NFL Grind Down: Week 2 - Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
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| Seattle Seahawks | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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Seattle Seahawks
Notable injuries and suspensions: Doug Baldwin (Out – Partial MCL Tear)
Quarterback: Russell Wilson is going to have to carry this team on his back. While that may be good from a fantasy perspective, he’s working with an offensive line that continues to crumble and several receivers who would likely be backups on other teams. In Week 1 against the Broncos, he finished 19/33 with 298 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He now has to work with a receiving corp that’s missing Doug Baldwin, who is out with a partial MCL tear. On a Showdown slate it makes sense to get exposure to Wilson because he’s going to be forced to do it all with his arm and his legs, but there are genuine concerns about the talent he’s working with.
Running Backs: Despite being the “starter,” Chris Carson only saw seven carries for 51 yards. Backup rookie Rashaad Penny also had seven carries for just eight yards. Both saw five targets and it’s possible Carson’s low total was also partially due to the fact he lost a fumble and perhaps he was being punished for it. It’s troubling they saw an equal amount of carries and targets in Week 1, but Coach Pete Carroll did make some comments this week that he felt Penny looked rusty so I give Carson the edge if deciding between these two players.
Pass Catchers: Doug Baldwin played through his knee injury for the first half but left the game after halftime. In his absence, Tyler Lockett (3-59-1), Brandon Marshall (3-46-1) and rookie Will Disley (3-105-1) stepped up and combined for three touchdowns. Let’s see how target share was distributed in Week 1:
I never would’ve expected that Brandon Marshall would lead his team in target share in the year 2018, but here we are. I still prefer Tyler Lockett out of this bunch just based on talent and his experience working with Wilson, but Wilson isn’t going to have the time to be picky with which receiver he throws to when he’s being flushed out of the pocket so often. The big surprise was Will Dissly, who came out of nowhere. Dissly is a rookie and profiled more as a blocking tight end, but his 66-yard touchdown put him on the radar for DFS purposes this week. I have no idea if he can replicate his success in Week 2 or whether his long touchdown was a fluke, but I won’t dismiss it just yet considering Wilson has nobody else to throw to.
The Takeaway: Russell Wilson is a fine play in a Showdown format, while Chris Carson sounds like he’ll lead the backfield this week. I still prefer Tyler Lockett out of all the pass catchers, but I suppose we need to consider Brandon Marshall and Will Dissly given the state of how thin this receiving corp is.
Chicago Bears
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
Quarterback: Mitchell Trubisky started off hot with a two-yard touchdown run against the Packers and nearly pulled off an upset, but the Bears ultimately fell short to Aaron Rodgers’ heroics. Outside of that rushing touchdown, Trubisky didn’t do much else. He finished 23/35 for just 171 yards. I know this Seahawks defense isn’t what it used to be and we should be attacking it, but I have a hard time endorsing Trubisky.
Running Backs: Jordan Howard played on 50 of the team’s 70 offensive snaps, while backup running back Tarik Cohen was only on the field for 28 snaps. Additionally, Howard out-carried Cohen 15 to 5 and even had more receptions (5 to 3). There appears to be a very strong focus to give Howard as much as he can handle while Cohen is going to act as a change-of-pace back. This is a bit disappointing considering I really expected Cohen to play a bigger role in this offense. Howard is the main Bears player I have interest in given his expected workload moving forward.
Pass Catchers: Allen Robinson was on the field for 97% of the team’s snaps, which is a great sign that he’s healthy and ready to be the team’s #1 receiver. He led the team in targets (7) and receiving yards (61), while appearing to be Trubisky’s top receiver. If you decide to roll out Trubisky, stacking him with Robinson makes some sense given the connection they showed in Week 1. After Robinson, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel were on the field for 87% and 86% of the snaps, respectively. It signals to me that Gabriel is being viewed as the team’s #2 receiver. Burton only caught one of his six targets and was a disappointment after his strong preseason, but this is a prime bounceback spot for Burton.
The Takeaway: Jordan Howard is my main target on the Bears, while Allen Robinson is the clear #1 receiver for the team. Mitchell Trubisky isn’t someone I’d actively want to target, but his rushing upside is appealing and we just saw the Broncos gash this Seattle defense for 329 passing yards and three touchdowns. I do think Trey Burton has a bounceback game, and Taylor Gabriel is a wildcard GPP dart throw considering he’s going to see plenty of time on the field operating as the team’s starter opposite Robinson.