NFL Grind Down: Week 9, Thursday Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
| Cleveland Browns | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | Paul Brown Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 45.5 | 17.25 | -11 | 45.5 | 28.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.9 | 25 | 7 | 29 | Offense | 28.3 | 3 | 12 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.9 | 7 | 23 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 27.0 | 26 | 19 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 20 | 10 | 20 | Cleveland Browns | 18 | 27 | 19 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 65 | 38 | 4 | 601 | Green | 67 | 46 | 4 | 649 | |
| Hawkins | 35 | 20 | 0 | 207 | Sanu | 27 | 18 | 0 | 284 | |
| Hartline | 35 | 16 | 2 | 182 | Jones | 43 | 26 | 3 | 344 | |
| Barnidge | 59 | 40 | 6 | 567 | Eifert | 48 | 32 | 6 | 381 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Josh McCown, Brian Hartline, Andrew Hawkins (CLE, Out)
CLE Matchup Rating: 2.5
CIN Matchup Rating: 7.5
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: Johnny Manziel (FD $6,500, DK $5,000) will get the start under center for the Browns with Josh McCown on the mend from a variety of injuries, most recently an ailment involving his shoulder. Manziel has appeared in four games this season, throwing a total of 50 passes and rushing ten times. There’s not a lot to bank on there, nor is there a lot to go back and look at last season, when he threw 35 passes. Manziel had a big game against the Titans in Week 2 and did alright against a tough New York defense in Week 1, so he’s not on the Ryan Mallet, Blaine Gabbert level of terrible, unusable quarterback. I just don’t think he’s going to run all that often, if his appearances so far are any indication, which removes the main selling point for the Texas A&M product. He faces a defense that ranks 11th in the league against the pass according to DVOA, and that has generated 12 turnovers in seven games. This isn’t an appealing enough matchup for Manziel the passer, the volume isn’t there for Manziel the runner, and the line for this game screams to stay away from the Cleveland offense. Manziel won’t be contrarian, as people will flock to Thursday start contests to get some exposure to the fun-to-watch signal caller, so he’s not even worth a tournament-only tag.
Running Game: If we could rely on Manziel getting 7-10 carries, he’d be an appealing option from the QB spot due to the floor and upside generated by rushing passers. But we’ll be lucky to get that sort of volume out of any player in a Cleveland uniform this weekend, as Isaiah Crowell (FD $5,300, DK $3,400) leads the team in carries over the last three games with a whopping total of 29. Fewer than ten carries per game, with no involvement in the passing game? No thanks. Robert Turbin (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) has carved out his fair share of carries, which makes both Turbin and Crowell unusable in daily fantasy. Duke Johnson (FD $5,900, DK $4,000) would be a player to target in this one if we could trust Manziel to throw him the ball even once. The only time Duke Johnson has touched the ball on a pass play with Manziel under center this season was against the Titans when he fell on a fumble lost by the Browns’ passer. None of these backs are in play.
Pass Catchers: Andrew Hawkins and Brian Hartline won’t play in this contest, taking away the two top targets for Manziel so far this season. Third in line is Travis Benjamin (FD $6,000, DK $5,200), who has emerged as the best all-around receiver for the Browns and will likely see the biggest workload on Thursday night. However, he will see a healthy amount of coverage from Adam Jones, which is less than ideal. Gary Barnidge (FD $6,600, DK $4,800) has only been thrown at five times by Manziel this season, but he’s been on fire recently and will be tough for the dynamic quarterback to ignore. Focus your attention on the Cleveland passing game to those two, as no other player merits serious consideration, especially with Manziel unlikely to throw more than 20-25 times, even if the Browns fall behind.
The Takeaway: The Bengals are a fairly neutral matchup all around, but this Cleveland offense lacks in talent and solid roles for anyone outside of Benjamin and Barnidge. Those two are fine for a tournament lineup or two, but the Browns will be lucky to score 17 points against their in-state rivals, and shouldn’t be seen as strong fantasy options this week.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: Even after last week, when the Browns allowed Carson Palmer to throw for four touchdowns and nearly 400 yards, the fantasy points allowed and advanced stats still tell us to target the Cleveland defense with running backs. Andy Dalton (FD $8,200, DK $6,200) and company will face a defensive unit ranked 19th against the pass according to Football Outsiders, and 29th against the run. The data at numberFire paints a similar picture, as the Browns rank last in run defense, and 21st in pass defense. It’s not a bad matchup for Dalton, and the upside is clearly there. But prior to Palmer’s big game last week, passers had combined for three touchdowns in three weeks against this defense. Dalton slipped a bit in Week 8, but had at least 18 FanDuel points in each of his first six starts this season. He’s a fine cash game play for Thursday-lock contests, but he’s not the top option on the board.
Running Game: Over their last three games, the Bengals have given Jeremy Hill (FD $6,800, DK $5,200) 42 touches, while providing 32 to Giovani Bernard (FD $6,200, DK $4,800). Bernard has 2.6 more yards per carry with his rushing attempts, and is more involved in the passing game as well. But the most concerning number for those looking to roster Hill this week is the red zone usage. Against Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Seattle, the Bengals ran the ball in the red zone 12 times. One of those carries was by Jeremy Hill, while Bernard received eight, picking up 66 yards and a touchdown in the process. On a key fourth-quarter drive with a four-point Steeler advantage last week, Bernard got the carry on first-and-10 from the Pittsburgh 17, and picked up 12 yards. From that point on, Hill had six touches for 13 yards. Bengals’ offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has come out and said positive things about Hill, but I can’t trust the LSU product yet.
This is a very appealing matchup against the terrible Cleveland run defense, which has allowed seven ninety-yard rushers this season, and four forty-yard receivers from the running back position. And as mentioned above, the Browns have poor advanced statistics against the run this year. But I just don’t trust Hill to get the job done, yet I expect him to get a bigger workload than Bernard. That leaves both players in tournament-only situations for me, with a preference toward the likely less popular Bernard.
Pass Catchers: The targets for the Cincy offense this season have been condensed to three players. A.J. Green (FD $8,500, DK $7,600), Tyler Eifert (FD $5,800, DK $5,400) and Marvin Jones (FD $5,200, DK $4,300). Green is a known quantity, as he’s one of the best players in the NFL and is always an option for daily fantasy purposes. Eifert has quickly become one of the more attractive tight end plays, but his volume is a bit too unsteady to trust in cash games against a team the Bengals are likely to blowout. Jones is a player to keep an eye on moving forward, but is like Eifert in that his workload isn’t secure enough for this possible blowout win.
The Takeaway: The Bengals should win this game easily, and will likely score four or five touchdowns, coming via both the air and ground. Figuring out who scores those touchdowns is tough, as the running game is in a great spot to punch in a few scores, but lacks a clear-cut top option. The passing game has been great this season, but may not have to do much. Dalton, Green and Bernard are my favored plays, but Hill, Jones and Eifert are in play for tournaments, as well. But the best option overall is the Bengal defense, as Johnny Manziel is sacked at a higher-than-average rate due to poor pocket presence, and because the Browns average two turnovers per game.