The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Buccaneers vs. Eagles
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Buccaneers vs. Eagles, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Buccaneers vs. Eagles
The final game on Wild Card Weekend should be a fun one, at least for those of us who play DFS. The Buccaneers didn’t look great in their Week 18 win over the Panthers, but it was enough for them to win the NFC South and host a first-round playoff game. The Eagles limped down the stretch of the regular season, losing 5 of their last 6 games and the NFC East crown in the process. Can the Eagles right the ship and make a playoff run, or are they in trouble here in Tampa Bay? Only time will tell. The game features a 2.5-point spread and a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Baker Mayfield – Questionable [expected to play]
A.J. Brown – Out
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
Baker Mayfield has been dealing with an ankle injury and a rib injury, but he is expected to suit up on Monday night. There are positives and negatives here. On the one hand, he didn’t look 100% in last week’s game against the Panthers (137 passing yards and 0 touchdowns). On the other hand, he has a dream matchup against the Eagles. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 29th in DVOA against the pass and 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I won’t be looking to Mayfield at MVP/CPT but will get plenty of exposure to him in the FLEX.
This is somewhat amusing, as Chris Godwin has led the Buccaneers in target share ever since his wife went on a rant on social media. She honestly made some great points. Whether that coincidentally aligned with Godwin being more involved or if the coaching staff took notice is anyone’s guess. Either way, Godwin has seen a 26% target share over the last 5 games. Mike Evans has already caught 13 touchdowns this season and leads the team in air yards share (40%). Both are excellent options against the Eagles, who have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL this season.
The Buccaneers might mix in David Moore, Rakim Jarrett, and Deven Thompkins, but Trey Palmer should get most of the WR3 snaps in this game. He’s seen at least 5 targets in 6 of the last 8 games, which makes him an intriguing option for showdown. The Eagles haven’t been much better at defending tight ends, as they have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to the position. Cade Otton has a 12% target share on the season and could be a difference-maker if he catches a touchdown.
Rachaad White wasn’t great in the final 2 games of the regular season, but he had a stretch where he scored at least 17.8 fantasy points in 8 straight games. He has only averaged 3.8 yards per carry this season, but he has scored 9 touchdowns and has been a big part of the passing game. This is certainly a nice matchup, as the Eagles are 22nd in DVOA against the run and 30th in rush EPA. With Mayfield nursing injuries, there’s a chance he checks the ball down often in this one.
The Buccaneers’ defense is one of the more polarizing plays on the slate. The Eagles have not been good recently, they are missing their best wide receiver, and they will likely air it out often in this game. There’s certainly a path for Tampa Bay to create some turnovers. Kicker Chase McLaughlin is one of my favorite values on the slate.
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
If the Eagles are booted in the first round of the playoffs, it will be interesting to see what stories come out. Something has been off all season. I’m not sure if the coaching staff has lost the locker room or if there is inner turmoil with the players, but this is not the same team that nearly won the Super Bowl last year. Jalen Hurts has continued to put up numbers in fantasy, topping 20 fantasy points in 14 of 17 games. A large part of that has been the “tush push,” which has generated most (potentially all) of his 15 rushing touchdowns. The Buccaneers are a pass-funnel matchup, making him one of the top plays on the slate. He’s firmly in the MVP/CPT discussion.
A.J. Brown has been ruled out of this game, which is obviously a huge absence for the Eagles. On the season, he has a 27% target share and a 43% air yards share. DeVonta Smith should take over as the WR1, while Julio Jones, Quez Watkins, and Olamide Zaccheaus will round out the wide receiver room. The matchup is elite, as the Buccaneers have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. I love the spot for Smith but will also be mixing in Jones, Watkins, and Zaccheaus. Brown’s absence should also open up targets for Dallas Goedert, who faces a team that has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to tight ends.
There are a lot of issues with targeting the Eagles’ running backs in this spot. For starters, they have a brutal matchup on paper. The Buccaneers are 8th in DVOA against the run, 5th in rush EPA, and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. To make matters worse, none of their running backs have the goal-line role because of the “tush push.” The only positive is that D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell are going to be low-owned. Even knowing that, I don’t have much interest in them for DFS.
The Eagles’ defense has been nothing short of awful this season, but they are playing Baker Mayfield. He can make questionable decisions at times and is nursing a couple of injuries. A case can be made for Philly’s defense. Kicker Jake Elliott is a strong option in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This game sets up extremely well for both passing attacks. Right off the bat, I plan to eliminate D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell from my player pool. I will have exposure to Rachaad White on the other side but prefer loading up on these passing games. I also view this as a good spot for both kickers.
Buccaneers-Eagles DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 21.90 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 1.89 | $17,000 | 1.29 |
| Rachaad White | TB | RB | 17.15 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.68 | $13,500 | 1.27 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 16.84 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.72 | $14,000 | 1.20 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 15.53 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.81 | $13,000 | 1.19 |
| Mike Evans | TB | WR | 14.48 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.37 | $15,000 | 0.97 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 12.33 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.93 | $10,000 | 1.23 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | WR | 12.12 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.55 | $11,000 | 1.10 |
| D’Andre Swift | PHI | RB | 11.69 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.62 | $12,500 | 0.94 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | K | 7.89 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.58 | $9,500 | 0.83 |
| Julio Jones | PHI | WR | 6.97 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.83 | $7,500 | 0.93 |
| Chase McLaughlin | TB | K | 6.84 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.43 | $9,000 | 0.76 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 6.09 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.79 | $9,000 | 0.68 |
| Cade Otton | TB | TE | 5.58 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.03 | $8,000 | 0.70 |
| Trey Palmer | TB | WR | 5.47 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.95 | $8,500 | 0.64 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | RB | 5.43 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.29 | $7,500 | 0.72 |
| Quez Watkins | PHI | WR | 5.36 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.79 | $7,000 | 0.77 |
| Buccaneers | TB | DST | 5.29 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.32 | $8,500 | 0.62 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | PHI | WR | 4.50 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.25 | $7,000 | 0.64 |
| Chase Edmonds | TB | RB | 3.88 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 0.88 | $8,000 | 0.49 |
| David Moore | TB | WR | 2.16 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.70 | $5,000 | 0.43 |
| Rakim Jarrett | TB | WR | 1.87 | $200 | $300 | 9.35 | $5,000 | 0.37 |
| Deven Thompkins | TB | WR | 1.59 | $200 | $300 | 7.95 | $6,000 | 0.27 |
| Ko Kieft | TB | TE | 1.32 | $200 | $300 | 6.60 | $5,000 | 0.26 |
| Grant Calcaterra | PHI | TE | 1.30 | $200 | $300 | 6.50 | $5,000 | 0.26 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Chris Godwin: $7,800 DK / $11,000 FD
The story with Godwin’s wife feels like it has gone viral, but that could just be the DFS bubble that we live in. We don’t have ownership projections out at the time of writing this, but I have to think Godwin will be lower-owned than the likes of Hurts, Smith, Mayfield, Evans, and maybe even White. His target share is at 26% over the last 5 games, and he should find plenty of openings against this beatable Eagles secondary.
Buccaneers vs. Eagles Player Pick’em
Season record: 35-21
Chris Godwin more than 4.5 receptions (1.58x) – Sleeper
For all the reasons that I’ve mentioned a couple of times already, I like the more than on Godwin’s reception prop.
Image Credit: Getty Images