The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Browns vs. Jets
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Browns vs. Jets, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Browns vs. Jets
The Browns and Jets both had playoff hopes heading into the season and both suffered season-ending injuries to key players on offense. The Browns lost Nick Chubb and the Jets lost Aaron Rodgers. It wasn’t looking too great for Cleveland until they gave veteran Joe Flacco a start under center. The team hasn’t looked back ever since. They are now 10-5 in the standings and have a very small chance of catching the Ravens for the division title. The Jets haven’t been able to show any consistency on offense and are 6-9 in the standings. This game features two of the best three defenses in the NFL, which helps explain why the total is set at only 35 points.
Key Injuries
Amari Cooper – Questionable
Dustin Hopkins – Out
Zach Wilson – Out
Allen Lazard – Questionable
Israel Abanikanda – Questionable
Greg Zuerlein – Questionable
Cleveland Browns Preview
The Browns have gone from being one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL to being one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL. In the four starts with Joe Flacco under center, he has 42, 44, 45, and 44 pass attempts. Volume doesn’t always lead to production at quarterback, but it has in this case. Flacco has averaged 23.8 fantasy points per game this season. He draws a difficult matchup against the Jets, who are 3rd in DVOA against the pass and 2nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Given the fact that Flacco doesn’t have any rushing upside, I prefer him as a FLEX play rather than as an MVP or CPT.
Since taking over as the starter, Flacco has had two clear favorites in the passing game. He has targeted Amari Cooper 42 times and David Njoku 39 times. Each wideout has broken one of the last three slates. Cooper put up 54.5 fantasy points against the Texans last week, while Njoku put up 27.1 and 29.4 fantasy points the previous two weeks. The matchup clearly sets up better for one than the other, as the Jets have allowed the fewest receiving yards and the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Meanwhile, they have allowed the 15th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
If the Jets sell out to stop Cooper after his big game last week, that could open things up for the ancillary wideouts on the Browns. Elijah Moore has nice chemistry with Flacco thanks to their days together on the Jets. This is a double-revenge game if you are into that sort of thing. Cedric Tillman will serve as the WR3 and has seen his role grow over the last few weeks. He is now regularly playing on 70% of the snaps. He’s an intriguing punt on DraftKings ($3,000). Harrison Bryant has only seen 2 targets over the last 3 games combined.
The Browns’ offensive line has dealt with a ton of injuries this season, which could help explain the lack of efficiency from this running game. Jerome Ford has 44 carries for only 115 yards over the last 4 games. During that same stretch, Kareem Hunt has 36 carries for 94 yards. The positive for both is that they are facing the Jets, who have been vulnerable against the run this season. They are 13th in DVOA against the run and have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to running backs this season. On a per-dollar basis, I slightly prefer Hunt over Ford, although I plan to have exposure to both backs.
The Browns’ defense is one of the best plays of the slate (at least on paper). They are 2nd in pressure rate, while the Jets have allowed the 9th most sacks per game. On top of that, they are facing Trevor Siemian as home favorites. Kicker Dustin Hopkins has been ruled out, so Riley Patterson will draw the start. He’s a very capable kicker and this could be a good spot for the kicking game.
New York Jets Preview
It’s been an ugly year for the quarterbacks on this roster. Aaron Rodgers went down, Zach Wilson was fairly awful in most of his starts, and Trevor Siemian hasn’t been much better. Even with 49 pass attempts against the worst pass defense in the NFL last week, Siemian finished with only 12.5 fantasy points. This week he has a much tougher matchup. He has to go on the road to face the Browns, who are 2nd in DVOA against the pass and 5th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Siemian is viable given the nature of showdown but far from a priority.
Garrett Wilson is one of the most talented receivers in the NFL, but he hasn’t had a good quarterback throwing him the ball at any point in his career. Siemian has targeted him more than any of the other wideouts on the roster, but that hasn’t led to a lot of production. To make matters worse, the Browns have allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. I do prefer Wilson over Siemian if choosing between the two because the former could get 6 receptions for 75 yards and potentially outscore the latter.
All I can say about the rest of the wide receiver room is good luck picking and choosing among them. The matchup is awful, and we have Xavier Gipson, Jason Brownlee, and Allen Lazard all projected to score between 1.6 and 4.3 fantasy points. You can mix and match them in your MME builds, but I wouldn’t look their way in cash games or small-field tournaments. Tyler Conklin is easily my second-favorite receiving option on the Jets. He’s seen the 2nd-most targets with Siemian under center, but I will note that the Browns have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Breece Hall has seen his snap share and touch totals go up and down all season. With nothing to play for, it was a tad surprising to see him set season highs in snaps (77%) and touches (32). If you didn’t have him last week, you weren’t going to finish near the top of any tournaments. The same can be said about Cooper on the other side of this game. The Browns are 1st in the NFL in DVOA against the run, so Hall will have his work cut out for him in this one. The biggest positive is that Siemian likes to check the ball down, which could result in a nice PPR game for Hall even if he doesn’t find the end zone. Israel Abanikanda will mix in here and there and is a decent punt on DraftKings ($2,200).
