NFL DraftKings Lineup Walkthrough - Week 7
I’m getting my lineup walkthrough out a little early this week, because, in a few short hours, I am headed to the hospital with my wife to have our first baby. Most of the advice that I’ve from people heard has been either, “make sure to get sleep before the baby comes,” or “make sure you don’t look when she is pushing.” I’ve tried to get as much sleep as possible and I don’t think I will have any problems keeping my eyes focused on either the doctor or my wife. I’m not sure why I’ve put this into my article this week, but hey, I’m excited and I had to share the good news.
As I am writing this, the afternoon games aren’t even to halftime yet, but I can safely say that it is shaping up to be a very high scoring week. I generally try to spend as much of my salary cap as I can – for my cash game lineup anyway, but I had a hard time doing that this week on DraftKings. The lineup that I ended up with left $600 on the table. No matter how hard I tried, I couldn’t come up with a lineup that I liked more by using the $600. I could have easily upgraded my defense, but I really like the spot for the Rams. It just goes to show that you shouldn’t always force yourself to use the entire salary cap. If it’s not a move that makes your lineup better, then don’t hesitate to leave a little money on the table.
Week 7 DraftKings Lineup
I wrote about two quarterbacks in my article this week – Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer. I wanted to have exposure to both, so I used Luck on DraftKings and Palmer on FanDuel. Luck has gotten off to a very slow start this season, but he was facing the league’s worst pass defense at home. The Colts had one of the highest team totals on the board and I expected them to move the ball up and down the field. After the first half, I was a little worried. Luckily, they were forced to air it out and Luck ended up having a very nice fantasy outing.
In my Thursday contests on FanDuel, I faded Devonta Freeman for Todd Gurley and Lamar Miller. My thought process was that he was going to experience negative touchdown regression eventually and I loved the spots for both Gurley and Miller. However, after seeing his ownership once the Thursday contests locked, I knew that I had to get exposure to him in the Sunday-Monday slate. Luckily, DraftKings allows you to roster up to three running backs with the use of the flex. Freeman had a nice day on the ground against the Titans, but the Falcons failed to give him the ball in short-yardage situations and he failed to find the end zone.
I wrote in my article this week that you should take Todd Gurley in cash games and tournaments. Even though his ownership level was going to be astronomically high, his price and matchup were just too good to pass up. The Browns have one of the worst run defenses in the entire NFL and the Rams have made an effort to give Gurley all of the touches that he can handle. You will often hear experts say, “don’t be contrarian just to be contrarian.” This is a perfect example of why you shouldn’t fade a great play just because he may have a high ownership level.
I knew this would be the week that DeAndre Hopkins would struggle. I absolutely knew it. I have yet to roster him in my cash games this season (pivoted away from him with the high wind last week), but with all of the value at running back, I had to spend up somewhere. I didn’t mind the matchup against the Dolphins – even with the potential shadowing from Brent Grimes. I was expecting him to get peppered with targets once again. While he did have 12 balls thrown his way, he was only able to haul in six of them for 50 yards.
I don’t always pair my quarterback with one of his receivers in cash games, but I was very confident in the matchup for both players, so I decided to pair them. T.Y. Hilton was expected to have the tougher matchup of the two Colts’ receivers. While Delvin Breaux did end up covering Hilton for most of the game, Hilton got the best of him on two long touchdown receptions. Moncrief was pretty quiet for most of the game, but he came through with a big touchdown on the Colts final drive. Moncrief also made a big play on the onside kick, batting the ball back in bounds, but the Colts were unable to get possession.
This is the one selection that I went back and forth on. I was tempted to use that extra $600 on either Jamison Crowder or Danny Amendola, but I felt that Michael Floyd floor and upside combination was higher than the other two players. Obviously, Amendola finished with a big game against the Jets, but hindsight is 20/20. We will see how Floyd fares on Monday night against the Ravens, who haven’t been able to cover anyone in the passing game this season. He is a deep threat facing a beatable secondary. Hopefully, he can connect with Palmer on a long pass or two.
I originally had Delanie Walker at tight end, but there were a couple of injury updates Sunday morning that made me pivot off of him. Jeremy Maclin was ruled out, which gave a nice boost to Travis Kelce and then it sounded like Antonio Gates was going to be out, which gave a nice boost to Ladarius Green. I was debating between the two and I eventually decided on Kelce because I couldn’t do a whole lot with the extra $2,000. I’m glad that I stuck with Kelce, because that $2,000 would have likely been used to upgrade Lamar Miller.
Lamar Miller was one of my favorite plays of the week. I wrote him up in my column and I had him listed as one of the best dollar for dollar plays in the expert consensus rankings. The talent has always been there with Miller, he just hasn’t had the opportunity to produce like a workhorse back. With a new coach in Miami, they made it a point to get the ball to Miller last week and I was expecting more of the same this week against the Texans. He had one of the biggest first halves in recent memory, but the Dolphins were up by 41 at the half, so they were content giving him the rest of the game off.
Rams D/ST
There were a lot of chalk plays this week, one of which was the Rams defense. They are a much more talented defense than the first six weeks of the season would lead you to believe and in a home matchup against the Browns, this was a no-brainer. Plus, they were one of the cheapest defenses on the schedule.