NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 9
Happy Saturday, Grinders! Week 9 is upon us with a far-less crowded slate than normal for a Sunday afternoon. A few “funnel” defenses provide opportunities to prop bettors, though, as defenses that love to sell out to stop the run can be targeted this weekend. Let’s get to the props.
Check out our Week 9 Lines and Betting Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into all of the online sportsbooks. Here are my three favorite props for NFL Week 9.
NFL Betting Picks Week 9 — QB Player Prop for Buccaneers at Seahawks
Russell Wilson Over/Under 264.5 Passing Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
One of the frontrunners for the NFL MVP, Russell Wilson is having a typically efficient season for the Seattle Seahawks. Wilson’s 8.5 yards per pass attempt is fourth in the NFL. The Seahawks want to commit to the run but this weekend’s matchup might force the ball in Russ’s hand more than normal.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers represent a really strong matchup for opposing passers because while they are not very efficient against quarterbacks, the Bucs are extremely efficient against opposing rushing attacks. The Buccaneers lead the NFL by allowing only three yards per rushing attempt to opposing offenses. Despite the prowess against the run, the Buccaneers are middle of the pack in net yards per pass attempt by opposing quarterbacks (6.7). Tampa Bay has allowed four quarterbacks to pass for more than 300 yards. Russ could be number five.
When Wilson needs to uncork passes, he can compile yards as well. He has two games with 300 yards or more with both scripts forcing the Seahawks to pass. Even as a home favorite, the Seahawks might need to move the ball through the air to keep possession against a stout front. Give me the over.
My Pick: Over 264.5 Passing Yards -106
NFL Betting Picks Week 9 — RB Player Prop for Bears at Eagles
David Montgomery Over/Under and 51.5 Rushing Yards (use our FanDuel promo code to get these odds)
David Montgomery has disappointed in the 2019 season but finally broke out last week against the porous Chargers’ rush defense. Montgomery carried the ball 27 times for 135 yards — five yards per carry. Pretty good, right?
We certainly cannot discredit Montgomery for a big play but one of his attempts went for 55 yards. Take away that big play and Montgomery averaged three yards per attempt for the rest of his rushing touches. Yuck. I read through the box score — it was not pretty. Montgomery rushes for 3 yards. Montgomery rushes for no gain. Montgomery rushes for a loss of three yards. Gross.
Now, Montgomery and the Bears travel to Philadelphia to play an Eagles defense that simply does not allow running backs to do anything. The Eagles rush defense allows a measly 3.44 yards per rush attempt to opposing running backs but allow plenty of yards through the air. The term “funnel” was very buzzworthy a few years ago for fantasy football players and just might fit the Eagles. Philadelphia stuffs the box and completely shuts down opposing ground attacks but cannot help but cede big play after big play through the air. Montgomery in a crowded backfield does not feel like a good proposition. Give me the under before this gets bet further down.
My Pick: Under 51.5 Rushing Yards -124
NFL Betting Picks Week 9 — WR Player Prop for Jets at Dolphins
Robby Anderson Over/Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
The Jets travel to Miami with a beleaguered quarterback, coach, well… everyone. The organization is a mess. The trade deadline caused a stir. Sam Darnold is seeing ghosts. What is going on?
While Casper might be on Darnold’s radar, he also has had eyes for Robby Anderson since returning from his bout with the kissing disease. Anderson has not been very efficient with his targets but has seen several opportunities. Since Darnold’s return, Anderson has 6, 8, and 8 targets with a huge game against the Cowboys where he caught a 99-yard touchdown. Anderson is not a chain-mover but is always a threat to get loose.
Speaking of getting loose, the Dolphins’ secondary has a habit of allowing WR1’s to have a big game. Here’s a list.
Week 8 — JuJu Smith-Schuster – 5 catches, 103 receiving yards
Week 7 — John Brown – 5 catches, 83 receiving yards
Week 6 — Terry McLaurin – 4 catches, 100 receiving yards
Week 4 — Keenan Allen – 5 catches, 48 yards
Week 3 — Amari Cooper – 6 catches, 88 yards
Week 2 — Antonio Brown – 4 catches, 56 yards
Week 1 — Marquise Brown – 4 catches, 147 yards
All of the downfield threats on the above list feasted on the Dolphins’ secondary with the endzone truly being the only boundary stopping opposing receivers from accumulating more yards. Allen and Antonio Brown are not — were not — downfield receivers anymore. The receivers on the list with an extra gear had no trouble against Miami.
This receiving prop can be topped with one catch but my guess is Robby Anderson will see enough targets to get the job done. A John Brown game from a couple of weeks ago feels very appropriate with Marquise Brown being the true ceiling. Give me the over.
My Pick: Over 41.5 Receiving Yards -102
Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 9 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 9 betting picks.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images