The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Niners vs. Giants
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Patriots vs. Dolphins, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Niners vs. Giants
Welcome back, my friends.
The primetime games so far this season have been… interesting to say the least. We’ve seen a good game here or there, but there have been some real clunkers mixed in as well. Only time will tell if this game ends up being a good one. The Niners are listed as 10-point favorites at home against the Giants. The total for the game is set at 44 points.
San Francisco 49ers Preview
The Niners have looked dominant in their first two games. They made quick work of the Steelers in Pittsburgh and then picked up a win against the Rams in Los Angeles. With Mike Shanahan’s offense firing on all cylinders and this defense playing at a high level, the Niners are once again Super Bowl contenders. Tonight they have their home opener against the Giants, who are currently bottom six in EPA against the run and the pass (and one of those games was against Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals).
Given the matchup, the talent disparity, and the large spread, the Niners can attack this defense any way that they want. Brock Purdy is labeled as a game manager, but he’s a perfect fit for this offense. He’s accurate and he’s not going to make very many mistakes. As long as he gets the ball into the hands of his playmakers, he’s going to be a very productive quarterback for fantasy purposes. He projects quite well and is significantly cheaper than both Christian McCaffrey and Daniel Jones.
The big injury to monitor for the Niners is Brandon Aiyuk. He is currently listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. Given the short week and the inferior opponent, we shouldn’t be surprised if the Niners decide to hold him out. If that’s the case, 26% of the target share and 42% of the air yards share will get picked up by a combination of his teammates. Deebo Samuel is one of my personal favorites on the slate, as the underlying usage has been elite through the first two games. He’s ran a route on 95% of drop-backs and has seen a 30% target share. He’s going to break off one or two of those long touchdowns sooner rather than later.
If Aiyuk is ruled out, Jauan Jennings would step in as the WR2 with Ronnie Bell and Ray-Ray McCloud picking up some snaps as well. Jennings would become viable on both sites, while Bell and McCloud would be more DraftKings-specific targets. Aiyuk’s absence would likely lead to an increase in 12-personnel as well, which could mean more snaps for Ross Dwelley. If you like a super long shot touchdown prop, perhaps Dwelley is worth a sprinkle. If Aiyuk ends up being active, we have to assume he’s close to full strength. I see no reason for him to play in this spot if he’s not close to 100%. George Kittle has slate-breaking upside every week and makes for a strong tournament play.
Christian McCaffrey played every single snap in Week 2. Every. Single. Snap. We haven’t seen this type of usage since his days in Carolina. Now, Shanahan did say after the game that he needs to get Elijah Mitchell more touches and this feels like the perfect game to do it. That said, McCaffrey has the highest projection of any player on the slate and has now scored a touchdown in 12 straight games dating back to last season. He deserves consideration as your Captain (DK) and MVP (FD). As for Mitchell, I like him as an accompanying piece to McCaffrey in tournaments. There’s a scenario where the Niners run away with this game and both running backs have big fantasy outings.
Time and time again, we’ve seen defenses break the slate in primetime games. The Niners defense is firmly in play as large home favorites. I will also have some shares of Jake Moody (kicker), as the Niners should be able to move the ball at will in this one.
New York Giants Preview
The Giants are somehow 1-1 on the season despite getting outscored 60 to 0 in their first six quarters of the season. They deserve credit for the comeback win against the Cardinals, but at the same time, it was a comeback win against the Cardinals. They now have a second straight game out West with very little rest and a much more intimidating opponent. Daniel Jones is viable here, as he’s one of the better rushing quarterbacks in the league. Through the first two weeks, he has 22 rushing attempts for 102 yards. The best case scenario here might be the Niners getting up big and going into more of a shell defense that Jones can perform well against in the second half.
