Week 6 NFL DFS QB Projections: DraftKings Values & Sleepers
Happy Week 6! Regular-season MLB is in the rearview mirror, and we’ve still got a couple of weeks until the day-to-day grind of the NBA campaign gets underway. In the meantime, we’ve got another beefer of an NFL slate on tap for Sunday. There are 11 games on the board this week with quite a few interesting matchups.
The QB position is particularly intriguing, especially considering who’s not in the player pool. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen are all missing from the main slate this week, which really leaves Jalen Hurts as the lone true pay-up option.
So, with that in mind, which quarterbacks should we be building our stacks around on DraftKings on Sunday?
Week 6 DraftKings Projections — Quarterback
Jalen Hurts ($8,200, 24.15 projected FPTs)
As mentioned, Hurts is really in a tier of his own this week. He’s the only QB priced above $8,000, and he’s $600 more expensive than the next-priciest passer, Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600). The Birds will look to stay undefeated when they head to Jersey to take on the Jets in the late window on Sunday afternoon.
We know the Jets’ offense is a bit dicey, but the defense has fared pretty well. New York is a respectable 15th in total DVOA, including 15th against the run. That matters to Hurts, of course, as he’s getting more rushing attempts than any other quarterback in football. After leading the league in QB carries last year, he’s doing more of the same this year. Hurts has 55 totes through 5 games, including a season-high 15 in last week’s win over the Rams.
The Jets have also yielded just 1 rushing touchdown through 5 weeks, while Hurts has plunged himself into the end zone 4 times. He’s really gotten it going through the air of late, however, with back-to-back 300-yard efforts. Hurts has also tossed at least 1 TD in each game to this point.
Hurts is always viable even in GPPs without a stacking partner thanks to that rushing ability. Both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith will run you at least $7,000 on DraftKings, while Dallas Goedert is up to $4,800 after his big outing in LA last Sunday. We’ve got 6 other QBs projected to be more popular than Hurts this week, so paying down at the position looks like the trendy way to build.
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600, 21.64 projected FPTs)
The Dolphins put up another big score in their easy win over the Giants last weekend, which was nice to see on the heels of their underwhelming showing in Buffalo the week prior. Tua Tagovailoa threw a pair of interceptions, but he also accounted for multiple TD passes and 300+ yards for the third time already this season.
Miami is in another advantageous spot this week at home against a still-winless Carolina outfit. There’s blowout risk here considering Carolina’s offensive woes, and the Dolphins are appropriately favored by nearly 2 full touchdowns. The matchup is terrific, of course, as the Panthers rank just 29th in tDVOA. They’ve actually been respectable against the pass (11th), but they’re dead last in terms of stopping the run. Miami’s 31-point implied team total is the top mark on the board.
Raheem Mostert ($6,400) should emerge as a chalky midrange running back play with De’Von Achane on IR, but Tagovailoa is only projecting for about 6% ownership on DK. I think you can stack them together given Mostert’s role in the passing game.
So, yeah, Tua looks like a great play, especially given the slight discount from Hurts. Stacking him with Tyreek Hill ($9,300) is an obvious way to get some exposure to the best offense on the slate. We did see Jaylen Waddle ($7,600) finally find the end zone last week, while it’ll be interesting to see how/if they incorporate newcomer Chase Claypool ($3,000). You can get some natural leverage on the popular Mostert by stacking Tua with his wideouts.
Durham Smythe ($2,900) didn’t attract a single target last week, but he does have at least 3 targets in 3 of the 5 games to this point. For the salary, I have no qualms with punting with Smythe in Miami stacks as a way to get a little different.
Justin Fields ($7,300, 21.64 projected FPTs)
The Bears’ offense sleepwalked through the first 3 weeks of the season, but we’ve seen them come around in a big way over the past couple of games. Justin Fields has thrown a whopping 8 touchdown passes over the past 2 games after totaling just 3 through the first 3 games. He’s also been displaying his rushing prowess on occasion, but he hasn’t broken a slate with his legs just yet.
Chicago is in another good spot this week when they host the struggling Vikings. Minnesota is 19th in tDVOA, though they’ve struggled more against the pass (21st) than they have vs. the run (14th).
Game log watchers will presumably be all over Fields this week, but it’s worth noting the Bears are actually 3-point underdogs at home here. Their 20.75 implied team total shows that Vegas isn’t buying what they’re selling just yet. Fields’ salary has risen amid his hot run, though it’s still easy enough to stack him with DJ Moore ($6,500). Moore has 3 100-yard games over his last 4, while he’s scored 5 TDs over the past 3 weeks, as well.
Cole Kmet ($4,600) is a reasonable midrange target at tight end, as he’s quietly logged at least 5 targets in 4 of the Bears’ 5 games. If Chicago stacks are going to be somewhat popular in tournaments, I’ll be happy to come in under the field.
Top DFS Sleepers for Week 6
Matthew Stafford ($6,100, 20.61 projected FPTs)
It looks like paying down into the $6,000 range will be the way most build this week. As of this writing, Joe Burrow ($6,300), Trevor Lawrence ($6,500), and C.J. Stroud ($6,000) are the only 3 QBs on the slate projecting for double-digit ownership on DraftKings.
One guy in the same range coming in around 7% is Matthew Stafford, which is interesting. The Rams get the Cardinals this week, and their 27.5 implied team total is the second-highest mark on the slate. Arizona is an elite matchup, ranking 30th in both tDVOA and pDVOA. This game will also take place in the semi-indoor conditions at SoFi.
Cooper Kupp made his season debut last week and immediately attracted 12 targets. Kupp’s return didn’t negatively impact Puka Nacua, who garnered 11 targets of his own and found the end zone for the second consecutive week. Kupp ($9,000) and Nacua ($8,000) are both incredibly expensive already, yet both are still projected for about 11% ownership. If you’re going to pay up for them, why not stack them with their affordable QB?
The Rams have taken to the air on about 63% of their plays this season, which is the fifth-highest rate in football. In an attackable matchup, Stafford looks like a logical pivot away from some of the chalkier QB options in the same price range.
Joshua Dobbs ($5,200, 16.95 projected FPTs)
Many thought the Cardinals would be the worst team in the league coming into the season, but they’ve been surprisingly competitive through 5 weeks. Arizona is a 7-point ‘dog on the road on the other side of that game in LA.
This isn’t the same Rams defense we saw win the Super Bowl a couple of years ago, however. LA is just 27th in DVOA. They’re 25th against the pass and 22nd against the run, and we can stack the Cardinals quite affordably.
Dobbs didn’t do much last week against the Bengals, but he’s held his own in general since surprisingly landing the Cardinals’ QB1 job. He’s only $5,200 this week with a positive game script. Marquise Brown (31%) and Zach Ertz (27%) have been hogging most of the targets, and they’re popping as stellar point-per-dollar values at their respective positions.
James Conner is out, so Arizona will have to rely on Keaontay Ingram, Emari Demercado, and Tony Jones to handle most of the running game. If we’re expecting Arizona to fall behind here, though, there’s no telling how involved any of them will be. It’s safe to assume Arizona won’t be quite as run-heavy this week without Conner in there to shoulder the load.
Dobbs isn’t a comfortable play, but he’s a logical target with Brown (17%) and Ertz (11%) projecting to be popular.