The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Ravens at Chiefs
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Ravens at Chiefs, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Ravens at Chiefs
The wait is over! After 7 months without football, the NFL starts up again on Thursday night. We typically don’t see the best matchups in these spots, but the NFL is giving us a banger right out of the gate. We have the defending champion Chiefs and the Super Bowl-hopeful Ravens squaring off in Kansas City. This is a rematch of the AFC Championship game. It should be a great game, as the spread is set at 3 points and the total is set at 46.5 points.
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Key Injuries
Marquise Brown – Out
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Out
Keaton Mitchell – Out
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
How great is it to be talking football again? The NFL season goes by so fast that it makes every week that much better when it comes to fantasy and betting. The Chiefs are looking to become the first team ever to win back-to-back-to-back Super Bowls. There is so much that has to go right for a team to make it to the Super Bowl but having Patrick Mahomes under center and Andy Reid as the head coach is an incredible starting point. They open the season against the Ravens, who finished the 2023 season as the top defense according to DVOA.
While Baltimore is expected to have a stout defense once again, targeting quarterbacks in Showdown is always a viable strategy. And more often than not, targeting Patrick Mahomes in any type of fantasy football contest is a viable strategy. While he didn’t flash as much upside during the regular season in 2023, we saw some incredible outings from Mahomes in the playoffs. He should have more playmakers in the passing game this season, and we know the Chiefs love to throw the ball (6th in situation-neutral pass rate last season). It’s also worth noting that he’s coming off a season where he rushed for a career-high 389 yards. It’s possible that one of the quarterbacks won’t end up on the optimal lineup but not likely.
Rashee Rice was the clear #1 wideout for Kansas City in the second half of last season. His target share and air yards share over the final 8 games were both over 20%. He could be primed for a breakout year in his sophomore season. The Chiefs brought in Marqiuse Brown, but he will not suit up for the opener. This could pave the way for the 28th overall pick in Xavier Worthy. Reid tends to ease his rookies into action, but Worthy was very involved in the preseason when Mahomes was on the field. He can stretch the field and offers a big ceiling at his price point.
We know the Chiefs spread out their receiver snaps, so it makes sense to mix and match Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman, and Skyy Moore if you are building multiple lineups. I don’t feel particularly good about any of them for cash games or single-entry tournaments. Travis Kelce is now 35 years old and coming off a down regular season by his standards. The high price point makes him a tough sell in cash games, but he’s always live for a couple of touchdowns in these primetime games. Noah Gray could have a bigger role this season with Kelce aging and is arguably the best point-per-dollar punt on DraftKings ($1,400).
Isiah Pacheco is expected to be the Chiefs early-down running back once again this season. He will still have a role in the passing game but will lose snaps to Samaje Perine on obvious passing downs. The Ravens were a middle-of-the-pack defense against the run last season. Pacheco scored 8 touchdowns over his final 8 games last season (including the playoffs), so he’s certainly viable on Thursday. Perine and preseason favorite Carson Steele are reasonable punts on DraftKings.
I don’t have any strong takes on the defenses in this game. We have two of the best offenses in the NFL squaring off. Any defense in the NFL can force a turnover and take it to the house. While I don’t mind getting exposure to the Chiefs defense in my large-field tournament set, they aren’t a priority for me on this slate. The Chiefs have one of the most reliable kickers in the game in Harrison Butker and the Ravens should have a good red zone defense, so we could see the Chiefs settle for a few field goals in this one.
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Baltimore Ravens Preview
The Ravens nearly made it to the Super Bowl last season but fell short against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. They return most of their same offensive weapons and could be even more explosive since this will be the second season with Todd Monken calling the plays. We saw Baltimore’s pass rate over expectation go up under Monken last season, so we should expect more of the same in 2024. Lamar Jackson is close to a must-play in all formats and is the easy click at MVP and CPT in Showdown. He’s one of a very small number of quarterbacks that can throw for 300+ yards and rush for 100+ yards in a single game. The Chiefs had an elite pass defense last season, but Jackson is going to be productive one way or another.
Odell Beckham is no longer on the roster, but the Ravens invested a 4th round pick in Devontez Walker. He’ll certainly see some snaps in this game, but will likely play behind the trio of Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor. Given the fact that the Chiefs were one of the best defenses in the NFL against outside receivers, Bateman is a large-field tournament play at best. We did see Flowers come alive in the second half of last season and the Ravens like to move him around the formation. He’s the safest of the four receivers but has to compete with two talented tight ends for targets.
Speaking of the tight ends, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are going to be an incredible duo if they can stay healthy this season. Andrews saw over 20% of targets in the games that he played last year and saw 38% of the team’s red-zone targets. He is far too cheap on DraftKings ($6,400). The Chiefs were tough on all wideouts in 2023 but were slightly more susceptible to tight ends than wide receivers (at least in terms of fantasy points allowed). Likely only ran a route on 22% of dropbacks when Andrews was healthy last season, but I would expect him to have a bigger role when both are on the field this season. Of all the cheap punts on DraftKings, Likely is my favorite to score a touchdown.
