NFL Grind Down: Week 7 - Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
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| New York Giants | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
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New York Giants
Notable injuries and suspensions: Engram (Probable – Knee)
Quarterback: Eli Manning looked exactly like what a 37-year old playing past his prime would look like in Week 6 against the Eagles. Manning completed just 24/43 passes for 281 yards and an interception. He has a poor offensive line and shouldn’t be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Still, there is a silver lining for Manning this week. He’s likely getting back Evan Engram from his knee injury, and the Giants face one of the worst defenses in the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons rank 29th in pass DVOA and 31st in run DVOA, so this is a spot where Manning in theory could have some success in. Despite the nice matchup, I don’t think I could get myself to roster Eli Manning.
Running Backs: Saquon Barkley continues to amaze despite the poor talent surrounding him. He turned 13 carries into 130 yards and a touchdown, while still managing to catch nine of his team-high 12 targets for 99 yards. It’s simply amazing what he’s doing with Eli Manning as his quarterback. He now gets a juicy matchup against the Falcons defense that continues to get gashed over and over. Adam Levitan summed it up best in this tweet:
Ah, I know what you’re saying to yourself now: “Allan, those are elite running backs, of course they will destroy the Falcons!” Well, Adam followed it up with one more tweet:
Yes, even the great Peyton Barber destroyed the Falcons. I cannot imagine what Barkley will do in this spot, but it should be very, very good.
Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham couldn’t do anything with his 10 targets, turning that into just a 6-44-0 line. Beckham left the field before halftime and was clearly not happy. Maybe we have a squeaky wheel narrative (again) with Beckham where the team tries to force-feed him the ball. It worked a few weeks ago when he went off for two touchdowns, maybe it’ll happen again. The Falcons are so poor defensively that this could be a spot the Giants exploit, if Eli Manning can effectively get him the ball.
With Evan Engram looking like he’s going to play, the Giants get some reinforcements. Engram returning would hurt Sterling Shepard’s outlook and make Shepard more of a fringe secondary play. Engram is an enticing option in a Showdown format assuming he’s back with no restrictions. The Falcons just let O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate score last week, so this is an exploitable matchup for Engram.
The Takeaway: Saquon Barkley should smash in this spot against a Falcons defense that struggles with pass-catching backs. The Falcons’ secondary is also a mess, and a frustrated Odell Beckham could see some volume here to keep him happy. Both are elite options this week. I can’t get myself to play Eli Manning, but I get it if you do. I’d rather just play the options around him. If he’s back, Evan Engram would make an interesting play on a Showdown slate given hoe the Falcons have struggled against the pass.
Atlanta Falcons
Notable injuries and suspensions: Freeman (Out – Groin), Ridley (Questionable – Ankle), Sanu (Hip – Questionable)
Quarterback: Matt Ryan has collected at least three touchdowns in four of his six games this season and is playing at an elite level right now. The Giants rank 27th in pass DVOA so he should be able to carve them up. My one hesitation with Ryan as of Thursday night / Friday morning is that his receiving corp is banged up. Both Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu are dealing with injuries and missed practice on Thursday. I’m monitoring their statuses on Friday and this weekend to see if they can suit up. I’d still like Ryan in this spot regardless of Ridley’s and Sanu’s statuses, but I would be willing to downgrade Ryan a notch if one or both were out.
Running Backs: Devonta Freeman will be out for awhile with his groin injury, meaning Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith will handle running back duties. While Coleman out-snapped Smith 38 to 31, Smith out-carried Coleman 11 to 10 and also found the end zone for a rushing touchdown. We’ve basically come to a point where Coleman only has a narrow 55/45 split over Ito. In other words, this has almost become an even timeshare. Coleman did catch a six-yard touchdown, but the timeshare takes me off either back on a full slate. On a Showdown slate, both backs are viable options.
Pass Catchers: Julio Jones saw a team-high 14 passes and turned that into a 10-144-0 line, but still couldn’t find the end zone for the sixth straight game. The targets and volume continue to be there, but he’s just unable to find the end zone. Should Ridley and/or Sanu miss this game, we have to think Jones’ chances of finding paydirt will increase significantly as that would remove another end zone target. Austin Hooper would also benefit from their absences, as he saw 10 targets last week and had a 9-71-1 line. He played on 81% of the team’s snaps in Week 6 and could continue seeing a boatload of targets here.
The Takeaway: Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are fantastic options here. We’ll need to monitor the statuses of Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu. I’m fine with both of them in tournaments if they play with no restrictions. If one or both are out, Austin Hooper would see a big bump in usage. I’m not a fan of the run game here as it appears Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith are close to a 55/45 split.