NFL DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections: Week 6 Notes & Advice
Week 6 features only two teams on bye (Green Bay and Pittsburgh), but Sunday’s 11-game main slate is lacking in terms of high-end QBs. Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a win on Thursday night, while Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert are playing in various primetime and/or London-based contests this week.
Being able to pay down for your QB should make it easier to afford the pricier wideouts and running backs. Sure enough, guys like Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, and Christian McCaffrey are currently projecting for double-digit ownership on DraftKings.
Our RotoGrinders premium DraftKings ownership projections are live and ready for your perusal in LineupHQ. Who are some of the most popular plays heading into Week 6?
NFL DFS Week 6 DraftKings Ownership Projections
Jordan Addison ($5,700) – 19.15% pOWN
Travis Etienne ($7,100) – 19.15% pOWN
D’Andre Swift ($6,100) – 18.28% pOWN
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300) – 18.2% pOWN
Joe Mixon ($6,300) – 17.5% pOWN
Week 6 NFL DFS ownership projections for DraftKings are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for RG Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
DraftKings Ownership Notes
Back to the Bengals?
The Bengals’ offense hasn’t looked particularly menacing for most of the season, but they finally broke through last weekend in the desert. Thanks to a slate-breaking performance from Ja’Marr Chase, Cincy erupted for a season-high 34 points in a 2-touchdown victory over the Cardinals. Chase hauled in 15 of his 19 targets for 192 yards and 3 touchdowns in the most dominant outing we’ve seen from a skill position player all year.
This week, the Bengals are back home to take on the Seahawks. Seattle’s defense hasn’t been as awful so far this year as it was in 2022, but they’re still just 25th in DVOA vs. the pass coming into Week 6. We consistently stacked against this pass defense last season, and I see no reason not to go back to the well with a Cincinnati offense that has hopefully turned a corner.
Interestingly, both Chase and Joe Mixon are coming in as popular plays this week. Chase’s target share is pushing 30% on the year, though the impending return of Tee Higgins makes another 19-target outing rather unlikely. While Chase will be a trendy play, Higgins is only coming in with about 3% pOWN on DK as of Friday afternoon.
Mixon’s next good game this season will be his first, but you can’t argue with the volume. He’s still routinely logging about 80% of the Bengals’ snaps in the backfield. Cincinnati has 106 rushing attempts as a team this season, and Mixon has accounted for 84 (79%) of them. He tallied season-highs in both attempts (25) and rushing yards (81) last Sunday in Glendale.
As usual, the $6,000 range on DraftKings is rife with playable options at running back. Mixon, D’Andre Swift, Raheem Mostert, and Kyren Williams stand out, while Breece Hall should also gain some steam after his big outing last week in Denver.
Jordan Addison Chalk Week?
The Vikings put Justin Jefferson on IR with his hamstring injury, so it’ll be next man up for the Minnesota offense this week in Chicago. The team drafted Jordan Addison in the first round as its Adam Thielen replacement, and it’s fair to assume the USC product will see an uptick in usage with Jefferson on the shelf.
Addison’s target share so far this season is a shade south of 14%, while Jefferson’s is north of 31%. It’s unfair to expect the rookie to suddenly step into Jefferson’s role, but he’s affordable ($5,700), and talented, and this is an exploitable spot. Chicago is just 31st in the league in DVOA against the pass, and Minnesota is only favored by a field goal on the road here.
Both Addison and KJ Osborn ($4,400) are projected for double-digit ownership on DK. Both wideouts drew 9 targets from Kirk Cousins last week against KC, but we can also expect a heavy dosage of TJ Hockenson ($6,600) in this undermanned passing attack.
In tournaments, I’ll get some exposure to Cousins ($7,100) as the natural stacking partner with his popular targets. As we saw last week with the Lions, sometimes the QB goes curiously overlooked despite his pass-catchers catching ownership.
Can We Trust Swift?
The unbeaten Eagles will face a test on the road against the Jets in Week 6. New York ranks around the middle of the pack in both tDVOA and rDVOA. Philly’s 24-point implied team total is a little south of where we usually see them, but it’s still one of the higher marks of the Sunday slate.
D’Andre Swift got a chance to seize the Eagles’ starting running back job with Kenneth Gainwell sidelined by a concussion in Week 2, and he hasn’t looked back since. After logging a paltry 29% of the snaps in Week 1, Swift has played at least 60% of the snaps in 3 of the last 4. Gainwell’s work has been sparing, while Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny aren’t even in the picture.
Swift has at least 14 carries in each game since Week 2. His 8.8% target share doesn’t jump off the page, but he does have 10 targets over the last 2 games combined.
Swift is a fine play, but does he deserve to be chalk at a position rife with other options? Mixon and Kyren Williams are both playing bigger roles in their respective offenses, and Swift also has a questionable floor with Jalen Hurts there to vulture short-yardage TDs.
In an otherwise chalky build, pivoting away from Swift at a position with plenty of alternatives makes sense in GPPs.
Jags SZN?
The Jaguars pulled off an upset win over the Bills last week in London, and this week they’re back on this side of the Atlantic for a home date with the Colts. Jacksonville is a 4.5-point favorite with a 24.5 implied team total against Indy, and this team is looking quite popular on DK.
All of Travis Etienne, Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, and Christian Kirk are projected to pull at least 10% ownership, while Evan Engram isn’t far off the pace (8%). It’s a little curious against a Colts defense that ranks smack-dab in the middle of the league in DVOA (16th). There are also winds of around 10 mph in this one with an outside shot at some rain, per Roth’s weather report.
This offense also hasn’t been particularly explosive this year. Etienne had a monster game last week, but he’s not necessarily cheap at $7,100. Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara, and Bijan Robinson are all in the same range, yet none are projected to be quite as popular. Bijan isn’t even projecting for half of Etienne’s pOWN.
This is another situation in which the projected ownership doesn’t really make a lot of sense. If the Jaguars are going to be a popular stack, coming in under the field isn’t a bad route for GPPs.