The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Patriots vs. Colts
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Patriots vs. Colts, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Morning Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Patriots vs. Colts
We endured another, let’s call it interesting, Thursday Night Football game and now turn our attention to Sunday. I wasn’t a huge fan of the overseas game when it first started, but I have grown to love it over the years. With DFS, betting, and props, it’s great to wake up to an immediate sweat while building lineups for the main slate.
We have another game in Germany this week; this one between the Patriots and Colts. These teams appear to be trending in opposite directions, although they both have a losing record on the season. This should be a competitive game, as it features a 2-point spread and a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Demario Douglas – Questionable
DeVante Parker – Out
Kendrick Bourne – Out
Josh Downs – Questionable
Alec Pierce – Questionable
New England Patriots Preview
The Patriots have lost back-to-back games and would need a small miracle to make the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out, especially since the Patriots have sustained a bunch of injuries on both sides of the ball. Mac Jones gave New England fans false hope after a big game in the opener against the Eagles. Ever since, he has been nothing short of awful. In fact, he has only topped 15 fantasy points two times all season. The only real positive that I see here is that he should have plenty of time in the pocket. The Colts are 23rd in pressure rate, while the Patriots have quietly had a top-10 pass-blocking unit this season.
With Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker out last week, here’s how the targets were dispersed between the wideouts: Demario Douglas (7), JuJu Smith-Schuster (7), Hunter Henry (6), Jalen Reagor (6), Tyquan Thornton (4), Mike Gesicki (2), and the running backs (11). We’ll have to keep an eye on the availability of Douglas, who has been limited in practice. He’s certainly the most talented receiver of the group and has now seen 20 targets over the last three games. The Colts give up a lot of receptions underneath, so the matchup sets up well for him once again.
The Colts’ best cornerback is their slot corner, which helps explain the rare bad outing by Adam Thielen last week. I’m far from a Smith-Schuster truther at this stage of his career, and he should draw the toughest matchup of the wideouts. I’ll let others chase his 6-reception, 51-yard game from last week. On a per-dollar basis, I much prefer Reagor or Thornton. The Colts have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, which means we could see a healthy dose of Henry and Gesicki. Henry is the safer option of the two, but he’s considerably more expensive.
Rhamondre Stevenson is coming off of his best fantasy outing of the season, but 12 of his 22 fantasy points came on a single play. He broke free for a 64-yard touchdown against the Commanders. He’s been stuck in a timeshare with Ezekiel Elliott all season, and we shouldn’t expect that to change anytime soon. A matchup against the Colts is fairly enticing, as they are ranked 23rd in DVOA against the run and 28th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. I view Stevenson as more of a FanDuel play and Elliott as more of a DraftKings play.
We saw yet another D/ST touchdown on Thursday night, so I wouldn’t rule out the Patriots D/ST in this one. With that said, they have the 5th-fewest sacks per game this season, and I’m expecting the Colts to lean on their running game in this one. Kicker Chad Ryland is is only 10-for-14 on the season and only has two games with more than one made field goal. He’s my second favorite kicking option in this game, which usually isn’t a great sign.
Indianapolis Colts Preview
The Colts snapped their 3-game losing streak with a win over the Panthers last week and can get back to .500 with a win this week. They are certainly live to win the AFC South, even though they are playing with a backup quarterback. We’ve seen mixed results from Gardner Minshew this season. He is not afraid to take chances, but that has led to a number of costly turnovers. This week he squares off against a Patriots defense that doesn’t get pressure on the quarterback and is ranked 28th in dropback EPA this season. I’m not looking to roster Minshew at MVP or CPT, but I do like him as a flex/utility play.
Josh Downs is currently listed as questionable, but he did not practice on Thursday. We currently took him out of projections, but we should still monitor his status leading up to lineup lock. He’s been one of Minshew’s favorite targets all season. If Downs does sit, Michael Pittman will be the clear WR1 against a secondary that lacks speed and talent. Pittman already boasts a 26% target share and a 30% air yards share, and we can expect those numbers to go up if Downs is out. He deserves consideration at MVP and CPT.
Alec Pierce would step in as the WR2 if Downs is out, but he’s also listed as questionable. The other receivers on the roster are Isaiah McKenzie and Juwann Winfree. Ultimately, we are going to have to take a wait-and-see approach with everyone in this wide receiver room that’s not named Pittman. The Colts don’t throw to their tight ends very often, and the Patriots have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to the position. Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox are cheap enough on DraftKings to fill out lineups with, but they are far from priorities.
