NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report: Week 7
Does defense matter in NFL DFS? It’s certainly not as impactful in between the margins as we once thought, but there is still value on the extremes. When we find the soft spots, we can sometimes capitalize on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Using GridironIQ, we can easily locate teams that present enhanced probability of daily fantasy point production. In combination with projections and projected ownership, we can layer on a level headed review of run game matchups to help us make our choices for Sunday’s daily fantasy football contests. Let’s take a look at some top matchups for this coming week.
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Week 7 NFL DFS Run Game Matchups Report
Aaron Jones
Opponent: Houston Texans
Rush DVOA (Rank): 28th
Expected Points Added (Rank): 1st
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 1st
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 3rd
It’s easy to think that the above metrics are skewed by King Henry’s monster performance in Week 6, but Houston has pretty much been giving it up to running backs all season. For example…
Derrick Henry (Week 6): 212 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns (2 receptions, 52 yards)
Dalvin Cook (Week 4): 130 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns (2 receptions, 16 yards)
James Conner (Week 3): 109 rushing yards, 1 touchdown (4 receptions, 40 yards)
Ravens backfield (Week 2): 176 rushing yards, 1 touchdown (3 receptions, 33 yards)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Week 1): 138 rushing yards, 1 touchdown
After see running back explosions against them week after week, Aaron Jones must be at home licking his chops right about now. Especially considering he just came off of a game in which he had to face arguably one of the worst matchups for running backs against Tampa.
So when it comes to analyzing matchups in the run game, it doesn’t get much better than Running Back X vs. the Houston Texans.
Alvin Kamara
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Rush DVOA (Rank): 26th
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 12th
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 9th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 4th
If putting the above metrics side-by-side with Houston, the Panthers don’t appear as bad as the Texans. But where they inch closer is in the amount of receptions the Panthers allow to opposing running backs (the most in the league, by the way). I don’t know about you, but I have trouble thinking of another running back who can better take advantage of that than Alvin Kamara.
This number is probably inflated a bit by the fact that Michael Thomas has missed all but one game this season (and he is due back in Week 7, for what it’s worth), but Kamara leads all running backs in the league in terms of market share of his team’s targets (25.7%). James White (24%) and Mike Davis (22.1%) are the only other two running backs in the league north of 20%.
And it’s not like Kamara can’t get it done in the running game either. The only game he didn’t have double-digit rushing attempts was the game in which he had 13 receptions (on 14 targets), 139 receiving yards, and 2 touchdown catches. In total, he’s already found the end zone four times on the ground through their five games.
So you can go ahead and put Kamara up there with Jones as one of my favorite RB options on the entire slate.
Todd Gurley
Opponent: Detroit Lions
Rush DVOA (Rank): 30th
Expected Points Allowed (Rank): 3rd
Rush Yards Allowed (Rank): 10th
Fpts Allowed to RB (Rank): 6th
Based on these matchup metrics, Gurley is going to be one of my favorite running backs to target in tournaments in the mid tier. For example, a very early run of our Projected Ownership has him at just 12.1% on DraftKings (which would make him just the eighth highest owned RB).
When comparing Gurley to the above two guys already listed, there are actually a lot of similarities. For one, all are on teams that have an implied team total in the 29-30 range. Furthermore, Gurley has an extremely similar snap rate on the season (55%) compared to Jones (56%), while Kamara edges both of them out in a big way in that department (69%).
Where Gurley lags behind—and ultimately why his price tag does too probably—is in the opportunity he sees in the offense. Both Kamara and Jones see 34%+ in total market share on their team, while Gurley is down at ‘just’ 29%.
But if you catch the game where Gurley hits the high end of his range of outcomes, you could be looking at something like what he did in Week 5 (121 rushing yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions for 29 yards). Now let’s see, who was that game against? The Carolina Panthers! I’m pretty sure we just talked about them being a good matchup too. There’s no reason Gurley can’t do the same thing in a similarly good matchup against Detroit.
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