NFL Grind Down: Week 3 TNF Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Washington Redskins at New York Giants
| Washington Redskins | New York Giants | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.0 | 28 | 30 | 1 | Offense | 23.0 | 16 | 16 | 19 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.5 | 19 | 32 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 13.5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Giants | 26 | 27 | 18 | 30 | Washington Redskins | 3 | 1 | 13 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Beckham Jr. | 20 | 12 | 1 | 190 | |
| Garcon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 97 | Cruz | |||||
| Roberts | 5 | 4 | 0 | 36 | Randle | 7 | 4 | 0 | 28 | |
| Reed | 17 | 13 | 1 | 145 | Donnell | 10 | 7 | 1 | 49 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeSean Jackson (WAS, Hamstring, Out), Victor Cruz (NYG, Calf, Out)
WAS Matchup Rating: 4.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 6.0
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: So far this season, Kirk Cousins (FD $6,200, DK $5,500) has been more accurate than I would have expected. According to Pro Football Focus, Cousins ranks 11th in accuracy (which takes dropped passes, spikes, throw aways and “hit as thrown” passes out of the equation) up four spots and 3% over last season. This accuracy does wonders to bring his receivers into play for daily fantasy, but I’m still not looking to invest in Cousins himself. There’s not a lot of upside in a quarterback whose team is winning with a surprisingly good defense and two-headed running game. The Giants are a favorable matchup for quarterbacks, but not favorable enough for me to roster this quarterback.
Running Game: Washington leads the NFL in rushing yards. Yes, you read that correctly. Alfred Morris (FD $6,600, DK $4,700) and Matt Jones (FD $6,400, DK $4,000) have combined to shrug off the notion that Jay Gruden’s team needs Robert Griffin III in the game to run the ball effectively, picking up big chunks of yards and chewing up the clock with great efficiency. Washington has been a very slow team in terms of pace since the start of last year, ranking 29th in seconds per play in the league. Combine that with a timeshare at running back, and it’s really, really hard to get excited about investing daily fantasy salary here. Jones would have been appealing had his salary been at “unproven third-round rookie” levels, but now that it’s approaching “middle of the road timeshare running back” status, there’s no value. Jones’ point per opportunity numbers are through the roof at the moment, and he’s the tournament play you want if you’re grabbing a player from this backfield, but the floor is low as a road underdog.
Pass Catchers: If you’re compelled to play Thursday lock contests, Odell Beckham is the most talented player available, but I don’t think any player is as good of a daily fantasy option as Jordan Reed (FD $5,300, DK $3,800). Reed has 13 catches on 17 targets to begin the season, which both rank second at the tight end position. With DeSean Jackson still out, Reed and Pierre Garcon (FD $5,900, DK $5,200) will dominate the targets in this offense. Reed has two of his team’s seven red zone targets so far this season (Garcon has one of the other five), and both players will face a defense that ranks fifth in points allowed to tight ends since the start of last year, and that is missing its top cover corner, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Garcon will still see some of the talented Prince Amukamura, so Reed is my preferred play between the two. Ryan Grant (FD $4,600, DK $3,000) earns a mention as the receiver likely to see the less imposing cover corners for New York, and he’s also seen two red zone targets this year. He’s a deep tournament sleeper.
The Takeaway: Jordan Reed is a core play, and Pierre Garcon and Ryan Grant are tournament fliers at the receiver position. Kirk Cousins lacks upside but is very cheap, and the running back situation is tough to read, but Matt Jones appears to be the better fantasy option.
New York Giants
Quarterback: Washington was absolutely terrible against the pass last year, ranking worst in virtually every ranking I consider. But they’ve started off strong this year, leaving plenty of uncertainty about where they actually stand among the teams to target and fade as defensive opponents for a passing game. The Giants are home favorites and Eli Manning (FD $8,000, DK $7,000) does have one of the best weapons in football at his disposal, but the likely absence of left tackle Ereck Flowers combined with a pretty good Washington pass rush has me passing on the Giants QB. So far this season, PFF has noted that Manning completes nearly 70% of his passes and picks up 7.0 yards per attempt while not under pressure, but those numbers drop to 42.1% and 4.3 yards per attempt when under pressure. These numbers are consistent with last season for Manning, who does not shine when under fire from an opposing pass rush. The price isn’t right for such a tough spot for Manning, even if he is quarterbacking the favored team.
Running Game: Could this situation be any less appealing from a fantasy perspective? Rashad Jennings (FD $6,200, DK $4,700) is the “lead back” but doesn’t play on passing downs hardly at all. That role goes to Shane Vereen (FD $6,100, DK $4,300), who is never called upon in the running game. And then there’s Andre Williams (FD $5,400, DK $3,200), who steals carries from Jennings. Washington was good against the run a year ago, and have started off just as good this season (rank ninth in DVOA against the run, have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the position since the start of last year). Avoid this situation completely, and yes, that includes Vereen on PPR sites. Washington ranks third in defending running backs in the passing game, according to Football Outsiders DVOA.
Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham Jr. (FD $9,100, DK $9,000) is good. Odell Beckham Jr. is going to get targets. It’s highly unlikely there will be a week this season when OBJ is not in play. Otherwise? There’s nothing of interest in this injured, talentless receiving corps. I would love to recommend Rueben Randle (FD $5,400, DK $4,000) but he can’t find a way into the spotlight even with the injuries and roster moves taking place around him, and his inevitable breakout will come when we least expect it. Larry Donnell (FD $5,400, DK $3,100) isn’t consistent enough to consider when Jordan Reed is the same price with a much higher floor.
The Takeaway: The running game isn’t worth your time, and Eli Manning isn’t in a great spot against a surprisingly good defense. Odell Beckham Jr. is really the only player you should consider, and even then, I recommend playing this Thursday night slate to either fade it completely, or to roster Reed as a cheap option at tight end to build a stacked weekend lineup.
If you have any questions about the weekend slate for Thursday lock lineups, ask them in the comment section below!