NFL DFS Stack Spotlight: Week 10
Stacking is an essential part of NFL DFS. Each week it is important that we identify the best available correlations and apply them carefully to our DFS lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer has a stacking feature we can use to locate high quality options each week, and we’ll use it now to discuss three of the top options from our NFL projections. We can then compare that to the projected ownership to help make our decisions for daily fantasy football.
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Week 10 DFS Stacks Report
Buffalo Bills
Top Players to Stack: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, John Brown
Projected Fantasy Points: 52.41 FanDuel/Yahoo
Opponent: 61.65 DraftKings
Top Bring Backs: DeAndre Hopkins
Expected Ownership: mid-to-high
Obviously, I could have led off this article with the two Aarons and Davante from Green Bay. They have the highest combined projection of any QB + 2 RB/WR/TE in our Stack Finder, but they are also very expensive and have the highest Projected Ownership.
So let’s look at this Buffalo trio instead. Their Projected Ownership came in a little higher than I had anticipated, but a lot of that is due to the fact that Allen and Diggs have the highest Projected Ownership at their respective positions (Diggs is actually second highest on DraftKings). That usually isn’t too worrisome at quarterback, where ownership is usually spread out overall. For example, Allen has 17.78% pOWN on FanDuel and 15.3% on DraftKings. Diggs is in the 24-28% range though depending on site.
So Brown could be the key to making this stack a little different if that is what you are looking for. You could either fade Diggs—and just go with an Allen/Brown mini-stack—or stack all three of them together. In that game last week against Seattle, we saw Allen and the Bills take it to the air frequently. Brown saw his most targets in quite some time in that game (11). To put that into perspective, he hasn’t had more than six since Week 1 (when he saw 10).
With the highest total on the slate, this game obviously has some shootout potential. It’s hard not to like the Buffalo side just as much as the Arizona side.
Los Angeles Rams
Top Players to Stack: Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp
Projected Fantasy Points: 34.46 FanDuel/Yahoo, 39.66 DraftKings
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Top Bring Backs: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf
Expected Ownership: mid
Let’s be honest, no one really likes stacking the Rams passing game anymore. After throwing for 28 touchdowns in 2017 and 32 in 2018, Goff tossed just 22 of them last year. And that was with the Rams having the eighth highest passing play percentage (62%) in the league. And so far this year, they have the eighth lowest at 54%.
But this Seattle matchup has been like nothing I can recall for quite some time. So far this season, they have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to both the quarterback position and the wide receiver position. They have allowed the most passing yards, the highest Pass%, and the second highest EPA (Expected Points Allowed) in the passing game. Their defense also allows the most plays per game, so there is even more opportunity for yards and points. I’m telling you, it’s fantasy gold.
So almost by default, we are going to have some interest here. I left it at Goff plus just one pass-catcher because I don’t love the idea of using two with how little they have thrown this year. But we saw in their last game (Week 8 against the Dolphins) that they have the upside if they take it to the air. The Rams fell behind early in that one, which resulted in Goff throwing the ball 61 times.
Only one passing touchdown and two interceptions kept his fantasy day in check, but Kupp finished with 25 DraftKings points and Robert Woods finished with 28.4. So in the friendliest passing matchup in the league, I wouldn’t hesitate at all if you want to include Woods in this stack as well.
Houston Texans
Top Players to Stack: Deshaun Watson, Brandin Cooks, Duke Johnson
Projected Fantasy Points: 46.01 FanDuel/Yahoo, 51.67 DraftKings
Opponent: Cleveland Browns
Top Bring Backs: Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper
Expected Ownership: low
Besides Duke Johnson, everyone in this Houston stack (including Will Fuller) is projecting to come in extremely low owned. And even Duke is behind guys like Mike Davis and Aaron Jones in terms of pOWN% at running back.
I started this out with Watson/Cooks/Duke as the stack, but I think you can go any number of ways with Watson + 2 RB/WR/TE. The obvious way to get really different, gain some leverage, and still have a ton of upside is to fade Duke and go Watson/Cooks/Fuller. Those three guys are sitting right around 5% pOWN on FanDuel, and it’s even lower on DraftKings (3ish%).
I wouldn’t argue at all if you want to include Duke in the stack though despite some decent Projected Ownership. I started this blurb with Cooks instead of Fuller because, over the last four games, Cooks has out-targeted Fuller 39 to 30. And if you sort in the Stack Finder by highest points-per-dollar, this Watson/Cooks/Duke trio is just a few spots outside of the Top 10 on DraftKings.
The last thing to note is that this isn’t just a play on how good these Houston skill guys are. The matchup against Cleveland is also very good. They are no Seattle, of course, but the Browns have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season and the seventh most to opposing quarterbacks.