The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Chiefs vs. Falcons
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Chiefs vs. Falcons, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks that we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites, like Sleeper Fantasy, ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Chiefs vs. Falcons
I hope Week 3 is treating you well so far. I am writing this as the early games are ending, so it’s hard to tell where I stand on the main slate. Either way, I am officially turning my attention to the Sunday night Showdown slate. The Chiefs looked dominant in Week 1 against the Ravens and narrowly escaped with a win against the Bengals in Week 2. Everyone left Kirk Cousins and the Falcons for dead after failing to move the ball against the Steelers in Week 1, but they miraculously came back and beat the Eagles in Week 2. Tonight’s game could be full of fireworks. It features a 3-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Isiah Pacheco – Out
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Out
Hollywood Brown – Out
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Patrick Mahomes wasn’t a great fantasy quarterback last season (until the playoffs). We regularly noted his lack of upside. We’ve seen a similar pattern in the first two games of this season. He’s played well and has led his team to two wins, but he has only put up 16 and 15 fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 2. With that said, he’s faced two competent defenses in the Ravens and Bengals. The addition of field stretcher Xavier Worthy should certainly help Mahomes and this offense throughout the season. He’s a strong option tonight against the Falcons, who are 20th in EPA against the pass and 22nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season.
As always, let’s take a look at the early-season usage for Kansas City’s wideouts:
Rashee Rice: 74% route percentage, 28% target rate, 33% air yards share
Xavier Worthy: 68% route percentage, 13% target rate, 27% air yards share
Justin Watson: 47% route percentage, 6% target rate, 12% air yards share
Travis Kelce: 65% route percentage, 11% target rate, 22% air yards share
Noah Gray: 37% route percentage, 6% target rate, 10% air yards share
It was close to impossible trying to figure out whom Mahomes was throwing the ball to each week last season. However, we’ve seen a more condensed rotation at receiver and a much more condensed target tree this season. Rashee Rice boasts a 28% target share, a 33% air yards share, and a 35% first-read rate. He has lined up in the slot on 54% of the snaps, which gives him that high floor we like to see for a receiver. Playing from the slot will also help him avoid coverage from top cornerback A.J. Terrell. He’s one of the top targets on the slate and firmly in play at MVP and CPT.
Xavier Worthy has seen 7 targets and 2 rushing attempts this season. He’s turned those touches into 90 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns. He’s going to be volatile on a weekly basis, but there’s no denying his upside. The Falcons are better suited to cover outside receivers, but Worthy’s speed gives him the ability to beat any defense deep. Justin Watson has been on the field but only has a 6% target rate. The same goes for Noah Gray. Travis Kelce is one of the more intriguing tournament plays on the slate. Everyone is ready to call him washed, but he’s seen 22% of the team’s air yards.
Isiah Pacheco is set to miss some time, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is also out. Preseason favorite Carson Steele is expected to handle most of the early-down work, while Samaje Perine is expected to be the primary pass-down back. We know running backs have always had success in Andy Reid’s system, but the Chiefs could always opt to air it out more, especially in this matchup. It’s only been two games, but the Falcons have been better against the run than the pass. I don’t have a strong take on these two running backs, so I plan to be underweight on both for showdown.
The Chiefs D/ST is typically better at home than on the road, but we would have been licking our chops to play them a week ago (before that final drive from Kirk Cousins). Kicker Harrison Butker is one of my favorite value plays on the slate. He’s so reliable, the weather won’t be an issue indoors, and the Falcons have a decent defense.
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Atlanta Falcons Preview
It’s wild how much can change in the span of a few minutes in the NFL. The Falcons were about to drop to 0-2, but Saquon Barkley dropped a wide open pass that would have ended the game. Kirk Cousins then drove his team all the way down the field for a game-winning touchdown. All of a sudden, there is hope for Cousins as a quarterback and hope for the Falcons as a whole. The Chiefs have a good defense on paper but are 16th in EPA against the pass and 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. I will note that Cousins isn’t very mobile, which limits his appeal at MVP and CPT.
