NFL DFS Stack Spotlight: Week 6
Stacking is an essential part of NFL DFS. Each week it is important that we identify the best available correlations and apply them carefully to our DFS lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer has a stacking feature we can use to locate high quality options each week, and we’ll use it now to discuss three of the top options from our projections. We can then compare that to the projected ownership to help make our decisions for daily fantasy football.
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Week 6 certainly has some appealing options, so let’s get right to it!
Week 6 NFL DFS Stacks Report
Green Bay Packers
Top Players to Stack: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams
Projected Fantasy Points: 36.11 FanDuel/Yahoo, 41.14 DraftKings
Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Top Bring Backs: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
Expected Ownership: low-to-mid
My very first thought when looking at this Packers combination is that I love how low the Projected Ownership is. At the time I am writing this, the duo is at 10.1% on FD and 7.85% on DK. And yet, this is the highest projected QB + WR/TE in our projections!
Now obviously, salary factors into the equation here. Rodgers is the second most expensive quarterback on the slate, and Adams is the most expensive wide receiver. But it’s not like they are difficult to fit on any site with the abundance of solid mid tier options at both running back and wide receiver.
Yes, the matchup against Tampa Bay is difficult, but that is already baked into the projections. What I see here is a duo that has one of the higher ceilings on the slate but isn’t coming close to sniffing high ownership. That sounds ideal for tournament formats.
Minnesota Vikings
Top Players to Stack: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Alexander Mattison
Projected Fantasy Points: 53.92 FanDuel/Yahoo, 61.1 DraftKings
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Top Bring Backs: Calvin Ridley
Expected Ownership: high
This trio of Vikings has the second highest projected fantasy points in our projections for Week 6 amongst any combination of QB + two RB/WR/TE. And when we factor in depressed price tags on the two skill position players (Thielen and Mattison), it makes sense why our Projected Ownership has them so high. For example, we are seeing Mattison projected to be the highest owned running back on the slate and Thielen up near the top (and actually at the top on FD) at the wide receiver position.
The reason for their gaudy projections is largely about opportunity and matchup (ya know, like it usually is). Thielen has been an absolute target hog for this Vikings team, and then Mattison racked up 23 touches after Dalvin Cook went down last week. They get to face a Falcons team that ranks 30th in Pass Defense DVOA, while also giving up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing running backs and seventh most to wide receivers.
If you do want to eat some Thielen and Mattison chalk in a few lineups, it appears that Cousins could be the differentiator for you. Our current run of Projected Ownership has him as just the 11th highest owned quarterback on FD and 8th highest on DK. A 29+ implied team total and decent involvement for Mattison in the passing game (12% projected market share of targets) leaves me not shy at all about stacking up all three of them together.
Detroit Lions
Top Players to Stack: Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay
Projected Fantasy Points: 33.93 FanDuel/Yahoo, 38.86 DraftKings
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Top Bring Backs: James Robinson
Expected Ownership: mid-to-high
Stafford has been locked in on Golladay in the two games he (Golladay) has played. Over the course of those two games (Week 3 at Arizona; Week 4 versus New Orleans), Golladay has racked up a team-leading 15 targets (roughly 25% of the market share; T.J. Hockenson is second in that span with 11 targets), 10 receptions, 119 yards, and two touchdowns.
This Sunday, these two get to take on a Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in Pass Defense DVOA. Only one team (the Falcons) has allowed more fantasy points this season to opposing quarterbacks, and it’s not like they are standouts against wide receivers either (13th most).
I am predicting that Golladay torches the Jaguars defense in Week 6, going for more yards in this game than he has in his other two games combined. If he is able to find the end zone for a third consecutive game too, he could wind up being a slate-breaker.
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