The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Chargers vs. Chiefs
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Chargers vs. Chiefs, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Chargers vs. Chiefs
I hope everyone is having or had (depending on when you read this) a good main slate. If not, we can always make up for it with the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate. The Chargers have taken on the characteristics of their new head coach. They are tough, they run the ball, they play good defense, and they take care of the ball. They are unlikely to catch the Chiefs for the division title but are firmly in the mix for a playoff spot with an 8-4 record. The Chiefs are 11-1 on the season and are still undefeated at home. Tonight’s game features a 4-point spread and a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries
JK Dobbins – Out
Ladd McConkey – Questionable
Mecole Hardman – Out
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
The Chiefs have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL and have always played great defense at home, but this is a Showdown slate, and quarterbacks are always solid options. Justin Herbert was quiet in the first 5 games of the season, but he was dealing with a couple of injuries. He has picked up his production over the last 5 games, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in 4 of those games. With JK Dobbins out and this run game struggling, Herbert is viable in all formats tonight. Given his recent rushing upside, he deserves consideration at MVP/CPT.
We obviously have to wait and see if Ladd McConkey is going to play tonight, but let’s take a look at the usage for the Chargers’ wideouts over the last 5 games:
Ladd McConkey: 26% target share, 31% air yards share, 33% first-read rate
Quentin Johnston: 17% target share, 26% air yards share, 19% first-read rate
Josh Palmer: 13% target share, 29% air yards share, 16% first-read rate
Will Dissly: 14% target share, 11% air yards share, 14% first-read rate
McConkey logged limited practices on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. He’s officially listed as questionable, so we’ll have to keep an eye on inactives as we get closer to kickoff. If active, he deserves consideration in all formats. The Chiefs have struggled to defend wide receivers in recent weeks. If McConkey is ruled out, Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, Derius Davis, and Jalen Reagor would all see an uptick in snap share and target potential. Will Dissly has a solid target share (14%) over the last 5 games and gets to face a team that has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
In last week’s game without Dobbins, Gus Edwards played on 53% of the snaps, while Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins played on 40% of the snaps combined. Edwards led the way with only 7 touches, but it’s worth noting that the Chargers didn’t run very many plays in that game. This week, they square off against the Chiefs, who are 5th in EPA against the run and 1st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. This was a run-funnel matchup last season, but that is not the case this season. If targeting any of these backs, I’ll side with Vidal at $2,800 on DraftKings.
The Chargers D/ST has a middling pass rush and is facing an offense that rarely turns the ball over. I have more interest in kicker Cameron Dicker.
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Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Patrick Mahomes has only topped 20 fantasy points in 2 games all season, but he’s had an extremely high floor. He has scored at least 14 fantasy points in every game this season. I typically don’t look his way at CPT on DraftKings since a big game from him would likely mean a bigger game from one of his wideouts, but there aren’t many players I feel better about on a per-dollar basis in this game. He squares off against the Chargers, who are 15th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season.
Let’s look at the usage of Kansas City’s wideouts over the last 5 games:
Deandre Hopkins: 16% target share, 27% air yards share, 20% first-read rate
Xavier Worthy: 12% target share, 23% air yards share, 14% first-read rate
Justin Watson: 6% target share, 15% air yards share, 7% first-read rate
Travis Kelce: 25% target share, 30% air yards share, 29% first-read rate
Noah Gray: 8% target share, 10% air yards share, 9% first-read rate
Travis Kelce has the best usage metrics in this offense, and it’s not even close. He boasts a 25% target share and a 29% first-read rate over the last 5 games. I’m not worried about a difficult matchup against the Chargers, as the Chiefs consistently look for unique ways to get him the ball. Deandre Hopkins continues to have a solid role as the WR1, while Xavier Worthy continues to see a fair share of targets down the field. Noah Gray or Justin Watson could always sneak into the optimal lineup with a touchdown, but they aren’t priorities on this slate.
We are going to see a timeshare at the running back position. With Isiah Pacheco back from injury, he played on 33% of the snaps and had 7 carries. We can expect his role to grow steadily, but it’s not like Kareem Hunt is going anywhere anytime soon. It’s not the best matchup, as the Chargers are 11th or better in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. The biggest issue for me is that both of these running backs are expensive.
The Chiefs D/ST is firmly in play for me tonight. The Chargers might struggle to run the ball again, which could lead to a higher pass rate than usual. That’s always good for the upside of the opposing defense. Harrison Butker is still out, but Matthew Wright has been excellent in his absence.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I usually have a strong take on how I want to approach each showdown slate, but that’s not the case tonight. I don’t expect to have much exposure to the running backs on either team. Surprisingly, I like both of the kickers in this one. Both defenses are stout, so we could see the offenses settle for a lot of field goals. I am also prioritizing both quarterbacks.
Chargers vs. Chiefs DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 19.78 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.83 | $16,000 | 1.24 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 17.93 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.83 | $15,000 | 1.20 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 14.58 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.62 | $13,000 | 1.12 |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 13.97 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.49 | $13,500 | 1.03 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | KC | WR | 11.77 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.40 | $10,000 | 1.18 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 11.68 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.46 | $12,000 | 0.97 |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 10.51 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.50 | $9,500 | 1.11 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 9.95 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.55 | $11,500 | 0.87 |
| Gus Edwards | LAC | RB | 9.40 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.27 | $11,000 | 0.85 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 9.00 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.55 | $9,500 | 0.95 |
| Will Dissly | LAC | TE | 8.96 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.87 | $7,000 | 1.28 |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | WR | 7.84 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.45 | $8,000 | 0.98 |
| Matthew Wright | KC | K | 7.00 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.40 | $9,000 | 0.78 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 6.61 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.65 | $9,000 | 0.73 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 6.59 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.27 | $8,500 | 0.78 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 6.42 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.46 | $8,000 | 0.80 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 6.05 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.68 | $8,500 | 0.71 |
| Kimani Vidal | LAC | RB | 4.89 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.75 | $7,500 | 0.65 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 3.88 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.14 | $7,000 | 0.55 |
| Justin Watson | KC | WR | 3.60 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.20 | $7,500 | 0.48 |
| Derius Davis | LAC | WR | 2.73 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.28 | $5,500 | 0.50 |
| Jalen Reagor | LAC | WR | 2.67 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.67 | $5,500 | 0.49 |
| Samaje Perine | KC | RB | 2.43 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.01 | $6,500 | 0.37 |
| Tucker Fisk | LAC | TE | 2.17 | $600 | $900 | 3.62 | $5,000 | 0.43 |
| DJ Chark | LAC | WR | 1.28 | $800 | $1,200 | 1.60 | $5,500 | 0.23 |
| Hassan Haskins | LAC | RB | 1.20 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.60 | $6,500 | 0.18 |
| Stone Smartt | LAC | TE | 1.08 | $200 | $300 | 5.40 | $6,000 | 0.18 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Cameron Dicker $5,200 DK / $8,500 FD
Given the fact that the Chargers are underdogs, I don’t expect many to pay a premium for Cameron Dicker on the road. However, this game features a low total, and both of these teams have settled for a lot of field goals this season. It rarely happens, but I could see a double-kicker lineup winning this slate.
Chargers vs. Chiefs Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 26-18
Matthew Wright more than 7.5 kicking points (1.70x) – Sleeper Fantasy
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus