NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 15
With the holidays swiftly approaching, I am looking to unwrap some NFL props in Week 15. Last weekend, Ryan Fitzpatrick was five yards short of his over, Alvin Kamara did nothing in a game where both teams combined for 94 points, and Julian Edelman smashed his receiving yardage prop. The single cash week broke a streak of two winner-weeks. The only path to redemption is a sweep this week. Anybody have a broom?
NFL Betting Picks Week 15 — QB Player Prop for Broncos at Chiefs
Our first Lock of the week is Drew… Lock. The young quarterback is coming off of a big upset victory over the Houston Texans that featured 309 passing yards on 27 attempts. The Broncos jumped all over the Texans early and never looked back as the home favorite tried to play catch-up in garbage time. Lock threw for three touchdowns and seems to have a stronghold on the Denver reins in the last few weeks of the season.
The Chiefs pass defense is somewhere in the middle of the pack. Despite allowing only 35.5 passing attempts per game, the Chiefs allow an average of 227.2 passing yards. With Patrick Mahomes back in the fold, the Chiefs’ offense should be higher octane and force Drew Lock to throw. The sample on Lock is very small but the Broncos have no reason to keep the shackles on the young quarterback when behind.
The weather in this game is projected to be poor with chances for snow. I will not overreact to the weather especially considering this line came out after the weather was a concern. Defenses also need to play in conditions and can struggle to stay with receivers in slippery conditions. I will take the over hoping we don’t end up seeing a blizzard in Kansas City.
FanDuel is certainly the place to bet this line as DraftKings features the number at 234.5 at the same price. As discussed in the opener, a couple of yards here and there can certainly change the outcome. Shop around for your best bets.
My Pick: Over 232.5 Passing Yards -112
NFL Betting Picks Week 15 — RB Player Prop for Dolphins at Giants
Saquon Barkley Over/Under 78.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
As if a Drew Lock pick were not bold enough, our next pick comes live from the Meadowlands. No. I am not talking about Patrick Laird, a consensus chalk play on DFS sites. Instead of the savior, I am talking about another likely popular DFS option, Saquon Barkley. Process over results. Am I right?
Barkley’s first two seasons in the NFL might be about as far apart as the North and South Pole. After strolling to a Rookie of the Year award, Saquon is putting together an arguably horrific season. With only two rushing touchdowns, Barkley’s rushing yards per attempt are down to 4.0 from 5.0 last season. There has been little room to run and the Giants are often scripted out of most games. Despite the inefficiency and despite speculation that Barkley might be a bit banged up, he has averaged 15.4 attempts per game. The Giants have nothing to play for with Eli Manning replacing an injured Daniel Jones but have not played the part.
In come the Dolphins, playing their second game in the Meadowlands in a row. The Dolphins are exactly the matchup Barkley and the Giants need — a boon to efficiency. Allowing a robust 4.6 yards per attempt to all running backs, a player of Barkley’s caliber should finally see some holes. With Eli at quarterback, the Giants will be pleased to let Saquon run the ball. The public likes the under as evidenced by the slight shift to -118 on the number. Before betting the over, you might consider waiting to see if the price moves a bit more. Regardless, I want the over on this number.
My Pick: Over 78.5 Rushing Yards -108
NFL Betting Picks Week 15 — TE Player Prop for Falcons at 49ers
Austin Hooper Over/Under 53.5 Receiving Yards (use our DraftKings)
Finally, Austin Hooper returned from injury last week as the Falcons got pretty healthy in a victory versus the Panthers. The Carolina Panthers are not the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers were exposed some by an efficient, Drew Brees-led offense in New Orleans. The Falcons, however, do not possess the same type of efficiency and/or protection as the Saints. The Saints have allowed 1.6 sacks per game in 2019. On the contrary, the Falcons allow 3.2 sacks per game as they get ready for a game against the 49ers, the NFL leading defense in sack percentage (10.25%).
One might argue that Hooper will be an outlet for Matt Ryan at tight end but that has not been the case for other offenses. The Niners only have a measly 389 receiving yards on record to the tight end position and that is after a 68-yard week from the New Orleans’ battery. I don’t see Atlanta moving the ball much and the 49ers will likely use their three-pronged rushing attack to limit Atlanta possessions. Give me the under.
My Pick: Under 53.5 Receiving Yards -112
Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 15 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 15 betting picks.
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