The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - 49ers vs. Seahawks
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the 49ers vs. Seahawks, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. As always, you should be checking the NFL weather page each week to see if any games are going to be impacted by wind or rain.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Niners vs. Seahawks
We’ve had several good Thursday Night Football games this season and can expect another one in Week 6. The few people still alive in Survivor Leagues were likely knocked out by the Niners or Seahawks last week. Both teams were touchdown-sized favorites at home and both ended up losing. The Seahawks are now 2-3 and the Niners are now 3-2. Luckily for both teams, the Cardinals and Rams have struggled as well. The NFC West is still up for grabs. This game features a 3.5-point spread and a 49.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Christian McCaffrey – Out
Jake Moody – Out
Chris Conley – Questionable (limited practice)
San Francisco 49ers Preview
It’s wild to think Brock Purdy was the overwhelming favorite to win the MVP after Week 15 last season. He hasn’t been nearly as sharp since that Week 16 game against the Ravens. He’s already thrown 4 interceptions and has lost 2 fumbles this season. From a fantasy perspective, he’s still been serviceable. He has averaged 17 fantasy points per game this season and has rushed for 85 yards in the last 3 games combined. The Seahawks have had a decent pass defense this season, but Purdy still has the highest median projection of any player on the slate.
Deebo Samuel and George Kittle were both out in Week 3. Let’s take a look at the usage for San Francisco’s wideouts in Weeks 1, 2, 4, and 5:
Deebo Samuel: 83% route percentage, 21% target rate, 21% air yards share
Brandon Aiyuk: 87% route percentage, 21% target rate, 26% air yards share
Jauan Jennings: 61% route percentage, 14% target rate, 21% air yards share
George Kittle: 78% route percentage, 23% target rate, 16% air yards share
We rarely see 4 different wideouts on the same team have such high target shares. Purdy hasn’t thrown the ball much to running backs this season and has done a great job of spreading the ball around to his play makers. The usage for Deebo Samuel hasn’t been great since missing Week 3 with a calf injury. He’s caught 4 of 8 targets and only has 92 yards from scrimmage in the last 2 games. After a slow start to the season, Brandon Aiyuk caught 8 of 12 targets for 147 yards. It’s only a matter of time before Aiyuk gets his first touchdown of the season.
Jauan Jennings had the huge breakout game in Week 3 but has been quiet in the other 4 games. The good news for Jennings is that he’s still seen decent usage and that he’s affordable on both DraftKings ($4,000) and FanDuel ($9,000). My favorite pass catcher on the Niners is George Kittle. He actually leads the team in target share and is facing a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 8th-most receptions and 5th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Chris Conley ($200) and Kyle Juszczyk ($1,400) are cheap enough on DraftKings that they can be included in your tournament player pool.
It was a strange game for Jordan Mason last week against the Cardinals. He averaged a season-high 6.4 yards per carry but saw a season-low 15 touches. The Niners were about to close the door in that game, but Mason fumbled in the red zone. I still don’t view Isaac Guerendo as a real threat to Mason’s workload. This week’s matchup is slightly on the difficult side, as the Seahawks are 7th in PFF’s grades against the run and 10th in EPA against the run.
In general, we want defenses that are facing teams we expect to throw the ball a lot. Turnovers are more likely and we get more opportunities for sacks. The Seahawks have the highest pass rate above expectation in the NFL this season, while the Niners have a good pass rush. I’ll have some exposure to their defense. Kicker Jake Moody has been ruled out, so Matthew Wright will be the kicker for San Francisco on Thursday night.
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Seattle Seahawks Preview
Geno Smith has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game this season and has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns. He has only averaged 1 touchdown per 38 attempts, which is an extremely low mark. We can expect some positive touchdown regression from him moving forward. As noted earlier, the Seahawks are 1st in the NFL in pass rate above expectation. The Niners have a good pass rush but are only 13th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Smith is a strong option at UTIL and MVP/CPT.