While I love the resurgence from Flacco, he’s certainly one to take a lot of chances down the field. We generally want to target defenses that are expected to face a lot of pass attempts, and the Browns have been throwing it as much as anyone recently. I’m on board with the Jets’ defense in this one. Kicker Greg Zuerlein is questionable, so keep an eye on his status leading up to kickoff.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This game has one of the lowest totals that we have seen all season. The game features two of the best defenses in the NFL and two quarterbacks who aren’t exactly great at taking care of the ball. I’m willing to build double-defense lineups in this one, and I will likely have at least one of the two defenses in each lineup that I build. If the onslaught is going to work, I have to think it will be the Cleveland side and not the New York side. We have at least seen high ceilings from Joe Flacco, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku recently.
Browns-Jets DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 17.90 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.63 | $15,000 | 1.19 |
| Amari Cooper | CLE | WR | 13.57 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.21 | $14,500 | 0.94 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | QB | 13.28 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.25 | $16,500 | 0.80 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 13.12 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.34 | $11,500 | 1.14 |
| Jerome Ford | CLE | RB | 12.50 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.49 | $12,000 | 1.04 |
| Trevor Siemian | NYJ | QB | 11.29 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.28 | $13,500 | 0.84 |
| David Njoku | CLE | TE | 10.85 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.39 | $11,000 | 0.99 |
| Browns | CLE | DST | 10.48 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.87 | $10,000 | 1.05 |
| Jets | NYJ | DST | 8.56 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 2.14 | $9,000 | 0.95 |
| Elijah Moore | CLE | WR | 8.08 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.22 | $8,000 | 1.01 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | 7.50 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.50 | $8,000 | 0.94 |
| Kareem Hunt | CLE | RB | 7.07 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.36 | $9,500 | 0.74 |
| Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | K | 5.99 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.30 | $8,500 | 0.70 |
| Xavier Gipson | NYJ | WR | 4.37 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.37 | $7,500 | 0.58 |
| Israel Abanikanda | NYJ | RB | 3.98 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 1.81 | $7,000 | 0.57 |
| Cedric Tillman | CLE | WR | 3.81 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.27 | $7,500 | 0.51 |
| Jason Brownlee | NYJ | WR | 3.48 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.24 | $7,000 | 0.50 |
| Harrison Bryant | CLE | TE | 2.19 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.56 | $6,500 | 0.34 |
| Kenny Yeboah | NYJ | TE | 2.04 | $200 | $300 | 10.20 | $5,000 | 0.41 |
| Pierre Strong | CLE | RB | 1.96 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.09 | $6,500 | 0.30 |
| Allen Lazard | NYJ | WR | 1.66 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0.69 | $6,500 | 0.26 |
| Dalvin Cook | NYJ | RB | 1.66 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.83 | $7,000 | 0.24 |
| Jordan Akins | CLE | TE | 1.57 | $800 | $1,200 | 1.96 | $6,000 | 0.26 |
| Marquise Goodwin | CLE | WR | 1.51 | $600 | $900 | 2.52 | $5,500 | 0.27 |
| David Bell | CLE | WR | 1.37 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.86 | $6,500 | 0.21 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jets D/ST: $4,000 DK / $9,000 FD
The Jets have one of the top defenses in the league, but they are playing as underdogs on the road. It’s easier to talk yourself into playing the Browns’ defense. The spread suggests they will be playing with a lead. However, we shouldn’t concern ourselves with points allowed when it comes to choosing a defense. We want quarterback pressures and turnovers. The Jets do both of those well, and we’ve seen Joe Flacco throw 5 interceptions over the last 2 games.
Browns vs. Jets Player Pick’em
Season record: 33-17
30-9 over the last 39 games
Kareem Hunt more than 27.5 rushing yards (1.78x) – Sleeper
After the Niners settled for a field goal early in the first quarter, I thought we were well on our way to another win. Unfortunately, Brock Purdy couldn’t throw the ball to the right team and the Niners couldn’t afford to settle for field goals the rest of the game. We’ll look to get back on track with Kareem Hunt to get more than 27.5 rushing yards. Over the last 4 games, he has played on 35% of the snaps and has averaged 9 carries per game. The Browns have been throwing the ball a ton recently, but we could see a run-heavier approach this week. The Jets have allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to running backs this season.
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