The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Giants vs. Seahawks
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Giants vs. Seahawks, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Giants vs. Seahawks
I hope everyone had a great Sunday and is ready to get back at it this evening. The Giants and Seahawks are two teams that made the playoffs last year and are hoping to do the same in 2023. The Giants are looking to get back to .500 after a shaky start, and the Seahawks are looking to improve to 3-1. Tonight’s game features a 2-point spread and a 47-point total.
Key Injuries
Saquon Barkley – Doubtful
Noah Fant – Questionable
Will Dissly – Questionable
New York Giants Preview
The Giants have essentially looked good for two, maybe three, quarters this season. They were blown out by the Cowboys, they were shut out in the first half by the Cardinals, and they didn’t put up much of a fight against the Niners. The good news is that they’ve had 10 days to prepare for this game and that they have a chance to get back to .500 with a win tonight at home.
A matchup against the Seahawks should lead us to heavy exposure to the Giants’ passing game. On the season, Seattle is ranked in the top 10 in rush DVOA and rush EPA, while ranking in the bottom six in pass DVOA and pass EPA. This is what we call a pass-funnel matchup and one that sets up well for Daniel Jones. With his rushing upside and his favorable matchup through the air, Jones is one of the top targets overall and deserves consideration at MVP and Captain.
We saw New York’s receiving corps breakout toward the end of last season, but they haven’t been able to sustain that at the start of this season. Some of that blame can be placed on Jones, but this could be a tough group to predict all season. Through the first three games, here is how the target share has been split — Darren Waller (20%), Parris Campbell (16%), Darius Slayton (16%), Isaiah Hodgins (9%), Wan’Dale Robinson (5%), and the running backs (20%).
Based on salaries, target share, and overall talent level, Waller is the preferred wideout to target in this offense. He leads the team in targets and is second to only Slayton in air yards share. The rest of the receivers are a bit tougher to predict, but the matchup is certainly an enticing one, as the Seahawks have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to receivers. Campbell is more of the safe, underneath target, while Slayton is more of the deep threat. We could see a bigger role for Robinson after making his season debut last week against the Niners (caught 4-of-5 targets for 21 yards).
Saquon Barkley missed last week’s game and is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. For our purposes, let’s assume that he’s going to sit out once again. In his absence against the Niners, Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell split running back duties. They only combined for eight rush attempts and 22 yards, but it was a bad game script and a tough matchup. They each had three targets in that game, which is encouraging. This is a slightly easier matchup and their salaries are more than playable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Defenses can always get there with a fluke play, but I’m not sure the Giants should be a focal point of lineups tonight. They have the eighth lowest pressure rate this season, while the Seahawks have allowed the sixth fewest sacks per game. Kicker Graham Gano is certainly on my radar, as he could easily outscore some of these receivers.
Seattle Seahawks Preview
The Seahawks lost their opener against the Rams, but bounced back with wins against the Lions and Panthers. They’ll look to pick up a big win on the road against the Giants this evening. This has been one of the most exploitable matchups so far this season, as the Giants have been in the bottom eight in pass DVOA, pass EPA, rush DVOA, and rush EPA. The Seahawks should be able to have success on the ground or through the air, so their game plan will likely hinge on how the game plays out.
Geno Smith is the king of quotes and the king of Seattle. After struggling against the Rams in Week 1, he has bounced back with 24 and 16 fantasy points the last two weeks. The Giants haven’t been able to get much pressure on the quarterback this season, and Smith should be able to pick apart this secondary. He also provides a higher-than-zero rushing floor, which is always a positive for a quarterback. Much like Jones, Smith is a viable option in all formats and deserves consideration at MVP and Captain.
Here’s how the target share has been divided for the Seahawks in the first three games — Tyler Lockett (20%), DK Metcalf (18%), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (14%), Noah Fant (10%), Colby Parkinson (10%), Will Dissly (5%), and the running backs (16%). While the Seahawks don’t have as much of a rotation at wide receiver as the Giants, this is still a tough group to predict on a weekly basis. Metcalf and Lockett continue to dominate the targets and air yards, but they rarely have big outings in the same game.
If you are double-stacking with Geno, you might be better off playing one of the two stud receivers and then taking a chance on Smith-Njigba or one of the tight ends. Speaking of, we need to keep an eye on Fant and Dissly leading up to lock, as they are both listed as questionable.