Let’s take a look at the usage for Seattle’s wideouts this season:
DK Metcalf: 86% route percentage, 21% target rate, 40% air yards share
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 85% route percentage, 20% target rate, 24% air yards share
Tyler Lockett: 75% route percentage, 15% target rate, 23% air yards share
Noah Fant: 62% route percentage, 9% target rate, 9% air yards share
DK Metcalf is a potential slate breaker every time he takes the field. He has 40% of his team’s air yards and has topped 100 receiving yards in 3 of the last 4 games. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 9.5 targets over his last 4 games and has left some production on the field (his expected fantasy points per game is 2.5 points higher than his actual output). I prefer both Metcalf and JSN over Tyler Lockett, who only has a 15% target share this season. I will note that Lockett is sitting at an enticing $5,400 on DraftKings. The Niners have always been tough on tight ends, and Noah Fant only has a 9% target share and a 9% air yards share this season.
Kenneth Walker has never been known as a great pass catcher out of the backfield, but he has already racked up 13 receptions this season. It’s hard to believe he only had 5 carries in a home matchup against the Giants last week, but that shows how much the Seahawks want to throw the ball. The Niners have been more susceptible on the ground this season, ranking 25th in PFF’s grades against the run and 20th in EPA against the run. Zach Charbonnet should continue to see around a third of the snaps and potentially more if the Seahawks fall behind early in this one.
The Seahawks have a decent defense and are playing at home, but they will be missing Byron Murphy and Uchenna Nwosu. They could also be without Tariq Woolen and Derick Hall. If playing a defense on this Showdown slate, I’ll side with the Niners. Kicker Jason Myers is viable, but several position players feel underpriced on this slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This slate feels more wide open than most. You can make a case for Brock Purdy and the Niners’ passing game and/or Jordan Mason. You can also make a case for Geno Smith and the Seahawks’ passing game and/or Kenneth Walker. I generally like to include a kicker or defense on most builds, but I plan to focus my attention on the position players on this slate. I don’t plan to build onslaught stacks for either team.
Niners vs. Seahawks DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 20.44 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 2.17 | $13,000 | 1.57 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 19.31 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 2.10 | $14,500 | 1.33 |
| Jordan Mason | SF | RB | 18.35 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.80 | $15,500 | 1.18 |
| Kenneth Walker | SEA | RB | 17.98 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.83 | $14,000 | 1.28 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 16.00 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.90 | $11,000 | 1.45 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 15.77 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.79 | $12,500 | 1.26 |
| D.K. Metcalf | SEA | WR | 15.47 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.72 | $12,000 | 1.29 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 12.76 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.72 | $10,500 | 1.22 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 11.93 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.70 | $10,000 | 1.19 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 11.61 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 2.15 | $9,500 | 1.22 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 9.24 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 2.31 | $9,000 | 1.03 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | 9.21 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 2.71 | $8,500 | 1.08 |
| Matthew Wright | SF | K | 7.09 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.54 | ||
| Jason Myers | SEA | K | 6.84 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.37 | $8,500 | 0.80 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 6.72 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.60 | $8,000 | 0.84 |
| Seahawks | SEA | DST | 5.11 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.34 | $8,000 | 0.64 |
| Noah Fant | SEA | TE | 5.09 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.70 | $7,500 | 0.68 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 4.11 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 2.94 | $7,000 | 0.59 |
| Isaac Guerendo | SF | RB | 2.77 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.39 | $7,500 | 0.37 |
| Chris Conley | SF | WR | 2.03 | $200 | $300 | 10.15 | $5,000 | 0.41 |
| Pharaoh Brown | SEA | TE | 1.47 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 0.82 | $5,000 | 0.29 |
| Jake Bobo | SEA | WR | 1.47 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.47 | $6,500 | 0.23 |
| Eric Saubert | SF | TE | 1.36 | $600 | $900 | 2.27 | $6,500 | 0.21 |
| AJ Barner | SEA | TE | 1.36 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.85 | $7,000 | 0.19 |
Fantasy Sleepers
George Kittle: $7,400 DK / $10,500 FD
George Kittle has caught a touchdown in 3 straight games, yet he’s not projecting for much ownership. As noted earlier, the Seahawks have struggled against the tight end position, allowing the 8th-most receptions and the 5th-most receiving yards. Kittle has been removed from the injury report.
Niners vs. Seahawks Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 14-4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba more than 4.5 receptions (1.59x) – Sleeper Fantasy
While I do like George Kittle to get more than 48.5 receiving yards, let’s roll with Jaxon Smith-Njigba to record more than 4.5 receptions. We know the Seahawks want to throw the ball, and this is a game where the Seahawks are home underdogs. Geno Smith has thrown at least 40 passes in 3 of his last 4 games and could exceed that mark.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus