The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Bills vs. Giants
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Bills vs. Giants, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Bills vs. Giants
We are back for another showdown slate. I hope everyone has enjoyed their Sunday thus far, and I hope your “currently winning” screens are green. For Sunday night, we turn our attention to a game that probably looked better to the schedule makers a few months ago. The Bills have played as well as expected, but the Giants have been one of the most underwhelming teams in football. Tonight’s game features a 15.5-point spread and a 44-point total. According to Kevin Roth’s forecast, we have some potential light rain and 10-15 MPH wind.
Key Injuries
Daniel Jones – Out
Saquon Barkley – Questionable/Probable
Darren Waller – Questionable/Probable
Dawson Knox – Questionable/Probable
Dalton Kincaid – Questionable
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Bills have been up and down all season, but we can’t blame them too much for a loss last week against the Jaguars. They were coming off of a big win against the Dolphins the week before, while the Jaguars were playing their second game in London in as many weeks. Buffalo will almost certainly bounce back tonight against the Giants. They’ll be able to attack this matchup any way that they want, as New York is in the bottom seven in pass DVOA, dropback EPA, rush DVOA, and rush EPA.
Josh Allen is firmly in play as your MVP and Captain, as he offers a high floor and a high ceiling. He’s one of the few quarterbacks capable of getting 20+ fantasy points through the air and 10+ fantasy points on the ground. The Giants do not defend the pass well and are dead last in pressure rate this season. Good luck holding Allen and this passing attack in check. It doesn’t matter how many lineups you build tonight- I don’t see a scenario where I would consider fading him in any of them.
Stefon Diggs remains the alpha in this receiving room, racking up a 28% target share and a 40% air yards share this season. He’s scored four touchdowns in the last two games and is squaring off against a secondary that has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Diggs is the one player capable of scoring more fantasy points than Allen in this game. I like the idea of using the more volatile wideouts in this offense in tournaments. Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty, Quintin Morris, and Trent Sherfield are all viable in this game, especially if Dalton Kincaid is unable to suit up.
It’s been a strange season for James Cook. He was extremely efficient in the first few games, but was constantly getting taken out of the game near the goal line and on third downs. He saw a goal line carry a couple weeks ago (and converted it) and was more involved in the passing game last week. We can expect the yardage to be there tonight against a bad Giants defense, but his upside will ultimately come down to whether he scores and how many targets he sees. The game has blowout potential, so we could certainly see some extra run for Latavius Murray and / or Damien Harris. This is a rare showdown slate where I don’t mind using two running backs from the same team.
This seems like a matchup made in heaven for the Bills defense. They are first in the NFL in sacks per game, while the Giants have allowed more sacks than any team in the NFL. Don’t be afraid to play Buffalo’s D/ST here and potentially even at Captain on DraftKings. Tyler Bass is also on my radar in Bills onslaughts.
New York Giants Preview
The Giants have been a tough team to watch this season and we can expect more of the same tonight. Daniel Jones has been ruled out, which means veteran Tyrod Taylor will be under center for the Giants. He still offers some rushing upside and has a little more patience in the pocket than Jones, but this offensive line has allowed the highest pressure rate in the league. Taylor is still my favorite play from the Giants, and I don’t mind pairing him with four or five players from the other team.
The Giants like to use a rotation at wide receiver. We’ve seen Wan’Dale Robinson play a lot more snaps recently, but that hasn’t turned into fantasy production. His aDOT is extremely low, but at least that means the catches should come a little easier. We have him projected for more points than the other receivers lining up for the Giants. Darius Slayton is a good bet to lead the team in snaps, but he runs most of his routes down the field, and the Giants haven’t had time to get him the ball.
I’m not sure why Isaiah Hodgins is so expensive here, especially since his playing time has been trending in the wrong direction. While that will translate to lower ownership, I don’t plan to go there myself. If punting, I prefer taking a shot on Parris Campbell or Jalin Hyatt. The best chance the Giants have to move the ball in this one is with Darren Waller. He finally came alive last week, catching 8-of-11 targets for 86 yards. There are pros and cons with rostering him here — he could soak up usage in a pass-happy game script, but rostering him does limit the number of Bills you can use.