Kenneth Walker has played well this season and has already caught eight passes, so he’s been used both on the ground and through the air. For the time being, he seems to have a firm grasp on the RB1 role in this offense. Zach Charbonnet is a talented rookie that should eventually cut into Walker’s role and DeeJay Dallas is more of a third-and-long type of specialist. The Giants have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to running backs, so it’s a good spot for both Walker and Charbonnet.
The Seahawks don’t exactly have an elite pass rush, but it’s around league average and they are facing a quarterback that gets sacked up at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Jones did a great job of keeping care of the ball last season, but he’s already thrown four interceptions this season. Both kickers are viable tonight, as these teams should be able to move the ball on these defenses.
Roster Construction Ideas
The Chiefs onslaught worked well last night, but I don’t see a real path to this game being completely one-sided unless some fluke plays happen early. As defenses continue to crush on these primetime slates, their ownership continues to rise. This is a game where I don’t mind fading both defenses completely. The Seahawks could certainly get some pressure on Daniel Jones, but they aren’t the most lethal defense around and the Giants have had 10 days to prepare for this game.
On the Giants side, I am all about stacking Jones with at least two of his wideouts. They are expected to be without Saquon Barkley, they couldn’t get anything going on the ground last week, and they are facing a pass-funnel defense. On the Seahawks side, you can target the running game or the passing game with confidence. Personally, I like the idea of splitting up Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf in builds, so I like building a player group in LineupHQ with those two and using a max of one.
Giants-Seahawks DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | NYG | QB | 21.15 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 2.20 | $15,500 | 1.36 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 18.67 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.87 | $15,000 | 1.24 |
| D.K. Metcalf | SEA | WR | 15.01 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.71 | $13,000 | 1.15 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 14.80 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.85 | $12,500 | 1.18 |
| Matt Breida | NYG | RB | 12.76 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.99 | $11,000 | 1.16 |
| Kenneth Walker | SEA | RB | 12.56 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.16 | $16,000 | 0.79 |
| Darren Waller | NYG | TE | 12.09 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.73 | $11,500 | 1.05 |
| Graham Gano | NYG | K | 9.46 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 2.25 | $8,500 | 1.11 |
| Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 9.24 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.78 | $8,500 | 1.09 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 8.57 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.71 | $7,500 | 1.14 |
| Jason Myers | SEA | K | 8.49 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.85 | $9,500 | 0.89 |
| Seahawks | SEA | DST | 6.49 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.48 | $9,000 | 0.72 |
| Parris Campbell | NYG | WR | 6.42 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.29 | $8,000 | 0.80 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | 6.26 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.84 | $7,500 | 0.83 |
| Gary Brightwell | NYG | RB | 6.25 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.30 | $8,000 | 0.78 |
| Giants | NYG | DST | 6.23 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.56 | $9,000 | 0.69 |
| Noah Fant | SEA | TE | 4.81 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.34 | $7,000 | 0.69 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 4.79 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.60 | $6,500 | 0.74 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | NYG | WR | 4.68 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 0.81 | $10,000 | 0.47 |
| Colby Parkinson | SEA | TE | 4.10 | $800 | $1,200 | 5.13 | $6,000 | 0.68 |
| Jalin Hyatt | NYG | WR | 3.51 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.76 | $7,000 | 0.50 |
| Will Dissly | SEA | TE | 2.36 | $400 | $600 | 5.90 | $6,000 | 0.39 |
| Daniel Bellinger | NYG | TE | 2.05 | $200 | $300 | 10.25 | $5,500 | 0.37 |
| Jake Bobo | SEA | WR | 2.01 | $200 | $300 | 10.05 | $5,000 | 0.40 |
| DeeJay Dallas | SEA | RB | 1.89 | $200 | $300 | 9.45 | $5,500 | 0.34 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Colby Parkinson – $800 DK / $6,000 FD
The Seahawks annoyingly use three tight ends, but Colby Parkinson has still managed to secure 10% of the team’s targets through the first three games. He’s essentially free on DraftKings and his $6,000 price point on FanDuel will keep ownership down. The Giants haven’t been particularly tough on tight ends (19th) this season and there’s a chance Parkinson is a lot more involved tonight with Noah Fant and Will Dissly nursing injuries.
Giants vs. Seahawks Player Props
Darren Waller over 46.5 receiving yards (1.76x) – Sleeper
This is easily my favorite prop in this game. Waller hasn’t exactly made a huge impact thus far, but he has a 20% target share and a 26% air yards share. There are only a few tight ends in the league that are the number one option for their quarterback and Waller is one of them. More importantly, he’s facing a Seahawks defense that consistently gets beat in the middle of the field. Seattle allowed more yards to tight ends than any team in the league in 2022 (1,177 yards).