NFL Betting Picks Week 1: Player Props for Packers at Bears
The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears square off in Soldier Field Thursday night to kick off NFL Week 1. Online sports betting sites have released a menu of interesting player props for the game. Here are some NFL betting tips along with our favorite NFL player props for Thursday Night Football.
For a more in-depth betting breakdown, read Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Odds, Preview, NFL Betting Picks Week 1.
Update: We’ve added two more NFL player props and Monkey Knife Fight plays. Read More NFL Betting Tips, Player Props for Packers at Bears to find out why a Geronimo Allison receiving prop is my favorite bet for Thursday night.
NFL Betting Picks Week 1 — QB Player Props for Packers at Bears
Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 271.5 Pass Yards (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers debut their new offense under first-year head coach Matt LaFleur. It’s the first time in over a decade that the Packers have truly changed up their offensive approach, and the biggest change comes with LaFleur’s emphasis on the running game. In 2018, the Packers ran the ball a league-low 32.46% of the time. By making passing plays less predictable, this could help Rodgers’ efficiency, but it also presents a valuable opportunity to bet Under on Rodgers’ player props.
Moreover, last time Rodgers played at Soldier Field he threw for 274 yards on 42 pass attempts. I’d be shocked if he throws that many times Thursday night.
My Pick: Under 271.5 Pass Yards
Mitchell Trubisky Over/Under 245.5 Pass Yards (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)
Mitchell Trubisky averaged 230.2 pass yards in 2018, but that’s not what’s important here. With player props, we want to focus on median projections. Last season, Trubisky threw for 235 yards or fewer in nine of 17 games, plus a game of 246 yards. In his two games against the Packers, Trubisky threw for 171 and 235 yards, respectively. Trubisky’s lack of production in the air was in part due to the Bears’ success on the ground. The Bears combined for 240 yards rushing against the Packers No. 23-ranked DVOA run defense. Green Bay added pass rushers Z’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, which should help put pressure on Trubisky Thursday night. Trubisky won’t be afraid to use his legs to evade the Packers’ new defensive front. Along with the two Smiths, Green Bay also added former Bears safety Adrian Amos. I lean towards the Under here, but I like Rodgers’ Under a lot more.
Note: If you want the Over, you can find Trubisky Over 237.5 pass yards at FanDuel (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds).
NFL Betting Picks Week 1 — RB Player Props for Packers at Bears
David Montgomery Over/Under 57.5 Rush Yards (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds).
Speaking of the Chicago Bears running attack, there’s a new lead back in the Windy City. The Bears coaching staff is so bullish on the guy that they’re pinching themselves now that they have him. Chicago used their third-round draft pick to select Iowa State running back David Montgomery, who takes over for Jordan Howard. As we mentioned above, the Packers struggled to stop the run in 2018. Despite that, LaFleur banned live tackling from the Packers’ offseason regimen. After Green Bay’s defense missed 19 tackles in their Week 2 preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens, it’s one of the bigger issues of concern to start the season.
Montgomery’s history of elusiveness ought to put the Packers defense on high alert. Per PFF, Montgomery forced 185 missed tackles in his sophomore and junior seasons, more than any other running back from the 2019 NFL draft class over that same span. The presence of Tarik Cohen could cause mild trepidation for Over bettors, but most of Cohen’s production will come in the air. If last season’s blueprint means anything, Cohen shouldn’t take away more than 5-7 carries from the rookie.
My Pick: Over 57.5 Rush yards
Aaron Jones Over/Under 51.5 Rush Yards (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)
Only two Green Bay running backs have reached 1000 yards since Aaron Rodgers took over for Brett Favre. That could change in 2019, as LaFleur brings a new offense to Wisconsin. LaFleur was previously the quarterbacks coach in Atlanta (2015-16) before taking offensive coordinating jobs with the Los Angeles Rams (‘17) and Tennessee Titans (‘18). During those years, LaFleur saw Devonta Freeman lead the league in rushing touchdowns (‘15) and Gurley lead both categories in 2017. Most recently, LaFleur oversaw Derrick Henry first 1000-yard rushing season, where Henry’s 12 touchdowns tied for third in the league behind only Gurley and Kamara. Jones will be the lead back for the Packers, in front of Jamaal Williams. While I’m bullish on Jones overall, I’ll pass on betting against 2018’s No. 2 DVOA-rated run defense. Instead, I’ll wait and see how Week 1 plays out for the Jones and the Packers offense.
Note: If you want the Under, you can find Jones Under 54.5 rush yards at Pointsbet (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)
Be sure to use Rotogrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 1 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 1 betting picks.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images