NFL Millionaire Maker Ownership Review: Week 17
Welcome to the Week 17 ownership breakdown of DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker. I analyzed the data of all DFSers who submitted 250+ lineups into the big GPP (pros) and compared them against the field, with the analysis focusing on players that were “make-or-break” options.
With over $5,000 at stake, what key players did the pros hone in on and which ones did they fade? The ownership percentages are displayed as an average between all the top players as well as the peak of a single player’s lineups.
Quarterback
1. Carson Palmer $6,500, 8.16 points (1.3% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 6.5 percent, Peak ownership: 30.0 percent
I feel as though Carson Palmer makes an appearance in every other one of my articles. He’s one of those players this season that you can play regardless of matchup. In Week 10, in Seattle, he put up 363 yards, 3 TD, and 1 INT for 26.32 DK points. He had also filled up the box score in St. Louis, at home versus Cinci, and against Minnesota. Against a Seattle defense that on paper was ranked #6 in pass DVOA, Carson was a still good option to go toe to toe with Russell Wilson in a shootout. Coach Arians had come out days earlier declaring that he would not sit starters as they were still itching to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Michael Floyd was declared as active on Sunday morning and with their wealth of options in the passing game, Carson was going to need to come out launching against a red-hot Seattle offense (averaging 30.75 points/game since the bye) and stifling run defense (#4 rush DVOA; 3.6 YPC).
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick $5,400, 13.44 points (7.6% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 4.5 percent, Peak ownership: 30.4 percent
Fitzpatrick, oddly enough, had been the model of consistency this year. He was a guaranteed lock for 3x points on any given week with constant 4x upside. He had been on an uptrend as of late, averaging 24.6 DK points over his last five games at a paltry salary of $5,400. However, even though the matchup against the Buffalo Bills looked good on paper (#23 pass DVOA), Fitzpatrick had been held in check during their last matchup. Also, Buffalo ranked #31 in rush DVOA and the weather conditions were getting worse as the week wore on. With forecasts of 1-3 inches of snow to fall on Saturday/Sunday due to lake effect, snow showers and wind gusts up to 20 mph during the game, the expectation was that the Jets would jump-start the previously solid Chris Ivory against a Buffalo defense that had not lived up to their preseason hype.
Running Back
1. Darren McFadden $4,900, 18.5 points (12.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 18.7 percent, Peak ownership: 76.4 percent
McFadden has shown flashes of greatness when given the opportunity to be the bell-cow despite only scoring three touchdowns on the season; averaging 103 yards over his last three games despite only seeing an average of 15 carries. The lack of scoring had mainly been the result of injuries to Romo and Dez, which lead to a season of makeshift quarterbacks and the second-lowest scoring average in the league (16.8 points/game). However, against the NFC #4 seed Washington Redskins with nothing to play for in Week 17, the Cowboys were projected to score 21.8 points (five points above their average; 23% increase). Washington had only ranked #18 in pass DVOA and #23 in rush DVOA with their starters in. With their starters most likely taking the second half off, Dallas would most likely be able to stay in the game and run the ball as a four-point favorite.
2. Chris Ivory $4,400, 8.1 points (11.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 17.6 percent, Peak ownership: 54.2 percent
Chris Ivory. Now that’s a name I’ve not heard in a long time. A long time. After starting the season on a four-game heater averaging 20.8 carries for 115 yards and 1 TD per game, Ivory was making the bearded Ryan Fitzgerald look like a mediocre to poor game manager that everyone thought he was. Bilal Powell snaps and pass-game work had been eating into Ivory’s production and he had cooled off a bit mid-season. However, as Powell was declared inactive for this week, Ivory would be benefit from 5.72 targets per game that Powell had been seeing. With the Buffalo defense ranking #31 in rush DVOA and #30 RB receptions DVOA as well as the forecasted snow flurries and gusts of 20 mph winds, the Jets would almost certainly lean harder on their running game. The table had been set for Ivory to produce a big game at a salary of only $4,400.
