The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Ravens vs. Chargers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Ravens vs. Chargers, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Ravens vs. Chargers
We have a thrilling AFC showdown on our hands between two of the best coaches in the game — John Harbaugh and Jim Harbaugh. In case you weren’t aware, the two are brothers. I’m sure the broadcast will fill you in on this little secret a few hundred times during the game. The Ravens are 7-4 on the season and have one of the best point differentials (+63) in the NFL. The Chargers have a slightly better 7-3 record and a slightly better point differential (+74). Both teams are chasing rivals ahead of them in their respective divisions, so this is an important game for both sides. The Ravens are 2.5-point favorites, and the total is set at 50.5 points.
Key Injuries
Ladd McConkey – Questionable
Hayden Hurst – Out
Baltimore Ravens Preview
Lamar Jackson has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in DFS for many years. He’s on a very short list when it comes to quarterbacks who have the ability to throw for 300 yards and rush for 100 yards on a weekly basis. He has a tougher draw this week against the Chargers, who are 6th in PFF’s pass defense grades and 5th in EPA against the pass. However, Los Angeles is 15th in fantasy points allowed to the position. Given Jackson’s floor/ceiling combo (22+ fantasy points in 9 of 11 games, 32+ fantasy points in 3 of 11 games), he’s firmly in play at the multiplier positions on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Let’s look at the wideout usage for Baltimore this season:
Zay Flowers: 24% target share, 29% air yards share, 29% first-read rate
Rashod Bateman: 15% target share, 26% air yards share, 15% first-read rate
Nelson Agholor: 8% target share, 12% air yards share, 9% first-read rate
Mark Andrews: 12% target share, 14% air yards share, 58% first-read rate
The Ravens did trade for Diontae Johnson, but he’s only caught 1-of-4 targets since the acquisition. He’s an easy fade for the time being. Zay Flowers leads the team in target share, air yards, share, and first-read rate. Consistency isn’t his strong suit, but he certainly offers a high ceiling. Rashod Bateman owns a healthy target share (15%) and sees plenty of deep targets down the field. This isn’t the best matchup, but things open up when opponents sell out to stop Baltimore’s run game.
Nelson Agholor has been held to 1 or fewer receptions in 9 of 11 games this season. He’s cheap, but he’ll likely need to score a touchdown to be a difference-maker on this slate. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are the 3rd and 4th options in this passing attack. The Ravens don’t mind using two tight end sets, and both of these tight ends are great in the passing game. Andrews has been the bigger red-zone threat recently, but Likely tends to have a higher aDOT. The two are comparable plays on DraftKings, but Likely is $2,000 cheaper than Andrews on FanDuel.
Derrick Henry is no longer on pace for 2,000 rushing yards after being held to 65 and 68 yards in the last 2 games. For whatever reason, he tends to get overlooked in DFS on all slates. Even on Showdown slates, he tends to garner less ownership than the other expensive plays. I view him as an elite tournament play this evening. The Chargers are 4th in both EPA against the run and fantasy points allowed to running backs, but how many times have we seen Henry take over a game and break the DFS slate? With everyone prioritizing Jackson, Henry is going to come in at very reasonable ownership.
The Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL, so very few teams attempt to run the ball against them. When targeting a defense in the NFL, we want ones that are facing a lot of pass attempts because that increases the chances for sacks and turnovers. I don’t love Baltimore’s D/ST here, but they are viable in large-field tournaments. Kicker Justin Tucker is always a good bet to make multiple field goals.
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Los Angeles Chargers Preview
The Chargers have been one of the better stories in the NFL this season. They are 7-3 and have a great chance to make the postseason. They could really turn some heads with a win over the Ravens. Justin Herbert dealt with a couple of injuries earlier in the season but seems to be back at full strength now. He’s scored at least 17 fantasy points in 5 straight games and has topped 24 fantasy points in 2 of those games. He faces the biggest pass-funnel defense in the NFL tonight, as the Ravens are 1st in rushing yards allowed per game and dead last in passing yards allowed per game this season. Herbert can run a little too, which puts him on my radar at the multiplier roster spots.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage in the games that Quentin Johnston has been active this season:
Ladd McConkey: 24% target share, 31% air yards share, 29% first-read rate
Quentin Johnston: 17% target share, 28% air yards share, 24% first-read rate
Josh Palmer: 11% target share, 18% air yards share, 14% first-read rate
Will Dissly: 14% target share, 7% air yards share, 13% first-read rate
My lineups will all feature Herbert and at least one of his wideouts. Most of my lineups will feature Herbert and at least two of his wideouts. The Ravens have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers and the 9th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Ladd McConkey is coming off a career-high in receiving yards (123), Johnston is a major downfield threat, and Josh Palmer could fly under the radar given the fact that he’s the WR3 on a run-first offense. With Hayden Hurst out, Will Dissly is one of the top point-per-dollar options on the slate (especially on FanDuel). He’s had at least 4 receptions in 5 of the last 6 games.
