The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Commanders vs. Eagles
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Commanders vs. Eagles, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Commanders vs. Eagles
This might be the game of the week, and we get it on a Thursday night. The Commanders have been one of the best stories in football this season. Thanks to their star rookie quarterback and an improved defense, they are 7-3 in the standings. They have a chance to take over first place in the NFC East with a win tonight over the Eagles. After a slow start to the season, the Eagles have won 5 games in a row and are looking to take a commanding lead in the division. Tonight’s game features a 4-point spread and a 49.5-point total.
Key Injuries
None
Washington Commanders Preview
Jayden Daniels has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the NFL for DFS and one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL in terms of completion percentage and EPA. I will note that he’s coming off two of his worst outings of the season and that the Eagles defense has been tremendous in recent weeks. Still, Daniels has one of the highest floor/ceiling combos of any player on the slate. His rushing upside makes him a viable option at MVP/CPT.
We are getting to the point of the season where recent trends matter more than season-long trends. Let’s look at Washington’s wideout usage over the last 4 games:
Terry McLaurin: 73% route percentage, 19% target rate, 35% air yards share
Noah Brown: 74% route percentage, 16% target rate, 25% air yards share
Zach Ertz: 68% route percentage, 19% target rate, 18% air yards share
Over the last 4 games, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, and Luke McCaffrey have all run a route between 26% and 38% of dropbacks. Brown and McCaffrey are priced under $2,000 on DraftKings and are worth a look if you want to punt a position. It’s hard to ignore the usage and production of Terry McLaurin. He’s had at least 98 yards and/or has scored a touchdown in each of the last 4 games. As long as Daniels can buy time in the pocket, McLaurin should be able to get open downfield.
Noah Brown hasn’t been far behind McLaurin in terms of usage over the last 4 games. During that stretch, he’s had a 16% target share and a 25% air yards share. He’s significantly cheaper and likely going to be lower-owned in tournaments. Zach Ertz doesn’t offer much in terms of yards after the catch, but he continues to get peppered with targets and quite a few of them are down the field. I will note that the Eagles have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Brian Robinson has missed the last 2 games with a hamstring injury, but he is not even on the injury report this week. With him back in the mix, we should see a healthy split between himself and Austin Ekeler. We might even see a little of Jeremy McNichols. This is a game where the Commanders might be trailing, and the Eagles are 7th in EPA against the run, so I’m not too interested in these running backs. Ekeler makes the most sense, as he could see a lot of the passing-down work.
The Commanders defense has been solid over the last few games, but their season-long metrics are still subpar. They don’t get a lot of pressure on the quarterback, and the Eagles have done a nice job of taking care of the ball. Kicker Zane Gonzalez made his first start with the Commanders last week and made both of his field goal attempts.
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Philadelphia Eagles Preview
The Eagles have won 5 games in a row and appear to be a real threat to come out of the NFC. Jalen Hurts has been a cheat code in DFS for years. He has elite weapons to throw the ball to, he offers plenty of rushing upside, and he has the tush-push anytime the Eagles get inside the 2-yard line. He has topped 21 fantasy points in each of the last 5 games and has topped 29 fantasy points in each of the last 3 games. The Commanders have been better defensively in recent weeks but are still 24th in EPA against the pass with a low pressure rate. Hurts is firmly in play at the MVP/CPT spots.