I want no part of the Giants D/ST and don’t love the game script for their kicker. If they get down big, they will likely go for it on fourth downs in lieu of kicking field goals.
Favorite Lineup Construction
My favorite lineup construction is similar to what the masses are going to build — load up on the Bills and then see what’s left over to fit in a Giants’ player or two. The difference is that I will be playing Tyrod Taylor in every lineup, either as a flex or as an MVP (on DraftKings). You can pair him up with one of his cheaper receivers, but there’s a path where he can get there with rushing production alone.
Bills-Giants DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 24.28 | $12,800 | $19,200 | 1.90 | $17,500 | 1.39 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 20.61 | $12,200 | $18,300 | 1.69 | $16,000 | 1.29 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | RB | 15.20 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.38 | $14,500 | 1.05 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 13.37 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.45 | $11,000 | 1.22 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYG | QB | 13.31 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.42 | $13,500 | 0.99 |
| Gabriel Davis | BUF | WR | 11.26 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.44 | $12,000 | 0.94 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 10.10 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.53 | $10,000 | 1.01 |
| Darren Waller | NYG | TE | 9.76 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.32 | $10,500 | 0.93 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 8.98 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.87 | $9,000 | 1.00 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 7.43 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.62 | $8,500 | 0.87 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 7.27 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.91 | $7,500 | 0.97 |
| Deonte Harty | BUF | WR | 6.18 | $600 | $900 | 10.30 | $6,500 | 0.95 |
| Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 6.12 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.18 | $8,500 | 0.72 |
| Graham Gano | NYG | K | 5.53 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.26 | $9,000 | 0.61 |
| Parris Campbell | NYG | WR | 5.14 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.14 | $6,000 | 0.86 |
| Latavius Murray | BUF | RB | 4.45 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.24 | $8,000 | 0.56 |
| Damien Harris | BUF | RB | 4.38 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 2.43 | $6,000 | 0.73 |
| Giants | NYG | DST | 3.40 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.00 | $8,000 | 0.43 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | NYG | WR | 3.32 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 0.54 | $7,500 | 0.44 |
| Matt Breida | NYG | RB | 3.14 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 0.54 | $9,500 | 0.33 |
| Jalin Hyatt | NYG | WR | 2.77 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.31 | $7,000 | 0.40 |
| Trent Sherfield | BUF | WR | 2.64 | $200 | $300 | 13.20 | $5,500 | 0.48 |
| Quintin Morris | BUF | TE | 2.62 | $200 | $300 | 13.10 | $5,000 | 0.52 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 2.10 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.63 | $5,500 | 0.38 |
| Daniel Bellinger | NYG | TE | 1.31 | $200 | $300 | 6.55 | $5,500 | 0.24 |
| Sterling Shepard | NYG | WR | 0.84 | $200 | $300 | 4.20 | $5,500 | 0.15 |
| Reggie Gilliam | BUF | RB | 0.72 | $200 | $300 | 3.60 | $5,500 | 0.13 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty, Quintin Morris, and Trent Sherfield
The term sleeper doesn’t have to apply to just one player. Given the large spread in the game and the fact that there’s a good chance Dalton Kincaid is out, I think we see a lot more of these cheap Bills’ wideouts. These are more DraftKings plays than FanDuel plays given the fact that a few catches is all that’s needed to really make a difference. My favorite of the four is Shakir, but I don’t mind mixing and matching them if you are building multiple lineups.
Bills vs. Giants Player Props
Tyrod Taylor more than 23.5 rushing yards (1.75x) – Sleeper
Even though he’s getting up there in age (34), Taylor is still a very mobile quarterback. He’s going to have to be mobile tonight, as he plays behind the worst pass-blocking unit in football. To make matters worse, the Bills lead the NFL in sacks per game. Taylor is going to be running early and often in this game, so I’ll take “more than” 23.5 rushing yards. In very limited action last week, he had three rushing attempts for 14 yards.