Let’s take a look at the usage of Atlanta’s wideouts in the first two games:
Drake London: 88% route percentage, 18% target rate, 21% air yards share
Darnell Mooney: 92% route percentage, 18% target rate, 38% air yards share
Ray-Ray McCloud: 75% route percentage, 22% target rate, 35% air yards share
Kyle Pitts: 75% route percentage, 13% target rate, 10% air yards share
As you can see, all three wide receivers for the Falcons have been extremely involved. Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud have all run a route on at least 75% of dropbacks, have all seen at least 18% of the team’s targets, and have all seen at least 21% of the team’s air yards. London and Mooney lead the way in actual fantasy points per game, while McCloud leads the way in terms of expected fantasy points per game. Given the fact that London is much more expensive than the other two receivers, I’ll probably have the least amount of exposure to him. Kyle Pitts has a low aDOT this season but isn’t getting many targets. The few Pitts truthers left will say that he’s still running routes. He does have that going for him.
Bijan Robinson has 41 touches through the first two games. He has turned those into 233 yards from scrimmage. The problem is that he has yet to score a touchdown. I’m not concerned in the slightest. The lack of touchdowns is a big reason why his expected fantasy points per game are so much higher than his actual fantasy points per game. The Chiefs were a run-funnel defense last season and are 29th in EPA against the run so far this season. Robinson is right there with Rice as one of my favorite plays on the slate. I’ll be using a lot of him at MVP and CPT. Tyler Allgeier is still in the mix but has only averaged 6 carries per game this season.
The Falcons have a decent secondary, but they are 25th in pressure rate this season and are facing a quarterback who rarely turns the ball over. I’ll take a chance with a fade. Kicker Younghoe Koo is viable and isn’t garnering much ownership.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
My strategy in the Monday night game with the Falcons was looking great until the very end of the game. I decided to be overweight on Bijan Robinson and then load up on plays from the other team. Most of my lineups will have Robinson and then one of the two cheaper Falcons wide receivers (Darnell Mooney or Ray-Ray McCloud). I like the idea of loading up on Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, and Harrison Butker from the Chiefs side.
Chiefs vs. Falcons DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 22.30 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 2.23 | $17,000 | 1.31 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 20.56 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.94 | $15,500 | 1.33 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 19.01 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.98 | $13,000 | 1.46 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | QB | 15.44 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.72 | $14,000 | 1.10 |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | 13.66 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.55 | $11,500 | 1.19 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 13.41 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.64 | $12,000 | 1.12 |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 13.24 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.66 | $9,500 | 1.39 |
| Carson Steele | KC | RB | 10.65 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.66 | $8,500 | 1.25 |
| Samaje Perine | KC | RB | 9.94 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.84 | $10,500 | 0.95 |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 9.70 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.56 | $9,500 | 1.02 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 9.66 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.38 | $10,000 | 0.97 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | ATL | WR | 8.92 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 2.48 | $7,500 | 1.19 |
| Younghoe Koo | ATL | K | 8.04 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.68 | $9,000 | 0.89 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 6.94 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.39 | $9,000 | 0.77 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 5.90 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.34 | $8,500 | 0.69 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 5.58 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.07 | $8,000 | 0.70 |
| Falcons | ATL | DST | 4.90 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.44 | $8,000 | 0.61 |
| Justin Watson | KC | WR | 4.78 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.71 | $7,000 | 0.68 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 4.75 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.83 | $7,000 | 0.68 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | ATL | WR | 1.97 | $200 | $300 | 9.85 | $6,000 | 0.33 |
| Jared Wiley | KC | TE | 1.61 | $400 | $600 | 4.03 | $5,000 | 0.32 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 1.41 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 0.64 | $6,000 | 0.24 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Ray-Ray McCloud: $3,600 DK / $7,500 FD
We know the Chiefs don’t get beat deep very often, but it’s hard to ignore the type of usage Ray-Ray McCloud has seen in the first two games. He has run a route on 75% of dropbacks, he has a 22% target share, and he has a 35% air yards share. As noted above, he leads the Falcons’ wideouts in expected fantasy points per game.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 6-2
Rashee Rice more than 6.5 receptions (1.76x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Until something changes, I will continue to play Rashee Rice in DFS and load up on him in Fantasy Pick’em contests. He’s caught 12-of-15 targets this season and continues to run the majority of his routes from the slot. I like to compare him to Cooper Kupp because he gets a great mix of short and deep targets every week. The fact that he’ll avoid A.J. Terrell for most of this game could lead to an even higher target share in this specific matchup.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data