Let’s take a look at the usage in games where A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were both active:
A.J. Brown: 85% route percentage, 29% target rate, 48% air yards share
DeVonta Smith: 91% route percentage, 21% target rate, 25% air yards share
Jahan Dotson: 59% route percentage, 5% target rate, 11% air yards share
Dallas Goedert: 52% route percentage, 11% target rate, 8% air yards share
Brown is capable of breaking any NFL DFS slate. He’s topped 100 receiving yards in 3 of his 6 games this season and has some positive touchdown regression coming his way, as he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 7. Smith continues to man the slot but that hasn’t led to a high floor like you might expect. In fact, his production has been very volatile in the games he has played alongside Brown. Both are viable against the Commanders, who are 24th in EPA against the pass and 20th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Dallas Goedert has been nursing injuries most of the season but should be a full-go against the Commanders, who are mediocre at defending the tight end position. He’s expensive enough that I don’t expect him to garner much ownership. The Eagles run a lot of two tight end sets, so I don’t mind punting with Grant Calcaterra on DraftKings ($1,000). I prefer him over Jahan Dotson at $4,000. He’s on the field quite a bit but rarely gets targeted.
Saquon Barkley has been one of the most talented running backs in the NFL for many years. It turns out that when you put him in a good offense behind a good offensive line, he’s going to be dominant. He is averaging a ridiculous 5.8 yards per carry this season and has already scored 8 touchdowns. The crazy part is that Hurts has stolen a ton of goal-line work from him, so he could realistically be averaging over 25 fantasy points per game. Barkley is a great option against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
The Eagles have given up a total of 43 points in their last 4 games and can get plenty of pressure on the quarterback. Jayden Daniels has looked awesome this season, but I’ll take a few shots on the Eagles defense. Kicker Jake Elliott is firmly in play as well.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I don’t MME Showdown slates. I typically like to build anywhere between 1-3 lineups. The first rule that I will be making in LineupHQ is to include both of the quarterbacks. I have a hard time seeing these two not end up on the optimal, especially given their rushing upside. And in this group, I want to make sure to include the CPT/MVP spots, as they are two of my favorite plays at the multiplier positions.
Commanders vs. Eagles DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 22.69 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 2.06 | $15,000 | 1.51 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | 20.37 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.96 | $14,500 | 1.40 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 18.89 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.89 | $13,000 | 1.45 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 18.74 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.77 | $15,500 | 1.21 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 14.11 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.57 | $12,500 | 1.13 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 13.68 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.59 | $11,500 | 1.19 |
| Brian Robinson | WAS | RB | 11.23 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.37 | $11,000 | 1.02 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 9.35 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.42 | $9,500 | 0.98 |
| Austin Ekeler | WAS | RB | 9.34 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.17 | $10,000 | 0.93 |
| Noah Brown | WAS | WR | 9.34 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.51 | $9,500 | 0.98 |
| Zach Ertz | WAS | TE | 9.22 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.65 | $8,000 | 1.15 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | K | 7.92 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.52 | $9,000 | 0.88 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 6.84 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.55 | $9,000 | 0.76 |
| Commanders | WAS | DST | 4.97 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.38 | $8,500 | 0.58 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS | WR | 4.24 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.41 | $7,500 | 0.57 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | RB | 3.64 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.14 | $6,500 | 0.56 |
| Luke McCaffrey | WAS | WR | 3.39 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.83 | $6,000 | 0.57 |
| Dyami Brown | WAS | WR | 2.50 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.56 | $7,000 | 0.36 |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | WR | 2.07 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 0.52 | $7,500 | 0.28 |
| Grant Calcaterra | PHI | TE | 1.52 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.52 | $6,000 | 0.25 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Zach Ertz: $5,600 DK / $8,000 FD
I know this is a difficult matchup on paper, but the Eagles haven’t faced many good tight ends (or many good offenses in general). Ertz continues to have solid usage in this offense and this is a game where the Commanders might be trailing. He doesn’t offer much in terms of yards after the catch, but he could see 6-8 targets and is always a good red-zone option for Jayden Daniels.
Commanders vs. Eagles Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 22-13
Jake Elliott more than 1.5 field goals made (1.69x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We picked up another win on Monday night to bring the season record to 22-13. We are back at it tonight with a kicker projection. I like to take kickers when they play for a good offense, when the weather looks decent, and when their team is favored. All three of those boxes are checked for Jake Elliott. He has made at least 2 field goals in 5 of 9 games so far this season.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus