NFL Primetime Preview: Week 16
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Primetime Preview, an all-encompassing preview of Sunday and Monday Night Football. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s primetime contests.
Each game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos
| Cincinnati Bengals | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Mile High Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 40.5 | 18.5 | -3.5 | 40.5 | 22 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.0 | 4 | 12 | 15 | Offense | 22.0 | 18 | 18 | 18 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 17.4 | 1 | 21 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 14 | 1 | 20 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 13 | 10 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 118 | 77 | 8 | 1206 | Thomas | 156 | 93 | 5 | 1128 | |
| Sanu | 44 | 29 | 1 | 409 | Sanders | 124 | 67 | 5 | 998 | |
| Jones | 91 | 57 | 4 | 778 | Latimer | 11 | 6 | 1 | 60 | |
| Eifert | 70 | 48 | 12 | 564 | Daniels | 69 | 40 | 3 | 432 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: A.J. Green (CIN, Questionable), Tyler Eifert (CIN, Doubtful), Peyton Manning (DEN, Out), C.J. Anderson (DEN, Questionable)
CIN Matchup Rating: 2.5
DEN Matchup Rating: 2.5
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: AJ McCarron (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) managed the Bengals’ offense well in his first start last week, but showed little upside in a premium matchup against the Niners. This week, against the league’s top-ranked DVOA pass defense, top-ranked weighted DVOA defense, and top-ranked pass and overall numberFire defense, he’ll need to do a bit more if he wants to get some points on the board. The Broncos have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of their last four games, but those have come to Brady, Roethlisberger, and Carr. McCarron is not even remotely close to that level of passer, and his floor and ceiling in this matchup are far too low to consider. Spend a couple of extra bucks on Teddy Bridgewater if you really want to go cheap at QB.
Running Game: Jeremy Hill (FD $6,100, DK $4,900) and Giovani Bernard (FD $5,500, DK $4,300) will split opportunities against one of the league’s elite defense, which takes both out of consideration for DFS purposes. The Broncos have the third-best DVOA run defense, and the top DVOA pass defense against running backs. They have allowed a decent amount of fantasy points to opposing backs, but figuring out which Cincy back (if either) will get the bulk of the fantasy production is a futile task.
Pass Catchers: The Broncos have elite corners and a strong pass rush, which will limit the upside of any receiver lined up against them. That’s why they have allowed the fewest points to the position this season, at nearly half the total of the most porous secondaries. I want to believe that A.J. Green (FD $8,400, DK $7,100) can overcome all of that and still produce, but at his price, he’s just not worth the risk. With Tyler Eifert (FD $6,300, DK $4,900) unlikely to play, there are no appealing options in this receiving corps.
The Takeaway: This will be an incredibly fun game to watch live, but it’s a terrible fantasy football matchup for both teams. The Bengals just don’t have much upside against an elite defense like the Broncos’.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Brock Osweiler (FD $6,800, DK $5,100) is dealing with an injury, but if he’s able to sort himself out ahead of Monday night’s game, he will start against a Bengal defense that has allowed the third-fewest points to QBs all season. However, the underlying metrics suggest this might be a bit of an overperformance from Cincinnati. Either way, Osweiler doesn’t offer a ton of upside, as his strong fantasy performance against the Steelers is offset by letdowns against weak defenses from Oakland and San Diego in weeks prior. Again, Teddy Bridgewater is the preferred QB in this price range, but Osweiler is a better pick than many of the backups and journeymen starting for various teams.
Running Game: With C.J. Anderson (FD $5,500, DK $3,700) less than 100%, and proven ineffective when not fully healthy, Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,200, DK $4,200) will be the back to target if you want to play an RB in this matchup. The Broncos are home favorites, and numberFire rank the Bengals 18th in run defense, so if there’s a spot to target in this entire game, it might be the Bronco run game. Even then, Hillman was a disappointment last week, and is a secondary tournament option this week.
Pass Catchers: Lots of people will look at last week’s big numbers for Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,500, DK $5,800) and flock to him this weekend, but Demaryius Thomas (FD $7,800, DK $6,800) continued to be a top target for Osweiler, and shouldn’t be ignored. Sanders was well behind Thomas in targets from the towering backup QB until last week, and even then, Thomas saw 12 passes thrown his way and caught two touchdowns. Thomas is the better play this weekend, as he and Sanders will split routes run against Adam Jones, and should be able to get open against Dre Kirkpatrick when given the opportunity. He’s a bigger threat to score a touchdown, and has shown good chemistry with Osweiler for weeks now.
The Takeaway: The Broncos are home favorites, and despite a fairly tough matchup, there are a couple of players to consider. Thomas is the top play, while Sanders, Hillman and Osweiler are worthy of different levels of interest in GPP contests.