Best NFL Week 6 Player Props at Online Sportsbooks
In Week 5, we broke out the broom and swept the NFL mess — going 3-3 in props and stashing a few more shekels away for the holiday season. This week, the NFL seems to be prepping for Halloween with a ghoulish slate fit only for die-hard bettors. Can we rummage through all of this slop and find another sweep? Here are my favorite NFL prop picks for Week 6.
Make sure to check out our Week 6 Betting Lines and Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into the action at online sportsbooks. Let’s get started.
NFL Week 6 Player Props — QB Pick for Ravens at Eagles
Lamar Jackson Over/Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (use our FanDuel promo code to get these odds)
The Week 6 slate of games is pretty ugly — leaving small-time bettors like myself and DFS players a challenging puzzle to solve. The passing yardage props released by Friday night were not appetizing. Instead, I am going to attack a situation that was very confusing last week.
In a non-competitive game, Lamar Jackson only attempted two rushes. This seems strange that the Ravens would throw the ball more while ahead but if you get all galaxy brain — perhaps, Baltimore did not want Jackson taking a ton of hits with the game in hand. The Ravens are massive road favorites this week, -9.5 at the time of this writing. The Ravens offense is most effective when Jackson is a dual-threat. If Baltimore is going to put points on the board, Lamar is going to run.
Jackson has had at least 7 rushing attempts in every other game and one 50-yard scamper to the house against the Redskins. Averaging nearly six yards per carry in 2020, Jackson can flirt with this without any big plays. If Jackson gets loose, this could be over in the first half. I will take the over on FanDuel.
My Pick: Over 48.5 Rushing Yards -110
NFL Week 6 Player Props — RB Pick for Bears at Panthers
David Montgomery Over/Under 59.5.5 Rushing Yards Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
For my favorite prop this week, David Montgomery features a beatable rushing prop after slogging two weeks in a row. The game logs from Week 3 and Week 4 are ugly but the matchups were brutal. The Colts and Bucs both rest in the top five NFL defenses for opposing rushing yards per attempt — with the Buccaneers checking in at a putrid 2.7 yards per attempt. This week, albeit on the road, Montgomery draws an immensely better matchup against the Panthers.
The Panthers are playing better but still give up yardage on the ground. A week after making Todd Gurley look like a premier athlete again, the Panthers will likely make Montgomery spry and elusive. Giving up 133.4 yards per game and 5.4 yards per attempt, the Panthers are very beatable on the ground. The Bears would love to make this game ugly, feed Mongtomery, and let the defense do its job again Teddy Bridgewater and company.
Since losing Tarik Cohen, Montgomery has been on the field all of the time. With a 63.1% snap-share on the season, there is no other running back to take work from the lead back. After only carrying the football 10 times in each of the last two games, look for him to return to the 20-carry threshold. At 5 yards per carry, we only need 12 carries. Give me the over on DraftKings.
My Pick: Over 59.5 Rushing Yards -112
NFL Week 6 Player Props — WR Pick for Jets at Dolphins
Preston Williams Over/Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
The Dolphins have been so effective this season in the wide receiver section that I am going back to the well in a fantastic matchup. The Jets, well… What more can we say about the Jets? Atrocious defense. Horrible leadership. Jettisoning stars. I would say the Jets are tanking but even if they were actively trying to win they would still lose. The Jets — while never great — have truly fallen to irrelevance if we are entering a week where the Dolphins are favored by 9.5 points to win.
Pick your approach to beating the Jets. New York is pretty bad in all phases. Ryan Fitzpatrick should have a host of wide-open receivers to throw to throughout this game. DeVante Parker has been our target twice this season, but I am going to take a chance on his teammate, Preston Williams.
Williams saw five targets last week and caught four for better than 100 yards and a long-receiving touchdown. The same opportunity for huge plays will exist on Sunday — the Jets allow north of 11 yards per completion on the season. If Williams continues to be involved, I like the discount on his yardage prop compared to Parker who needs more than 60 yards for us to collect. Parker should have gone over against the 49ers last week but the Dolphins did not need his services in the second half. This game should not be competitive but Williams’ hurdle is far lower than Parker’s. Like Lamar Jackson above, this prop can go over in one touch.
Give me the over for three overs this week. This certainly might not be the best approach, but this slate is pretty weird. Good luck!
My Pick: Over 39.5 Receiving Yards -110
2020 NFL Props Record: 12-3
Net Units on One-Unit Bets: +8.12
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images