Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 2

Niners running back McCaffrey

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for Week 2, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming featured slate.

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A lot went right in Week 1.

A lot went wrong in Week 1.

I built 3 lineups that I entered into small-field, single-entry, and 3-max tournaments. All 3 lineups scored within 3 points of each other, and all 3 lineups finished a few points shy of the cash line. It’s tough to build 3 completely different lineups and have them all finish so close together, but I was able to accomplish the feat. Unfortunately, that feat resulted in a grand total of $0 returning to my bankroll.

Luckily, I hit the nuts in showdown on Sunday night. I didn’t have Derrick Henry, so I figured my lineup didn’t have much of a chance. In fact, it wasn’t even cashing with 5 minutes left to go in the game. However, I had Josh Allen at CPT and a low-owned Keon Coleman at UTIL. They both went nuclear and vaulted my team all the way up to 2nd in the $444 GPP. I was able to walk away with a cool $15,000, so it ended up being a great week overall.

I’m hoping to carry some of that momentum into Week 2. As always, I’ll talk about my favorite plays at each position, my favorite pivots at each position, and my favorite stacks of the slate. As always, we’ll have to keep an eye on injuries leading up to lineup lock. I will continue to update my Consensus Value Rankings and my Expert Play tags in our NFL DFS optimizer. Let’s dive into the slate!

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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 2

Pretty soon, I’m going to open this article with, “I can’t believe it’s already Week __.” We aren’t to that point yet, but every season flies by, so we shouldn’t take any of these main slates for granted. With a 2-gamer on tap on Monday night (I’ll have a separate Key Personnel for it), there are 12 games on the main slate.

The best part about Week 2? We get to adjust to what we think we learned from Week 1, which usually means overreacting to small samples and convincing ourselves that what we saw a week ago has to be what we’ll see in Week 2. This is the best week to lean on underlying usage (snaps, routes, touches) rather than last week’s box scores.

Top Quarterback Plays

All of the quarterbacks felt too cheap in Week 1, and that’s the case again in Week 2 (at least on DraftKings). We typically see quarterbacks priced in the $8,000+ range, but there are only 2 quarterbacks priced above $7,000 this week. While I do think we should spend up on quarterback more often than not with this soft pricing, there are a few intriguing value plays on my radar.

Tier 1 – Core Plays

Ravens quarterback Jackson

My top quarterback targets for Week 2 are at very different price points, so lineup construction with each player is going to be very different.

Lamar Jackson ($7,000 DK / $8,500 FD) picked up right where he left off last season. He put up 29 fantasy points in their opener against the Bills. He threw for 209 yards and 2 touchdowns while rushing for 70 yards and a touchdown. You could argue that his performance could have been much better had the Bills kept the game more competitive in the first 55 minutes. After blowing a 15-point lead late, the Ravens will look to take some anger out on the Browns at home in Week 2. While Cleveland was able to slow down the Bengals at home last week, their defense isn’t expected to be anything special this season. The Ravens come into this game with the highest team total (28.5) on the slate.

There are a few weeks each season when we have to contemplate rostering a min-salary quarterback. It usually doesn’t happen in Week 2, but here we are. Brock Purdy is unlikely to play this week and is expected to be out for 2 to 5 weeks. We are expecting Mac Jones ($4,000 DK / $6,000 FD) to draw the start for the Niners. While he won’t be playing with some key pieces (Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk), he gets to play indoors against the Saints, who likely have a bottom-5 defense in the NFL. More importantly, he’s playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense and can lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey. He has a path to 20+ fantasy points, which is very enticing at the bare minimum.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

Bills quarterback Allen

Even though the next 3 quarterbacks didn’t make it into my top tier this week, they are all potential difference makers on this slate.

Josh Allen threw for over 250 yards and led the Bills to 3 scores in the final 5 minutes of Sunday night’s game. That game against the Ravens will likely go down as one of the best comebacks of the season. Allen has long been one of the most productive quarterbacks in DFS, but he’s been difficult to stack with ever since Stefon Diggs left. Hopefully, what we saw from Keon Coleman will continue moving forward. A matchup against the Jets might not look great on paper, but 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers just shredded them. More importantly, New York played man coverage on 50% of snaps in Week 1. This will create 1-on-1 opportunities for receivers and running lanes for Allen in Week 2.

Jalen Hurts had no Super Bowl hangover, as he looked great in Week 1 against the Cowboys. Granted, this is a defense that just traded away its best player weeks before the season started, but it was still encouraging to see him put up 24 fantasy points in his season debut. He managed to score 2 rushing touchdowns without the help of the tush push. In Week 2, the Eagles get to square off against the shorthanded Chiefs in Kansas City. This game is projected to be played at a fast pace given what we saw from these 2 offenses in Week 1. The high play volume projection makes both of these offenses strong targets for DFS.

I was extremely high on Drake Maye heading into his sophomore season. He didn’t look good against the Raiders at home in Week 1, but we shouldn’t put too much stock into a single performance of any player. And it’s worth noting that he still put up 17 fantasy points in a bad game. He’s still affordable and now draws an elite matchup against the Dolphins, who let Daniel Jones and the Colts score on every drive. Yes, you read that correctly. Every drive. Maye is affordable and brings rushing upside to the table.

Tier 3 – Sprinkle Plays

Bengals quarterback Burrow

Joe Burrow and the Bengals got off to a sluggish start… again. Even though head coach Zac Taylor made changes to camp and played his starters more in the preseason, they still struggled in their first regular season game. Luckily, the Browns gifted them a win in Week 1. I still have a ton of faith in this offense, and a matchup against the Jaguars at home is one of the best on the slate. Burrow has 3 obvious stacking candidates in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown, which only makes him more appealing for DFS. After only running 49 plays in the opener, this game projects much better on the pace front.

Justin Fields made the Sprinkle Plays list last week. While I didn’t end up getting to him in any of my lineups, I hope a few of you did. He’s one of those players who is always viable in tournaments because he’s capable of running for 100+ yards every week. The best time to target him is when he’s not projecting for much ownership. He’ll be more popular this week, but he certainly won’t be the chalk at quarterback. This week, he draws a home matchup against the Seahawks, who were 27th in EPA allowed per dropback in Week 1.

This might sound backwards, but I actually have more interest in Patrick Mahomes when he is missing some of his key weapons. He’s been such a great game manager over the last few regular seasons, but he hasn’t had to have many ceiling games until the Chiefs got into the playoffs. With the running game struggling, and with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy both out, he’s going to have to put this team on his back. He rushed for 57 yards in the opener and will likely have to drop back a ton against the Eagles. We know Andy Reid will have a great game plan cooked up, especially since Kansas City gets some extra days to prepare for this game after playing last Friday night.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious