NFL DFS First Look: Super Bowl - Odds and Matchup Preview
Find out Noto’s favorite bets for the Super Bowl!
NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines
| Road Team | Home Team | Line | Total | Road Total | Home Total | Date | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | KCC-3.0 | 56.0 | 29.5 | 26.5 | Sunday | 6:30 pm |
Implied Team Totals, DVOA Rankings, and DVP Matchups
| Offense | Line | Total | Opp. | DVOA | vs. PASS | vs. RUN | DvP – QB | DvP – RB | DvP – WR | DvP – TE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3.0 | 29.5 | TBB | 5 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 23 | 23 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3.0 | 26.5 | KCC | 22 | 16 | 31 | 25 | 25 | 2 | 26 |
Adjusted Sack Rates
| Defensive Line | ASR | Opp. O-Line | ASR | Sack Potential | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 2 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4 | 1 |
Adjusted Line Yards
| Offensive Line | ALY | Opp. D-Line | ALY | Run Potential | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 | 2 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 25 | 1 |
Pace of Play
| Team | Sec/Play | Sit. Neut. | Opponent | Sec/Play | Sit. Neut. | Game Avg. | Game Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 13 | 7 | TBB | 9 | 4 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9 | 4 | KCC | 13 | 7 | 8.3 | 1 |
Quarterbacks
| Player | Team | Line | Total | DK Sal | FD Sal | YH Sal | Pass Y/G | Rush Y/G | FPPG | Opponent | DVOA | DVP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KCC | -3.0 | 29.5 | $12,000 | $15,000 | $81 | 316.0 | 20.5 | 25.2 | TBB | 5 | 18 |
| Tom Brady | TBB | 3.0 | 26.5 | $10,000 | $13,500 | $70 | 289.6 | 0.4 | 22.0 | KCC | 16 | 25 |
Running Backs
| Player | Team | Line | Total | DK Sal | FD Sal | YH Sal | Car/G | Tar/G | RZ/G | FPPG | Opp. | DVOA | DVP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | TBB | 3.0 | 26.5 | $7,800 | $11,000 | $29 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 10.2 | KCC | 31 | 25 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KCC | -3.0 | 29.5 | $7,000 | $8,500 | $23 | 13.9 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 13.5 | TBB | 1 | 7 |
| Darrel Williams | KCC | -3.0 | 29.5 | $5,200 | $8,000 | $17 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 3.3 | TBB | 1 | 7 |
| Ronald Jones | TBB | 3.0 | 26.5 | $2,200 | $7,000 | $21 | 13.7 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 13.6 | KCC | 31 | 25 |
| Le’Veon Bell | KCC | -3.0 | 29.5 | $800 | $5,000 | $14 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 6.8 | TBB | 1 | 7 |
Wide Receivers
| Player | Team | Line | Total | DK Sal | FD Sal | YH Sal | Tar/G | RZ/G | FPPG | Opponent | DVP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | KCC | -3.0 | 29.5 | $10,400 | $12,500 | $42 | #N/A | #DIV/0! | #N/A | TBB | 23 |
| Chris Godwin | TBB | 3.0 | 26.5 | $8,800 | $10,500 | $33 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 15.9 | KCC | 2 |
| Mike Evans | TBB | 3.0 | 26.5 | $8,400 | $10,000 | $30 | 6.8 | 1.1 | 15.5 | KCC | 2 |
| Antonio Brown | TBB | 3.0 | 26.5 | $6,200 | $8,000 | $26 | 7.8 | 0.6 | 14.6 | KCC | 2 |
| Mecole Hardman | KCC | -3.0 | 29.5 | $5,600 | $6,500 | $16 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 7.8 | TBB | 23 |
| Sammy Watkins | KCC | -3.0 | 29.5 | $4,200 | $6,500 | $17 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 9.1 | TBB | 23 |
| Scotty Miller | TBB | 3.0 | 26.5 | $3,400 | $5,000 | $11 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 6.4 | KCC | 2 |
| Byron Pringle | KCC | -3.0 | 29.5 | $1,800 | $4,500 | $10 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.7 | TBB | 23 |
| Demarcus Robinson | KCC | -3.0 | 29.5 | $1,400 | $4,000 | $13 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 6.9 | TBB | 23 |
| Tyler Johnson | TBB | 3.0 | 26.5 | $1,200 | $4,000 | $12 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 2.9 | KCC | 2 |
Tight Ends
| Player | Team | Line | Total | DK Sal | FD Sal | YH Sal | Tar/G | RZ/G | FPPG | Opponent | DVP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | KCC | -3.0 | 29.5 | $11,000 | $13,000 | $44 | #N/A | #DIV/0! | #N/A | TBB | 23 |
| Cameron Brate | TBB | 3.0 | 26.5 | $4,800 | $6,000 | $16 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 4.3 | KCC | 26 |
| Rob Gronkowski | TBB | 3.0 | 26.5 | $3,000 | $5,500 | $12 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 9.3 | KCC | 26 |
| Nick Keizer | KCC | -3.0 | 29.5 | $200 | $3,000 | $10 | 0.6 | #N/A | 0.8 | TBB | 23 |