field in LeSean McCoy (48% vs 1.8% field ownership). While he heavily favored a few players, a couple of his lower-owned players in Matthew Stafford and Zach Miller were crucial to his 1st place finish (tied – $600K each).

Shawnzhan showed a combination of the previous two players strategies: He split his QB ownership evenly between five players, some chalk, some contrarian. From there, we see significant chalk at RB ownership while differentiating himself with a majority of contrarian TE and DST plays (which are inherently more volatile). His core of WR was a mix of chalk and contrarian but hit significant value on almost every single one (barring Travis Benjamin and some below 20%). This was a great approach as he was able to secure a 81.3% cash rate while placing twice inside the top-100.

Single-Entry Winner of the Game

DizzleWizzle was the highest placed single entry player without a single sexy play in sight (Stefon Diggs, Travis Benjamin, DeAngelo Williams, etc.). He relied on a number of volatile players who had negative recency bias (Doug Baldwin, Darren Sproles) but still had the game script in their favor. With Odell being shadowed by Josh Norman, Sterling Shepard saw a heavy dose of targets and Marvin Jones benefited from four Packers starters out with injury (including their #1 CB, Sam Shields). However, even with Brandon Marshall hobbled, I’m not sure Dizzle was expecting Fitzmagic to gift-wrap him a mid five-figure payout via a 35 point Chiefs defensive performance (on 6 INT, 2TD).

Single-Entry vs. CSURAM88/papagates/shawnzhan

Out of 256,904 entries in the Fantasy Football Millionaire, 32.9% of those entries were entered courtesy of players using a single bullet. The table below compares the exposures of those single entries to the exposures of CSURAM88, papagates, shawnzhan, and 50 other top professionals picked off of RotoGrinders’ leaderboard:

About the Author

  • Marty Hutton (smurg)

  • Smurg is a low limit H2H grinder who dabbles in GPPs from time to time. He has played daily fantasy sports since 2012 and has a passion for excel spreadsheets. When he’s not dreaming of fantasy riches, he is qualifying pipeline welding procedures for the oil & gas market.

Comments

  • Tammy409

    Congrats to those who won big and did well, and I see that there were no ‘WTF?’ picks to give one pause or to raise an eyebrow, but I DO have one question that unless I’m a moron begs asking…

    WHY would Papagates be so heavily in on Cam Newton and given the number of receivers used (Chalky, Depressed, High and Low Priced), why would he have had ZERO exposure to Kelvin Benjamin? I still don’t know what happened with him in that game… Was he in the ‘Doghouse’ for something and I was unaware (Your table also shows that ‘Pro’s in general owned him at a rate only one-third as high as the general Dfs Pop) , as his numbers through the first two weeks were stellar and he was clearly Cam’s fave target (Olsen too, but he had plenty of Olsen at TE). I can see the Diggs fade (though I didn’t), but Kelvin B. was neither too popular (not moreso than others heavily into) nor too expensive nor overmatched.

    What am I missing?

  • tonedefrob

    Cam is one of the few QBs that makes sense to use naked (without a WR/TE stack). Since JStew was out it was safe to assume that on goalline opportunities they would have Cam try to get it in.

    However he did have a lot of Olsen, so the amount he ran out there naked was likely less than his 21.3% Cam ownership.

  • Linsanity88

    @Tammy409 said...

    Congrats to those who won big and did well, and I see that there were no ‘WTF?’ picks to give one pause or to raise an eyebrow, but I DO have one question that unless I’m a moron begs asking…

    WHY would Papagates be so heavily in on Cam Newton and given the number of receivers used (Chalky, Depressed, High and Low Priced), why would he have had ZERO exposure to Kelvin Benjamin? I still don’t know what happened with him in that game… Was he in the ‘Doghouse’ for something and I was unaware (Your table also shows that ‘Pro’s in general owned him at a rate only one-third as high as the general Dfs Pop) , as his numbers through the first two weeks were stellar and he was clearly Cam’s fave target (Olsen too, but he had plenty of Olsen at TE). I can see the Diggs fade (though I didn’t), but Kelvin B. was neither too popular (not moreso than others heavily into) nor too expensive nor overmatched.

    What am I missing?

    Xavier Rhodes

  • sirdubs

    • Blogger of the Month

    I’m most surprised by papagates choice to expose himself to shane vereen 100% and the Seahawks D at 94%. Plays like that take take some serious guts

  • Genghis_Khan

    • 259

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #31

      RG Tiered Ranking

    If you’re gonna post papagates’ %s in this article, you should post the distribution of his other 150 lineups as well. I’ve read all these tourney summary articles here this week and not even a peep about what’s going on.

  • johnny72

    Something fishy with all the 2 percent or lower being 25 to over 50 percent for the big boys.

  • louiescards

    DK KoTH winner

    • Moderator

    @johnny72 said...

    Something fishy with all the 2 percent or lower being 25 to over 50 percent for the big boys.

    Which players are you seeing this for? I do not see any huge gaps from the field to pros.

  • smurg

    @Genghis_Khan I posted ChipotleAddicts ownership to the same GPP at the end of page 14 in the forum thread if that’s what you are insinuating.

    @johnny72 I’m not sure what you found fishy, but from my experience, I tend to see the single-entry players (more recreational) fade poorly performing players while favoring players who performed great recently (regardless of current matchup). Whereas the pro’s tend to look at the complete picture (vegas lines, matchup, ceiling, field ownership, etc).This would apply to the above: Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, TY Hilton, Doug Baldwin, Terrelle Pryor, and Tyler Lockett. While many of these plays hit, some did not.

  • lexmarke238

    I wonder what happened to the guy who finished in the top 10 with a free agent TE in his lineup.

  • johnny72

    Maybe not so blatant but the Russell Wilson one is a puzzler for all three. .9 percent single entry and 2 percent field, 6.5 % pros and these three have him at 24%, 46%, and 20%. Seems like they knew what percentage owned him before gametime especially papagates as with this pick and the McCoy pick. Both around 2 percent owned and he somehow does 46% and 48%. Just seems many deviations above a normal distribution but what do I know. I do appreciate the stats they are great.

  • Genghis_Khan

    • 259

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #31

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @smurg said...

    @Genghis_Khan I posted ChipotleAddicts ownership to the same GPP at the end of page 14 in the forum thread if that’s what you are insinuating.

    Ok, thank you.

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