The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Bears vs. Panthers
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Bears vs. Panthers, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bears vs. Panthers
Happy Thursday and happy Week 10!
We kick off the week with a real slug-fest between the Bears and Panthers. If you take out the people that aren’t fans of these teams, the people that bet, and the people that play fantasy football, I’m not sure there would be anyone left watching this game. I kind of like these ugly Showdown slates because if we set our expectations low enough, it’s hard to be disappointed. On top of that, people are less likely to put in extra research for a game they expect to be bad. At the very least, we should have a close game. The spread is set at 3.5 points, and the total is set at 38.5 points.
Key Injuries
Khalil Herbert – Out
Justin Fields – Doubtful
DJ Chark – Doubtful
Laviska Shenault – Out
Chicago Bears Preview
The Bears were hoping to have Justin Fields back for this one but have already named Tyson Bagent as the starter. This will be his fifth appearance of the season and his fourth start. The Bears haven’t asked him to do too much offensively, yet he’s managed to score 13, 13, and 20 fantasy points in his three starts. Those are outings Zach Wilson could only dream of. Apologies for the drive-by Zach. Bagent is playing at home and facing a defense that has been very mediocre against the pass. I won’t be using him at CPT/MVP but will have exposure to him in the utility spots.
The best way to attack the Panthers this season has been on the ground. They are dead last in both DVOA against the run and rush EPA and have also allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to running backs. They have been so bad against the run that opposing teams don’t really try to air it out against them. With an inexperienced quarterback under center, I expect the Bears to lean heavily on the ground game.
After Khalil Herbert practiced in full on Tuesday, it was looking like he would return to the lineup this week. However, the Bears ruled him out this morning. This makes the slate a lot easier on the lineup building front. Even with Roschon Johnson back in the lineup last week, D’Onta Foreman dominated the snaps (65%) and the touches (20). He’s not going to be the RB1 in this offense for long, but he will be tonight against the worst run defense in the league. I would even consider using both running backs, as the matchup and game script could support big outings from both Foreman and Johnson.
The Bears actually have two very good pass catchers in DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, but there are a couple of problems. The Bears want to throw the ball as little as possible, and this matchup sets up extremely well for the running game. I have a hard time seeing Bagent throwing the ball 30+ times like he has the last two games unless the Bears dig themselves a hole early and are forced to air it out. I don’t think the Panthers actually have a good pass defense, but they are ranked 4th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 8th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Again, it’s likely because teams just run the ball a bunch against Carolina. Darnell Mooney is a tad too pricey for my liking, but Tyler Scott and Velus Jones should see snaps at the stone-minimum on DraftKings ($200).
We have conflicting information when it comes to these defenses. They are both bad, and neither can get much pressure on the quarterback, yet they are facing awful offensive lines and bad quarterbacks. Anything is possible in this game, so don’t count out the Bears D/ST. In low-scoring games, field goals can be more valuable, which makes Cairo Santos a strong option.
Carolina Panthers Preview
We just went through the entire Bears offense, and I don’t feel good about a single play outside of Herbert. Let’s hope there’s more to like on the Panthers. Bryce Young was strangely popular last week against the Colts and was held under 15 fantasy points for the sixth time in seven games. There’s a strong case to go back to the well, as the Bears are ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass and 31st in dropback EPA. I have yet to partake in the Young Kool-Aid but will be sipping some this evening.
The Panthers said they were going to split carries between Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders, but for the second straight week, the former led the way. He played on 65% of snaps against the Colts and turned 20 touches into 64 yards. His efficiency the last two games has been downright ugly, but we can expect him to get the majority of the work against the Bears. The problem is that Chicago is quietly ranked 7th in DVOA against the run and 3rd in rush EPA this season.
The Panthers are expected to be without both DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault, which means we have a pretty clear 3-receiver set in Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, and Terrace Marshall. Thielen let a lot of people down last week at his highest price point of the season, so it will be interesting to see if that persuades people to fade him in Showdown. I see this as an elite bounce-back spot against a team that is a pass-funnel. Mingo and Marshall are two of the best per-dollar options of the slate. Hayden Hurst and Tommy Tremble are splitting work at tight end. They will likely need a touchdown to find their way onto the optimal lineup.