Wide Receiver
1. Brandon Marshall $7,900, 29.6 points (16.7% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 9.8 percent, Peak ownership: 36.8 percent
As already discussed ad nauseam, the NY Jets vs. Buffalo Bills game was slated to see typical forceful north winter weather. While this may have reduced the pros’ ownership overall versus the field, he was still owned at a near 10% clip due to his ability to light up the scoreboard and keep the Jets rolling on their heater. The Bills had ranked #23 in pass DVOA and were looking to play without Stephon Gilmore (RCB) and Ronald Darby (LCB); however, Darby ended up playing. The Jets were in a must-win game to secure a playoff birth and Marshall was a shoe-in to see double digit targets when it counted. However, since three of the four next highest costing wide receivers had even better matchups per DVOA and were all slated to out-perform their respective team’s point averages per Vegas, Marshall was relatively under-owned.
2. Martavis Bryant $5,300, 1.0 point (13.7% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 23.0 percent, Peak ownership: 58.8 percent
The Steelers had just laid an egg to the Ravens (#26 pass DVOA) on the road the week before and were looking to right their mistake with a win over Cleveland and possibly squeak into the playoffs. Martavis had seen only three targets in the loss to Baltimore, which was his season lowest (previously seven), and a salary dip of $300 was just seen as a discount for a key cog in the Steelers lethal passing attack. Cleveland had ranked #28 in pass DVOA as well as #28 in rush DVOA, so there was some concern that the Steelers could get up early on the ground and stay on the ground. To make matters worse, Ben Roethlisberger’s dreadful Home/Road splits had been beaten into the ground in the days running up to the Sunday slate. However, Vegas had faith in the Steelers, projecting them to score 2.7 point above their season average (7.6 points above their road average). In the Steelers previous matchup with Cleveland, Martavis went for 178 yards and one TD. With the public off of the Steelers after their recent poor outing, Martavis was a poised to be under-owned and have a bounce back game.
Tight End
1. Rob Gronkowski $7,400, 3.8 points (6.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 13.2 percent, Peak ownership: 47.0 percent
Gronkowski had continued to carry a high price tag throughout the whole season despite waning production (only reaching 2x – 3x in his last 5 games). His ownership levels had also been dipping with the strong play of fellow tight ends Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, and Delanie Walker. Once again Edelman had been ruled out and Amendola would most likely be on a snap count. The Patriots had motivation to clinch the AFC’s #1 seed for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and would likely lean on their stud tight end to carry the team. Miami had been already eliminated from the playoffs and had nothing to play for as a ten-point dog. Gronk did not have an exceptional matchup in the Dolphins (#16 pass DVOA versus TE), but still had the chance to put up a 30 burger. When the field was piling onto Zach Ertz and Jordan Reed likely playing limited minutes, Gronk was the contrarian pick with exceptional upside.
2. Zach Ertz $3,600, 27.2 points (41.3% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 28.7 percent, Peak ownership: 46.2 percent
Ertz had seen a season-high ten targets in Week 10 and averaged only 6.1 targets a game leading up to Week 15. Over his last two games, he had seen a combined 30 targets for 21 catches, 200 yards, and 1 TD. Shortly after his breakout series, Chip Kelly was ousted from the Eagles and the community was left wondering in which direction the Eagles would go for their final game of the season. With the public firmly on Ertz and recency bias in full effect, fading Ertz would allow the pros to get a leg up on a majority of the field if he regressed to his normal production. Bradford would unlikely be heaving 50+ attempts again and the Eagles would possibly attempt to work Murray back into a decent workload leading into the offseason.
Defense & Special Teams
1. St. Louis Rams $3,000, 4.0 points (13.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 18.7 percent, Peak ownership: 52.8 percent
Since relieving Colin Kaepernick in Week 9, Blaine Gabbert had allowed over 3.4 sacks per game, 0.86 INT per game, and averaged only 14.9 points per game. The 49ers had given up the third-most points to opposing defenses and the Rams were projected to only allow 17 points for the lowest game total on the slate. With the 49ers starting a number of relatively no-name running backs with both Carlos Hyde and Shaun Draughn out with injuries, the ground game would likely get stifled and leave Gabbert to air it out.