NFL Primetime Preview: Week 15
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Primetime Preview, an all-encompassing preview of Sunday and Monday Night Football. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s primetime contests.
Each game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
| Detroit Lions | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Mercedes-Benz Superdome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 50.5 | 23.75 | -3 | 50.5 | 26.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.5 | 23 | 9 | 32 | Offense | 24.8 | 11 | 2 | 24 | |
| Opp. Defense | 30.5 | 32 | 30 | 32 | Opp. Defense | 25.8 | 28 | 11 | 21 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans Saints | 32 | 30 | 18 | 32 | Detroit Lions | 18 | 16 | 13 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Johnson | 123 | 71 | 7 | 981 | Cooks | 103 | 64 | 7 | 877 | |
| Tate | 112 | 76 | 4 | 716 | Snead | 80 | 53 | 3 | 804 | |
| Moore | 41 | 27 | 4 | 321 | Colston | 63 | 43 | 3 | 481 | |
| Ebron | 53 | 34 | 4 | 384 | Watson | 86 | 61 | 4 | 712 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
DET Matchup Rating: 7.0
NO Matchup Rating: 8.0
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: The Saints are the worst defense in terms of DVOA against the pass, DVOA against tight ends, weighted DVOA, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and tight ends. They have allowed nearly a half yard more per attempt than any other team this season, they’ve allowed seven more touchdown passes than any other team, and are allowing touchdown passes at an 8% clip, highest in the league by a wide margin. This is a horrible defensive unit, one that even Matthew Stafford (FD $7,800, DK $6,100) should be able to pick apart. Stafford has nine touchdowns in his last three games, with only one interception, so he’s playing well enough to trust heading into this great matchup. Start him in any format.
Running Game: The Saints are bad against the run, as well, ranking 27th in DVOA and third in fantasy points allowed. They’re subpar at defending backs in the passing game, but are mainly just terrible at stopping the run, allowing backs to gain more than five yards per carry on the season. Ameer Abdullah (FD $5,300, DK $3,900) appeared to have taken over the backfield from a rushing standpoint, but Joique Bell (FD $5,300, DK $4,100) is very much still involved, and that drags down the value for both players. Theo Riddick (FD $5,400, DK $4,000) is seemingly always a PPR play, and if this game remains competitive, he’ll get his fair share of looks in the passing game. Abdullah is the back I want if I’m taking a chance on one of the early down guys, while Riddick is a PPR GPP play.
Pass Catchers: The Saints rank 29th in DVOA against WR1, and Calvin Johnson (FD $8,000, DK $6,900) is the epitome of a WR1. He’s viable in all formats. Golden Tate (FD $6,900, DK $5,500) has been more heavily involved in the offense as of late, and with this game likely turning into a shootout, I like his chances of breaking a big play or two, and hauling in a handful of passes. He’s a strong tournament play, possibly even in a double stack with Stafford and Megatron. And while Eric Ebron (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) has been inconsistent this season, he’s facing the league’s worst tight end defense (by a wide margin), and has one fewer tight end to compete with as Brandon Pettigrew is out for the season. He’s a solid tournament play for a cheap price.
The Takeaway: The running back situation for the Lions is frustrating in such a good matchup, but every other Detroit offensive skill position player is viable against the terrible Saints defense.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: There hasn’t been a lot of upside involved in facing the Detroit defense this season as a quarterback, as the team ranks 15th in points allowed to opposing QBs with consistent performances all year. Carson Palmer is the only QB to throw for more than two touchdowns, which means Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr are among those limited to just two passing scores against the Lions. Drew Brees (FD $8,000, DK $6,600) would need more than two passing touchdowns to keep up with all of the other great options on this weekend slate, and while he stands a good chance of doing so, I don’t think it’s something we can predict with confidence. He’s definitely viable in tournaments, but Stafford is the only cash game option in this Monday night game that should feature tons of points.
Running Game: The Lions are like the Steelers in that they are as average as can be on defense, ranking in the middle of the road in a lot of categories. This means Tim Hightower (FD $6,300, DK $3,900) gets a shot against a team no better than the one he gained 85 yards and a touchdown against a week ago, but at a slightly higher price in DFS. He’s priced in the right range now, along with other backs (Hill, Gore) who offer questionable efficiency and upside, but solid potential for touches and a score or two. I would use Hightower in a lineup or two, as I think he could score two or three touchdowns, but don’t expect a ton of yards from the veteran back on the comeback trail.
Pass Catchers: Darius Slay doesn’t normally shadow players into the slot, per Pro Football Focus, but he will likely follow Brandin Cooks around when he’s lined up on the outside for most of this game. Slay is a tough matchup, and it’s enough of a reason to reduce expectations for Cooks. Willie Snead (FD $6,000, DK $4,600) and Marques Colston (FD $5,700, DK $3,600) are more appealing, but are tough to choose between. That’s why my preferred Saints pass catcher is Benjamin Watson (FD $5,600, DK $4,800), as the Lions rank fifth in points allowed to tight ends and 30th in DVOA against the position. He’s cash game viable and a strong play in GPPs.
The Takeaway: The Lions are a better defense than the Saints, but the Saints will be playing at home in primetime, and will likely need to score a ton of points to keep up with their opponent. I like Brees, Hightower and Watson in tournaments, while the latter can be used in cash games as well.