Week 10 NFL DFS QB Projections: DraftKings Values & Sleepers
Somehow, we’re already at Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season. Football season goes by like that, doesn’t it? It takes forever to get here, and then it’s gone in a flash. We do still have a couple of months to go before another long offseason, so let’s not get all weepy about it just yet.
Thanks to another bevy of bye weeks and more European shenanigans, we’re running it back with our second straight 10-game main slate on DraftKings. And, as was the case last week, the QB pool is noticeably thin on high-end options. Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts are on vacation, while Josh Allen and the Bills are playing on Monday. That said, the overall state of the position doesn’t look quite as grim as it did in Week 9.
Here’s an overarching view of the top QB plays on DK this week.
Week 10 DraftKings Projections — Quarterback
Joe Burrow ($6,800) – 23.19 projected FPTs
After a few extremely rough games to begin the season, the Bengals finally look like the Bengals again. Cincinnati has reeled off 4 consecutive wins heading into Sunday’s suddenly-interesting clash at home against the upstart Texans.
Burrow’s ailing calf seems to be back near full strength. Based on the way he’s played over the past few weeks, it feels safe to attribute this offense’s early-season wobbles to the injury Burrow sustained in training camp. While he may be healthy now, though, his teammates may not be. Ja’Marr Chase (back) and Tee Higgins (hamstring) have been missing practices this week, so we’ll see whether they’re healthy enough to give it a go on Sunday.
As of now – with both top WRs projected to play – Burrow grades out as the best QB play on DraftKings by a healthy margin. Our projections have him with a median value about 3 points higher than that of the next-best QB, and he’s still relatively affordable at just $6,800. Lamar Jackson, the priciest quarterback on the board at $8,000, draws a rough on-paper matchup against Cleveland.
If Chase and/or Higgins wind up missing the game, Burrow’s projection could get dinged. Of course, that scenario would also make the Bengals stack cheaper on aggregate. Tyler Boyd ($4,600) presumably becomes your punt WR du jour if even one of the star pass-catchers sits.
Cincy’s 27-point total is among the highest of Week 10, and the matchup is a good one. We know the Texans can put points on the board, but let’s not ignore the fact that they also managed to surrender 37 points to the Buccaneers last week. Houston is 26th in DVOA against the pass, so it’s a stellar spot for the Bengals this week.
Burrow’s projecting to be the chalkiest QB on the slate, but it seems like good chalk, especially if he has his weapons.
Dak Prescott ($6,700) – 20.69 projected FPTs
It took several weeks, but it sure seems like Dak Prescott has gotten the hang of the Cowboys’ new offense. He’s scored at least 24 DK points in 3 consecutive games, including back-to-back 30-burgers. He’s thrown 8 touchdowns to just 1 interception in that span while adding a rushing score, for good measure.
After last week’s hard-fought loss in Philly, the Cowboys will return home to host a lesser division rival in the Giants. Dallas blew the doors off of New York, 40-0, back in Week 1, though the defense did most of the damage that night. Dallas jumped out to a huge lead and relied on Tony Pollard to salt it away.
The blowout risk is real in the rematch, of course, as the Cowboys are massive 16.5-point favorites. That’s the widest spread on the slate, and justifiably so. The Giants are going back to the well with Tommy “Danny” DeVito under center, and an awful lot would have to go wrong for Dallas in order for the visitors to keep this thing close.
Prescott is certainly viable, especially if he’s more involved in the shootout this time around. We did see him go crazy in Dallas’ demolition of the Rams just a few weeks ago, so I wouldn’t get too bogged down with his previous underwhelming showing against the Giants.
Top DFS Sleepers for Week 10
Kyler Murray ($5,700) – 17.27 projected FPTs
At long last, the Cardinals are expecting Kyler Murray to return to the lineup for Sunday’s home clash against the Falcons. This will be Kyler’s season debut on the heels of last season’s ACL tear. At this point, Arizona is happy to pretend last week’s disaster featuring Clayton Tune under center never happened.
Much of Murray’s fantasy appeal stems from his ability to affect the game with his legs. Coming off of this injury, though, it’s worth wondering whether the Cardinals will open up the full playbook for him right away. We can reasonably expect some rushing considering that’s a huge part of his game, but I’d be surprised if Murray came out there and took 10-15 carries right away.
Still, he’s affordable ($5,700) and in the dome in a plus matchup against a Falcons defense that has scuffled mightily against the pass. Arizona is 28th in pDVOA, and we just saw them get gouged by Joshua Dobbs in his Vikings debut off the bench.
DeAndre Hopkins is obviously gone, but Kyler still has plenty of playmaking at his disposal. Marquise Brown ($5,200) is projecting to be among the most popular value WRs on the slate, while Rondale Moore ($3,000) and Trey McBride ($3,500) are looking like trendy punt plays.
If we’re playing those guys, why aren’t we playing Murray with them? The Cardinals’ QB1 is projected for about 7% ownership on DK.
Taylor Heinicke ($5,100) – 16.2 projected FPTs
The Falcons have seemingly kicked Desmond Ridder to the curb, so Taylor Heinicke will draw his second straight start on the other side of Kyler’s game. The Falcons are actually 1.5-point road favorites here in a late-afternoon game with a middling 43-point total.
If you’re done with the Falcons at this point, I can hardly blame you. Arthur Smith seems to love nothing more than not giving his best football players the chance to succeed. This man gave Jonnu Smith a goal-line carry last week!
Still, there’s merit to looking Heinicke’s way as a value QB. Drake London ($5,500) is a candidate to return after missing last week’s game with a groin injury. In theory, that should boost Atlanta’s passing attack. Kyle Pitts ($4,100) is always alluring as a value tight end, while even Bijan should be more involved in the passing game…at some point.
The matchup is prime, at least. We’ve been picking on the Cardinals all year, as the Broncos are the only defense in the league rating out worse in both tDVOA and pDVOA. Nobody will confuse Heinicke for Kyler any time soon, but he does have at least a little rushing ability, too.
Jared Goff ($6,400) – 19.17 projected FPTs
The Lions were off last week, but they’ll return on Sunday for a matchup in LA against the Chargers. The Bolts seem to play wild, high-scoring affairs just about every other week, and this game will take place in the semi-indoor conditions at SoFi. Detroit is a 3-point road favorite in this one, which actually has the highest over/under of Week 10 at 48.5 points.
Goff was a little wobbly in his two games before the bye, but he’s in the midst of a fine season overall. We know the Lions would generally prefer to be a run-first offense, but the tight spread means Detroit may not necessarily be in a position to simply milk the clock via the ground game for the majority of the 60 minutes.
Goff is only a few hundred bucks cheaper than Burrow and Prescott, which explains why he’s projecting for almost no ownership (5.3%). The Chargers’ defense is another unit struggling to contain opposing passing attacks, and they come into this one ranked 21st in pDVOA.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300) and Sam LaPorta ($5,700) are going to be top targets at their respective positions, as well. As is the case with the Cardinals, I see no reason not to pair the QB with his primary pass-catchers, especially if that’s a way to make your build a little different while eating some skill position chalk.