Wan’Dale Robinson has a chance to suit up for this game, so keep an eye on the inactives 90 minutes before kickoff. The problem with the Giants is that they have far too many wide receivers getting snaps and far too little production from the group as a whole. Adding Robinson into the mix (especially coming off a torn ACL) only muddies the water. We currently don’t have Robinson in the projections and we still have four Giants receivers projected between 4.1 and 8.9 fantasy points. One of the four (or five if Robinson is active) will likely have a decent outing, but good luck trying to predict the right receiver. If forced to choose, I would side with Parris Campbell. He runs a lot of routes underneath and has a 70% route participation rate this season.
The Giants have done us a favor by ruling out Saquon Barkley on Wednesday. Rather than having to wait for inactives, we already know that he’s going to miss this game with his ankle injury. Matt Breida will draw the start, while Gary Brightwell and Eric Gray should get some snaps as well. The best part about this is that the sites knew that Barkley was injured and priced Breida accordingly. He’s far from a free square at $7,000 on DraftKings and $10,500 on FanDuel. That said, he’s been a good pass-catcher throughout his career and the Giants are expected to be trailing in this game. Darren Waller is the easiest wideout to pair with Jones. He leads the team in targets (13), but it’s worth noting that the Niners have historically been very tough on tight ends.
Unlike the Niners, I don’t have much interest in the Giants defense or in their kicker.
Niners-Giants DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 21.28 | $13,200 | $19,800 | 1.61 | $18,000 | 1.18 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 17.99 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.91 | $14,500 | 1.24 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 17.09 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.94 | $13,500 | 1.27 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | QB | 16.95 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.66 | $16,000 | 1.06 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 13.50 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.57 | $12,000 | 1.13 |
| Darren Waller | NYG | TE | 11.18 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.51 | $11,500 | 0.97 |
| Matt Breida | NYG | RB | 11.09 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.58 | $11,000 | 1.01 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 9.54 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.45 | $9,000 | 1.06 |
| Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 8.85 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.58 | $8,500 | 1.04 |
| Jake Moody | SF | K | 8.34 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.99 | $9,500 | 0.88 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 8.28 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.43 | $10,000 | 0.83 |
| Graham Gano | NYG | K | 6.99 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.75 | $8,000 | 0.87 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | NYG | WR | 6.79 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.06 | $10,500 | 0.65 |
| Parris Campbell | NYG | WR | 6.59 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.50 | $8,000 | 0.82 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 6.05 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.26 | $7,000 | 0.86 |
| Giants | NYG | DST | 5.87 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.83 | $7,500 | 0.78 |
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | 5.09 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.12 | $6,500 | 0.78 |
| Gary Brightwell | NYG | RB | 4.72 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 0.94 | $7,500 | 0.63 |
| Jalin Hyatt | NYG | WR | 4.10 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 0.79 | $7,000 | 0.59 |
| Daniel Bellinger | NYG | TE | 3.18 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.98 | $5,500 | 0.58 |
| Eric Gray | NYG | RB | 2.38 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.70 | $6,000 | 0.40 |
| Ross Dwelley | SF | TE | 0.90 | $200 | $300 | 4.50 | $5,500 | 0.16 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Niners D/ST – $5,800 DK / $8,700 FD
You would think a talented defense facing Jones would be popular, but the high price tag is going to keep the Niners defense at reasonable ownership. You really can’t ask for a better spot for a defense — at home, large favorites, facing a quarterback that takes sacks, and facing an offense that is without their best player.
Niners vs. Giants Player Props
Deebo Samuel over 53.5 receiving yards (1.79x) – Sleeper
As noted earlier, Samuel is primed for a breakout performance. He has ran a route on 95% of Purdy’s drop-backs and he’s getting peppered with targets (30%). He’s one of the few players in the NFL that has the ability to break long plays and I love that they are using him more as a receiver than as a combo player this season. He has averaged 59.5 receiving yards in the first two games and it feels like he’s left some yards out there. This is easily my favorite prop of the game.
Final DFS Showdown Thoughts
The common build in this slate is going to be the Niners onslaught and I can’t say I blame the field. If building a single lineup, I prefer using four or five players from San Francisco.