I have started a petition to the NFL to allow Jonathan Taylor to score fantasy points in the 2nd half of games. I’ve done my part, so we’ll see what happens. He seems to get off to a great start every week and then disappears in the 2nd half. I don’t mind a good magic trick every now and then, but not when it involves fantasy production. Kidding aside, his playing time and touch totals continue to grow week in and week out. The Patriots have been good against the run but have allowed 7 rushing touchdowns and 50 receptions to running backs this season. Zack Moss will still be involved, but he’s priced too close to Taylor for my liking.
The Colts don’t get a lot of pressure on the quarterback, but Jones has thrown at least 1 interception in seven of nine games this season. I don’t mind pairing Taylor with the Colts D/ST. If any team is going to run away with this game, I think it’s the Colts. Of the two kickers, I much prefer Matt Gay over Ryland.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
We’ll have to wait and see if Downs and Pierce are able to suit up, but we could see a very concentrated offense from the Colts. I am planning to get as much exposure to Minshew, Taylor, and Pittman as possible. This is going to take up the majority of the salary cap, but there are some nice values on the Patriots given how short-handed they are when it comes to their wideouts. I’ll also be mixing in the Colts D/ST and their kicker. I know this game has a close spread, but I only see one path to a blowout, and that’s with the Colts building a lead and forcing Jones into some turnovers.
Patriots-Colts DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 20.84 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 2.04 | $13,500 | 1.54 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 17.44 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 1.53 | $16,500 | 1.06 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | QB | 16.27 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.63 | $15,000 | 1.08 |
| Mac Jones | NE | QB | 14.99 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.63 | $14,000 | 1.07 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 14.05 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.35 | $12,500 | 1.12 |
| Demario Douglas | NE | WR | 11.04 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.42 | $10,000 | 1.10 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | NE | RB | 9.02 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 2.82 | $8,000 | 1.13 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 8.81 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.52 | $9,000 | 0.98 |
| Matt Gay | IND | K | 8.80 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.76 | $9,500 | 0.93 |
| Alec Pierce | IND | WR | 8.31 | $800 | $1,200 | 10.39 | $8,000 | 1.04 |
| Chad Ryland | NE | K | 8.26 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.80 | $8,500 | 0.97 |
| Colts | IND | DST | 7.24 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.34 | $9,000 | 0.80 |
| Zack Moss | IND | RB | 6.72 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 0.76 | $12,000 | 0.56 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | NE | WR | 6.12 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.61 | $7,500 | 0.82 |
| Patriots | NE | DST | 6.02 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.51 | $8,500 | 0.71 |
| Kylen Granson | IND | TE | 5.35 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 2.23 | $7,500 | 0.71 |
| DeVante Parker | NE | WR | 4.70 | $200 | $300 | 23.50 | $7,000 | 0.67 |
| Jalen Reagor | NE | WR | 4.57 | $400 | $600 | 11.43 | $5,000 | 0.91 |
| Tyquan Thornton | NE | WR | 4.03 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 3.36 | $6,000 | 0.67 |
| Mike Gesicki | NE | TE | 3.75 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 2.68 | $7,000 | 0.54 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | IND | TE | 2.48 | $200 | $300 | 12.40 | $6,500 | 0.38 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | IND | WR | 2.33 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.17 | $6,000 | 0.39 |
| Drew Ogletree | IND | TE | 1.75 | $200 | $300 | 8.75 | $6,500 | 0.27 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Hunter Henry: $5,800 DK / $9,000 FD
I get the feeling that people will want to play Henry in this spot, but they won’t want to pay $5,800 for him on DraftKings. The $9,000 price point on FanDuel is a bit more appealing, so I expect him to garner a bit more ownership over there. Henry caught 4-of-7 targets for 39 yards against the Commanders last week and, once again, the Patriots will be without at least two of their best wideouts. He should see an uptick in target share against a Colts defense that has allowed the 4th-most receptions and the 4th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.
Patriots vs. Colts Player Pick’em
Jonathan Taylor more than 2.5 Receptions (1.61x) – Sleeper
I hate to say it, but the prop streak is officially over. Adam Thielen was 1 reception shy of his total on Thursday night. We’ll look to start a new streak with Taylor in Germany. This prop feels a bit low for a player that is very involved in the passing game. Taylor’s snap share continues to climb, and he has had at least 3 receptions in three of his last four games. He has a very respectable 11% target share, and the Patriots have allowed the 5th-most receptions (50) to running backs.