2023 Wideout Usage:
Zay Flowers: 23% target share, 24% air yards share
Rashod Bateman: 12% target share, 20% air yards share
Mark Andrews: 21% target share, 19% air yards share
Derrick Henry was the big offseason acquisition for the Ravens. While Jackson doesn’t throw to running backs often, Henry has never had a big role in the passing game. He’s now playing with a better offensive line and in an offense that is constantly in the red zone. The two drawbacks for Henry are age (30) and Jackson potentially stealing goal-line carries. With J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards gone and Keaton Mitchell on IR, Henry should have a huge role right out of the gate. From a matchup standpoint, it’s much easier to move the ball on the ground against the Chiefs than it is through the air. Justice Hill will play the backup role and should see more snaps if the Ravens fall behind early.
As noted with the Chiefs defense, I don’t have a strong take on either defense in this game. Mahomes doesn’t take many sacks or make many mistakes. It doesn’t mean that a fluke play can’t happen and that the Ravens’ defense can’t find its way onto the optimal lineup, but they aren’t a priority in my eyes. Justin Tucker might be the best kicker of all-time and is always viable on Showdown slates.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
DFS Showdown is less about who you play and more about how you play them. You should be thinking about correlations and different ways this game could play out. On the Chiefs side, it makes sense to stack Mahomes with one or two of his pass-catchers. If he’s going to have a big game, he’ll likely carry one or two of his wideouts to a big game as well. On the Ravens side, Jackson has single-handedly carried his team time and time again from a fantasy standpoint. If all of the touchdowns come on the ground, there’s a chance playing Jackson solo ends up being the optimal route.
You should also be thinking about the type of contest you are playing. If you are playing cash games, you might want to consider using the kickers over the volatile wideout options. Given how competitive I expect this game to be, I doubt I’ll be building any onslaught stacks (5-1) in tournaments.
Ravens-Chiefs DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 22.50 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 2.16 | $17,500 | 1.29 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 20.39 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 1.79 | $17,000 | 1.20 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 17.31 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 2.28 | $10,000 | 1.73 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 16.37 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.71 | $14,000 | 1.17 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 15.24 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.81 | $12,500 | 1.22 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 14.51 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.61 | $14,500 | 1.00 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 13.54 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.69 | $11,500 | 1.18 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 12.86 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 2.01 | $11,000 | 1.17 |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 11.09 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.91 | $8,500 | 1.30 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 7.81 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.50 | $7,500 | 1.04 |
| Justin Tucker | BAL | K | 7.03 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.41 | $9,000 | 0.78 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 6.91 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.50 | $9,000 | 0.77 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 6.89 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.91 | $8,000 | 0.86 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 5.75 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.31 | $7,500 | 0.77 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 5.49 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 2.11 | $8,000 | 0.69 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 5.21 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.30 | $8,500 | 0.61 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 4.66 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.91 | $5,500 | 0.85 |
| Nelson Agholor | BAL | WR | 4.65 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.37 | $6,500 | 0.72 |
| Justin Watson | KC | WR | 4.16 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.30 | $7,000 | 0.59 |
| Samaje Perine | KC | RB | 3.57 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.19 | ||
| Mecole Hardman | KC | WR | 3.38 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.88 | $6,500 | 0.52 |
| Carson Steele | KC | RB | 1.47 | $200 | $300 | 7.35 | $5,000 | 0.29 |
| Jared Wiley | KC | TE | 1.44 | $200 | $300 | 7.20 | $5,000 | 0.29 |
| Skyy Moore | KC | WR | 1.23 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 0.56 | $6,000 | 0.21 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Xavier Worthy: $5,400 DK / $8,700 FD
There are a lot of superstars to pay up for on this slate. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are close must-plays, while Mark Andrews is severely underpriced on DraftKings. Spending up on these players is going to lead to a lot of stars and scrubs types of builds. On top of that, Xavier Worthy is a rookie playing for Andy Reid. I don’t expect his ownership to be that high, which makes him an incredible sleeper on this slate. The Chiefs are hoping he can help fill the void that Tyreek Hill left in terms of a downfield threat and Hollywood Brown is not going to suit up for the opener.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Player Pick
Season record: 0-0
Derrick Henry more than 0.5 anytime touchdowns (1.68x) – Sleeper Fantasy
As noted earlier, Henry has very little competition for carries in this offense outside of Jackson. The coaches have hinted that they want to get Henry to 300 carries this year and the best way to move the ball on the Chiefs is on the ground. If and when Baltimore gets near the goal-line, I think they will welcome King Henry to the team with a touchdown.
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