I don’t have a ton of interest in either defense, but I certainly have less interest in the Panthers. All teams do against them is run the ball. It’s hard to get pressure on the quarterback if he’s not throwing the ball often. Again, anything can happen, but I’ll take my chances with a fade of this bad defense. I will have some shares of Eddy Pineiro.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Honestly, I think we just trust the matchups in this game. The Panthers are the best run-funnel matchup in the NFL, and the Bears are a top-2 pass-funnel matchup. Now that Herbert has been ruled out, Foreman is one of the easiest clicks on the slate. You can pair him with Johnson, or a player or two from the passing game. For Carolina, I will be stacking the passing game with Young and company. And when it comes to defense and special teams, I prefer the kickers over the defenses.
Bears-Panthers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | CAR | WR | 16.76 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 1.42 | $15,000 | 1.12 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | QB | 14.64 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.49 | $14,500 | 1.01 |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | QB | 14.35 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.56 | $16,000 | 0.90 |
| D’Onta Foreman | CHI | RB | 13.23 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.54 | $11,500 | 1.15 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 12.55 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.57 | $12,500 | 1.00 |
| D.J. Moore | CHI | WR | 12.41 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.17 | $13,000 | 0.95 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 10.42 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.58 | $10,500 | 0.99 |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | K | 8.13 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.63 | $9,000 | 0.90 |
| Bears | CHI | DST | 7.47 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.62 | $9,500 | 0.79 |
| Panthers | CAR | DST | 7.42 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.86 | $8,500 | 0.87 |
| Jonathan Mingo | CAR | WR | 7.39 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.64 | $7,500 | 0.99 |
| Darnell Mooney | CHI | WR | 7.38 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.00 | $10,000 | 0.74 |
| Eddy Pineiro | CAR | K | 7.14 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.62 | $8,500 | 0.84 |
| Miles Sanders | CAR | RB | 6.89 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.33 | $9,500 | 0.73 |
| Terrace Marshall | CAR | WR | 6.30 | $400 | $600 | 15.75 | $7,000 | 0.90 |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | RB | 6.22 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.73 | $7,000 | 0.89 |
| Hayden Hurst | CAR | TE | 4.66 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 0.97 | $8,000 | 0.58 |
| Darrynton Evans | CHI | RB | 3.40 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.89 | $6,500 | 0.52 |
| Tyler Scott | CHI | WR | 3.04 | $200 | $300 | 15.20 | $6,000 | 0.51 |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR | TE | 3.03 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.26 | $6,000 | 0.51 |
| Robert Tonyan | CHI | TE | 2.15 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.54 | $6,000 | 0.36 |
| Raheem Blackshear | CAR | RB | 2.10 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.10 | $5,500 | 0.38 |
| Velus Jones | CHI | WR | 1.67 | $200 | $300 | 8.35 | $5,500 | 0.30 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | CAR | WR | 1.48 | $200 | $300 | 7.40 | $5,000 | 0.30 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Look, kickers are never contrarian on Showdown slates, but they are rarely the most popular plays on the slate. Given how bad both of these defenses are, these teams should be able to move the ball up and down the field. Given how bad both of these offenses are, we shouldn’t be surprised if a lot of drives stall out in the red zone.
Bears vs. Panthers Player Pick’em
Adam Thielen more than 6.5 Receptions (1.81x) – Sleeper
I even tried to jinx the hot streak on Monday night by talking about the hot streak, and not even that could slow us down. Keenan Allen caught more than 6.5 passes, which means we have hit something in the neighborhood of 10 of the last 11 props and fantasy pick’ems on Showdown slates. Let’s keep it going with Thielen hauling in more than 6.5 receptions. He’s caught at least 7 passes in six of his last seven games and now gets to face a defense that is a clear pass-funnel. The Panthers have struggled to run the ball all season, so they will likely employ a pass-heavy game plan.