NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 5
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS advice for this week’s main slate by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or SquirrelPatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 5
Rank your three favorite players for cash games, in order:
| Analyst | Rank 1 | Rank 2 | Rank 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notorious | Jordan Mason | Diontae Johnson | Jordan Whittington |
| SquirrelPatrol | Jordan Mason | Kyren Williams | Jordan Whittington |
| Stevietpfl | Jordan Mason | Diontae Johnson | Jordan Whittington |
| Krayton | Jordan Mason | Jordan Whittington | Chuba Hubbard |
| ebeimfohr | Jordan Mason | Diontae Johnson | Tre Tucker |
| ncorfield8k | Jordan Mason | Deebo Samuel | Tucker Kraft |
| Davis Mattek | Chuba Hubbard | Diontae Johnson | Tre Tucker |
What is your favorite correlation and why?
Notorious: Deshaun Watson + Amari Cooper – Gross, right? If you take away the names and look strictly at the data, everything suggests this is a tremendous stack at the price, especially given the ownership projections. The problem is, I see the names and immediately want to throw up in my mouth a little. Watson is not a good quarterback at this stage of his career, but he has scored at least 12 fantasy points in every game this season and is averaging just under 30 rushing yards per game. He should have had a much bigger game last week, as Cooper dropped a pass that was intercepted and then had a 65-yard touchdown called back from a bogus holding penalty. As for Cooper, he has a massive difference between his actual fantasy points per game (10.4) and his expected fantasy points per game (17.1). I think these two can right the ship against the Commanders, who are 29th or worse in PFF’s grades against the pass, EPA against the pass, and fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks and wide receivers.
SquirrelPatrol: Brock Purdy + Brandon Aiyuk + Trey McBride – There are countless statistics we can look at when picking our DFS lineups, but the most straightforward is implied team total. San Francisco has the highest implied team total (28.75) on the slate, and they also have the best odds to be the highest-scoring team on Sunday (+450). Most of the field isn’t looking beyond Jordan Mason, but San Francisco also has the 2nd-most passing yards per game in the NFL. Purdy ranks 3rd in passing yards per game, and Aiyuk is seeing single-digit pOWN% despite ranking 2nd in the NFL in yards per catch last season. A bring-back from the Arizona side may not be necessary, but McBride stands out at the TE position returning from injury, and he had a game of 10 receptions and 102 yards receiving against the 49ers last season.
Stevietpfl: Jordan Love + Jayden Reed + Jordan Whittington – Neither defense has been able to stop anyone, and we get great matchups for both passing games. Whittington has stepped up with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out. He ran a route on 87.5% of the team’s dropbacks in Week 4 and led the team with a 27.6% target share. I still think Tutu Atwell has the highest ceiling, but I like the price point for Whittington. In the 2 games with Love, Reed has gone for 138 yards and 139 yards, scoring a touchdown in each of those games. Love should be getting closer to 100%, and Reed gets a huge bump with Love at quarterback. I will have multiple stacks of this game, and Love will be the quarterback in my main lineup.
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Krayton: Jordan Love + Jayden Reed – Although Love got off to a slow start against the Vikings last week, he was able to complete 32 of his 54 passes and threw for 389 yards while playing from behind. He should have an elite matchup against the Rams, who have given up the 5th-most fantasy points per game (18) to QBs. We just saw both Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray throw for over 260 yards in the same matchup while throwing for 3 TDs each. Reed was able to catch 7 out of his 8 targets for 139 yards and a TD last week. With Christian Watson most likely out, Reed should continue to get lots of looks, and he has the big-play upside we are looking for. Along with Reed, I will definitely get exposure to Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and Tucker Kraft. I like the idea of targeting two Packers pass catchers in my single-entry builds, which was similar to last week when I had C.J. Stroud with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. On the other side of the game, Jordan Whittington will be a popular value play, and Kyren Williams is one of my favorite RB targets to get exposure to on the Rams side.
ebeimfohr: Trevor Lawrence + Brian Thomas – It has been about as bad of a start as possible for Lawrence and the Jags, but this is both a great bounce-back spot and maybe their last shot before changes are made. The Colts defense has sneakily become an elite target for opposing stacks, as they are not a super strong unit at full strength, and they are currently completely injury riddled. Justin Fields lit them up last week behind a makeshift offensive line, and in fairness to the Jags, they have played some tougher defenses to start the season. Stacking Lawrence with Thomas is my ideal way to go, with the rookie looking like the best player on the Jags offense so far. He has 9 targets in back-to-back games, and even with Christian Kirk generating plenty of targets, the rookie looks like the engine behind the pass game, with his ability to get open at will.
ncorfield8k: Josh Allen + Keon Coleman – This is a large-field tournament play, but this pairing is going completely overlooked by the field and has major upside. The Texans have a good enough offense to keep the game competitive. The Bills have scored 30.5 points per game this season, which is the 2nd most in the league, but the Bills’ pass catchers have run such a split rotation that nobody has been able to separate. With Khalil Shakir out for this game, Coleman is a solid bet to see increased opportunities at a reasonable price tag.
Davis Mattek: Brock Purdy + Deebo Samuel + Brandon Aiyuk or George Kittle – The Arizona defense is bottom 5 in EPA versus both the rush and the pass. Teams can get whatever they want running the ball versus Arizona. So why would I want Purdy? The first thing is that while Jordan Mason has had a giant rushing workload, they actually are below historical Kyle Shanahan rush rates in the red zone. Also, by EPA + CPOE composite and PFF grade, Purdy is playing the best football of his career. I think he has become a little underrated and is essentially going to be playing 7-on-7 this week because the Arizona pass rush is so weak. Given how low the pOWN% is on Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle, I’ll be double-stacking Purdy as much as possible.
Who’s your favorite contrarian play (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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