NFL DraftKings Lineup Walkthrough - Week 4
After what was one of the highest scoring weeks that I can remember in weekly fantasy football, the scores were back to normal in Week 4. There were some popular value plays that had subpar outings, which really brought the overall scores down. I still have one game to sweat on Monday night, but outside of the Seahawks’ defense, there shouldn’t be a ton of exposure to this game.
The goal of this article is to focus on the process behind each pick selection, rather than their actual fantasy output. So without further adieu, let’s break down my main cash game lineup on DraftKings this week.
Tyrod Taylor
Heading into the week, I was very high on the Buffalo Bills offense. They drew a nice matchup at home against the Giants and they were favored to 25.75 points. With Taylor’s mobility, I expected him to carve up this Giants’ defense that had the worst pass rushing grade in the NFL in the first three weeks of the season. Taylor ended up having a mediocre fantasy outing (15.46 fantasy points), but two of his touchdowns were called back, both of which were 20+ yards. It was a day of what could have been for the penalty-plagued Bills’ offense.
Devonta Freeman
Freeman was listed as questionable throughout the week, but once he was listed with the probable tag on Saturday, he became a lock for my cash game lineup. With Tevin Coleman out, Freeman saw 35 touches in Week 3 against the Cowboys. In a home game where the Falcons were big favorites, I was expecting another workhorse-like performance from Freeman. He was a huge difference maker once again, as he finished with 149 yards from scrimmage and three more touchdowns. It’s hard to predict touchdowns in the NFL, but we can predict opportunity.
Karlos Williams
Williams was the free square this week in cash games. Many thought of him as a must play in tournaments too. He was listed at a bargain-bin price of only $3,400 and LeSean McCoy was ruled out early in the week. This pick was a no-brainer and it really didn’t make any sense to fade him in cash games, as you were likely just letting your team fall behind the rest of the field. Williams wasn’t effective running the ball, but he did end up with 70 yards from scrimmage, including a nice touchdown catch from Tyrod Taylor.
Randall Cobb
Cobb was another player that I had marked down as a must start in cash games. Salaries for Week 4 on DraftKings were released prior to the Packers’ Monday night game against the Chiefs, so Cobb’s three touchdowns in Week 3 had no impact on his salary for Week 4. At $7,300, he was one of the best values on the board, as he was taking on a 49ers’ defense that was graded near the bottom of the league in every important statistic — DvP, PFF grade, and DVOA. Cobb got off to a quick start, but he aggravated his shoulder injury and never looked the same after that. Performances like this are why we want to trust the process over the results.
Amari Cooper
Cooper was another player that I liked all week and nothing changed as we got closer to Sunday morning. The Raiders’ offense has made great strides this season and they were taking on a Bears’ defense that was ranked near the bottom of the league in both pass and rush defense. Cooper had been targeted on 14.5% of the Raiders’ snaps through the first three weeks, which was the eighth-highest target rate of any receiver in the Sunday/Monday slate. I was expecting 8-12 quality targets against a bad defense, which was more than enough justification at a price of $6,300.
Demaryius Thomas
Thomas is one of those players that gets overlooked on a weekly basis. He is one of the best receivers in the entire NFL, yet he is typically on 10-20% owned in cash games and tournaments. I wanted to take Julio Jones here, but I liked my team a bit more taking the discount with Thomas. He was coming off of a big performance against the Lions in Week 3 and he had a nice cornerback matchup against Xavier Rhodes. He fell just short of reaching the 100-yard bonus, but he still outperformed Julio, so I was more than willing to take that trade.
Charles Clay
The general rule of thumb is to avoid taking a quarterback and a running back from the same team because they are both fighting for the same production (unless of course he is a pass-catching RB). It’s also recommended to avoid taking a quarterback with one of his wideouts in cash games, because their production is highly correlated and it increases the overall risk in your lineup. However, it’s important to understand that pricing dictates everything in DFS. In this case, I was able to take the Bills’ starting QB, RB, and TE for a combined cost of only $12,500.
I generally don’t use a 3x-salary value system when building lineups, but if that was my goal, I would have only needed 37.5 fantasy points combined from all three players against a bad Giants’ defense. The Bills’ offense sputtered for basically the entire game, yet the three still managed to combine for 54 fantasy points. We often get caught up in these rules that we are supposed to follow when building lineups, but we should keep in mind that pricing dictates everything in DFS.
Matt Forte
I was on the fence with Forte all week. He had a favorable matchup against the Raiders and while I generally like to target running backs that are favored, Forte is one of the few backs that aren’t dependent on game script. He is one of the true workhorse backs in the NFL and he is a big part of the Bears’ passing attack. Once it was announced that Jay Cutler was active, I immediately gave a boost to Forte, as this offense is much more dynamic with Cutler at the helm. Forte didn’t find the endzone, but he still finished with 18.5 fantasy points.
Cardinals D/ST
When it comes to selecting a defense, I usually don’t like to force the issue. I like to narrow down my list of options to two or three teams and then use whichever defense fits my lineup on each site. As you will remember from last week, I like to target defenses that are playing at home, that are big favorites, and that can get to the quarterback. With such criteria, I narrowed down my list of options to the Seahawks, Broncos, and Cardinals. Since I already had the Broncos on FanDuel and I couldn’t get the Seahawks to fit in my lineup, I ended up with the Cardinals.