I’m taking my chances with a full fade of this rushing attack. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are both very capable running backs, but they have a lot working against them. For starters, they are stuck in a timeshare (about 65/35 in favor of Dobbins). To make matters worse, they are facing the best run defense in the NFL. And to cap it all off, this is a game where the Chargers could be trailing. I suppose there’s a scenario where Los Angeles builds a lead early and leans on the ground game, but that’s not a world that I want to be part of. I’m fading both running backs on the Chargers.
The Chargers have a talented defense, but they are facing two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and one of the best running backs in the NFL. I don’t expect to have any exposure to this defense in DFS. Kicker Cameron Dicker is viable, as he’s been very reliable this season.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
As noted earlier, I am planning to fully fade the Chargers rushing attack. I want exposure to Justin Herbert and at least one of his pass catchers in every lineup that I build. On the other side, I will also have 100% exposure to Lamar Jackson. He has scored at least 22 fantasy points in 9 of 11 games this season. Playing him with Derrick Henry could be contrarian on this slate. We’ve seen several games where they both have topped 20 fantasy points, so the typical “don’t play a quarterback and a running back that doesn’t catch a ton of passes from the same team” doesn’t really apply to the Ravens.
Ravens vs. Chargers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 22.59 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 2.05 | $15,500 | 1.46 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 20.78 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 2.00 | $14,000 | 1.48 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 17.58 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.63 | $16,000 | 1.10 |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 16.83 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.87 | $11,500 | 1.46 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 15.20 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.58 | $12,500 | 1.22 |
| J.K. Dobbins | LAC | RB | 13.38 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.34 | $13,500 | 0.99 |
| Will Dissly | LAC | TE | 11.71 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.83 | $7,000 | 1.67 |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 10.74 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.45 | $10,500 | 1.02 |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | WR | 8.51 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.64 | $8,000 | 1.06 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 8.34 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.81 | $9,500 | 0.88 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 8.19 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.86 | $7,500 | 1.09 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | K | 7.49 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.56 | $9,000 | 0.83 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | 7.45 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.49 | $8,500 | 0.88 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 7.23 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 2.26 | $7,000 | 1.03 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 6.72 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.24 | $8,000 | 0.84 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 5.64 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.41 | $9,000 | 0.63 |
| Chargers | LAC | DST | 5.26 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.46 | $8,500 | 0.62 |
| Diontae Johnson | BAL | WR | 4.67 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.56 | $10,000 | 0.47 |
| Gus Edwards | LAC | RB | 4.17 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.49 | $7,500 | 0.56 |
| Nelson Agholor | BAL | WR | 3.52 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.47 | $6,500 | 0.54 |
| Jalen Reagor | LAC | WR | 2.72 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.40 | $5,500 | 0.49 |
| Stone Smartt | LAC | TE | 2.09 | $200 | $300 | 10.45 | $5,000 | 0.42 |
| Tucker Fisk | LAC | TE | 2.07 | $200 | $300 | 10.35 | $5,000 | 0.41 |
| Derius Davis | LAC | WR | 1.52 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.52 | $5,500 | 0.28 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Derrick Henry: $10,800 DK / $16,000 FD
It’s strange calling Derrick Henry a sleeper (especially this time of year), but his price point and matchup are going to keep ownership to a very reasonable level. Quarterbacks are always popular targets in Showdown slates, and that should especially be the case tonight. With many wanting to pair the quarterbacks with wideouts, it’s easy to see how Henry’s ownership is going to be suppressed. I view him as an excellent tournament play given the fact that he’s already topped 28 fantasy points in 5 games this season.
Ravens vs. Chargers Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 25-15
Will Dissly more than 4.5 receptions (1.99x) – Sleeper Fantasy
After a loss on a tight end last night, we are going right back to the well. Will Dissly has recorded at least 4 receptions in 5 of the last 6 games and should see a small uptick in route share and potentially target share with Hayden Hurst ruled out of tonight’s game. While the Chargers have one of the highest rush rates in the NFL, they will see the matchup in front of them. The Ravens are the biggest pass-funnel defense in the league. I expect more passing than usual from the Chargers.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus