NFL Grind Down: Week 12 Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
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| Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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Tennessee Titans
Update 11-24-18 – Mariota returned to practice on Friday and Saturday, and is a full go after being removed from the injury report. Taywan Taylor is questionable with a foot injury.
Notable injuries and suspensions: Taylor (Questionable – Foot)
Quarterback: If you’re into ugly Monday night games, you’re in luck. The Titans enter with a 17.75 implied team total, and that total may plummet if Marcus Mariota gets ruled out and the team is forced to start Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert did go a respectable 11/16 with 118 yards, one touchdown and one interception in relief of Mariota last week, but this would be a massive downgrade. This Houston defense is no joke, and even if Mariota were able to make it back for this game, we’ve seen Mariota play through injuries this season and he was ineffective. Monitor this situation, but at this point I’m more likely to grab exposure to the Texans defense than a Titans quarterback.
Running Backs: I suppose if Gabbert gets the start, the Titans may try to run the ball more with Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry in order to avoid Gabbert having to make plays. The problem is that the Texans have an elite run defense. My outlook on Lewis would be rosier if Mariota is able to play, and perhaps the Titans form a game plan that allow Mariota to make quick checkdowns to avoid a re-injury. Henry is a touchdown-or-bust option at this point and not someone I’d want much exposure to with Lewis taking over this backfield committee lately.
Pass Catchers: Corey Davis found no success with Gabbert under center, seeing just four targets last week. Meanwhile Gabbert relied on Jonnu Smith, who saw a team-high eight targets. Tajae Sharpe also showed signs of life with a garbage time touchdown. I suppose Smith, Sharpe and Davis may see targets to be interesting in what sets up to be a negative game script for the Titans, but banking on any of them with Gabbert as your quarterback feels icky.
The Takeaway: Stay tuned on who starts at quarterback for the Titans, but a banged up Mariota may not be much better than a healthy Gabbert. It’s likely best to stay away from this situation.
Houston Texans
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
Quarterback: The Texans enter on a seven game winning streak and should have plenty of success here against the Titans. The Texans continue to limit the passing volume for Deshaun Watson, who has dealt with a bunch of injuries this season. Watson has now thrown for 25 or fewer passing attempts in five straight games, and he has a 10:4 touchdown to interception ratio during that time. It’s also likely that the Texans on this winning streak don’t have a need to air it out since they’ve been playing with a lead, a situation that seems likely here as well if Mariota can’t go. The Titans have struggled against the pass this season, so it seems likely that Watson has success here.
Running Backs: Lamar Miller saw 20 carries last week and now has 18 or more carries in three of his last four games. He continues to operate ahead of Alfred Blue as the lead back and could see another solid workload in this game if Vegas is correct in this being a positive game script for the Texans. I hate rostering Lamar Miller, especially against a stout Titans run defense, but the carries should be there if you want to chase it. You really would need a rushing touchdown to smash value, however, since Miller isn’t much of a factor in the passing game.
Pass Catchers: Deandre Hopkins started last week hot with a touchdown but finished a quiet 5-56-1 on just six targets. It seems like Josh Normal ultimately did a good job containing Hopkins, but the Titans secondary is a much easier matchup for Hopkins to win. I’m expecting a big bounceback here. Keke Coutee returned and led the team with nine targets, while Demaryius Thomas played on 73% of the snaps but didn’t have a catch. The coaching staff came out after the game to acknowledge they need to do a better job of getting Thomas the ball, so I would expect them to make an effort to get him more involved this week. Still, he’s a hard sell in an offense that isn’t passing much and when it does, it prioritizes Hopkins.
The Takeaway: Deandre Hopkins is my primary target for the Texans, while Lamar Miller is somewhat interesting if you want to chase the rushing attempts and a touchdown. Deshaun Watson continues to produce in limited passing volume, making him a tournament only play.