NFL Primetime Preview: Week 14
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Primetime Preview, an all-encompassing preview of Sunday and Monday Night Football. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s primetime contests.
Each game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
| New York Giants | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Sun Life Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46.5 | 24 | 1.5 | 46.5 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.6 | 7 | 11 | 29 | Offense | 20.0 | 27 | 17 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.0 | 24 | 24 | 30 | Opp. Defense | 24.7 | 21 | 32 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 22 | 30 | 25 | 29 | New York Giants | 29 | 25 | 19 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Beckham | 133 | 78 | 10 | 1157 | Landry | 117 | 79 | 5 | 928 | |
| Harris | 47 | 28 | 4 | 352 | Matthews | 61 | 43 | 4 | 666 | |
| Randle | 67 | 42 | 4 | 533 | Stills | 47 | 20 | 2 | 343 | |
| Donnell | 41 | 29 | 2 | 223 | Cameron | 58 | 26 | 2 | 306 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Rishard Matthews (MIA, Doubtful), Kenny Stills (MIA, Questionable)
NYG Matchup Rating: 7.0 MIA Matchup Rating: 5.0
New York Giants
Quarterback: This should be one of the more interesting matchups from a fantasy perspective this weekend, as two teams that give up plenty of fantasy points meet on Monday night in what should be a competitive contest. The Giants come into this one on the heels of three straight losses, but still in the hunt in the miserable NFC East. For the Giants to go anywhere with this season, Eli Manning (FD $7,500, DK $6,100) will need to start performing more consistently, which might be too tall of a task for the Ole Miss product. Manning has huge upside as both a real and fantasy quarterback when he’s firing on all cylinders, but his recent performances have shown an inaccurate, inefficient player who doesn’t take full advantage of having one of the best receivers in the league on his side. The Dolphins rank 30th against the pass according to numberFire, and have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, including four touchdowns to Ryan Fitzpatrick just a couple of weeks ago. Manning has the potential for a four-score game, or he could throw for 200 yards, a touchdown and two picks. The uncertainty means he can’t be used in cash contests, but the upside means he’s a strong GPP play.
Running Game: I have strongly considered just removing the “running game” section from the Giants breakdowns and wondered if anyone would notice. The Giants don’t feature any one back, and don’t gain any consistent yardage when they hand the ball off. No back sees a healthy workload in the passing game, either. This is a situation to avoid until further notice.
Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham (FD $9,300, DK $9,100) will likely be shadowed by Brent Grimes in this game, which means he won’t get the benefit of facing Jamar Taylor at all, but otherwise, it’s not a fact that should prohibit you from clicking on Beckham’s name when filling out your lineups. In fact, despite his shadowing efforts most of the season, the Dolphins rank last in terms of DVOA against WR1s. Beckham has double-digit targets in each of his last four appearances, and has 100+ yards in each of his last five. He has six touchdowns over that same span, and seems to be healthy and running well after a mid-season injury likely slowed him down a bit. He’s a core play in all formats and should be the highest scoring wideout on this slate. Rueben Randle (FD $5,600, DK $3,500) sees a few targets per game, and will have favorable matchups, but there’s not a lot of upside for the inconsistent wideout. Will Tye (FD $4,900, DK $2,800) will see a bulk of the work at tight end for the Giants, but his fantasy appeal is low due to a generally low volume of targets.
The Takeaway: Odell Beckham is an elite option in any format, while Eli Manning is worthy of a spot in a couple of your tournament lineups, particularly as a part of a stack with Beckham. Otherwise, the Giants just don’t offer much clarity or talent on offense.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: Prior to a relatively disappointing one-touchdown effort against the Ravens, Ryan Tannehill (FD $6,900, DK $5,200) had thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight games, including three scores and over 300 yards against the Jets. The upside is there for Tannehill, but in a more extreme version of Eli Manning, the floor is there too, and it’s low, and it’s frequently in play. The Giants rank fourth in points allowed to opposing QBs, and 27th in DVOA against the pass, so this is a very favorable matchup for Tannehill. But so was the Baltimore defense last week, which held him to nine completions for 86 yards. Toss Tannehill into a GPP or two, but don’t invest too much in such an inconsistent player.
Running Game: The Giants have been a pretty average run defense this season, but they rank in the top ten in receptions, yards and touchdowns for backs out of the backfield. This sets up well for Lamar Miller (FD $6,600, DK $5,700), who is a talented player who can break big plays on the ground and through the air. Miller is coming off of a 20-carry game against Baltimore, and has a few high-target games over the past couple of months, as well. If he gets 18-20 touches against the Giants, he should be able to earn 100+ yards, and would just need a touchdown to really pay off his salary. The team’s commitment to Miller has always been an issue, as his floor is very low due to inconsistent volume. But the ceiling is high, and he belongs in tournament lineups this weekend.
Pass Catchers: Jarvis Landry (FD $7,100, DK $6,300) avoids the coverage of top corners Prince Amukamara and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie thanks to his role as a slot receiver, which should boost his upside in this matchup. Slot receivers Anquan Boldin, Eric Decker, Danny Amendola and Leonard Hankerson all performed well against the Giants in games earlier this season, and Landry should offer more of the same. He’s great at finding open space, and making moves after the catch, and could break a big play or two in this back-and-forth matchup. DeVante Parker (FD $5,900, DK $4,000) is also worth a mention, as the rookie wideout has touchdowns in his first two appearances, and has unquestionable talent. He won’t have an easy matchup against Prince or DRC, but if Tannehill can throw him a decent pass or two, he could break another huge play again this week.
The Takeaway: Landry is the top option for the Dolphins this week, and is viable in cash games but preferred in tournaments. Miller and Tannehill are solid GPP options, while Parker is an interesting dart throw with a lot of upside.