NFL Week 15 Betting Lines and Picks 2021
We are now entering Week 15 of NFL regular season action, and the playoff race is heating up in both conferences. The Patriots have company atop the AFC, with the usual-suspect Chiefs riding a six-game winning streak, and the Titans still fighting for every game. All three squads have 9-4 records, while 10 total AFC teams have at least seven wins. Meanwhile, the NFC has three 10-game winners—Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay—but only six NFC teams have winning records. This could be the week many teams receive their unofficial death notices, while others vault themselves more firmly into the postseason picture.
Each week, we give you NFL betting tips for every single game of the upcoming week’s schedule. We rank the 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. Sunday games by order of confidence level, and of course provide our best bets and over/unders for each of the three primetime games.
After going 10-6 overall two weeks ago, we stumbled a bit on our first two primetime games in Week 14 primetime games but went 8-4 on Sunday day games and 2-0 on Monday Night Football. We finished with an 11-7 record for the week, which we will take. We’re making money ahead of Christmas—that’s all that matters!
Let’s dive right into some early Week 15 lines and betting picks!
NFL Week 15 Betting Lines and Picks
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers +4, O/U 51.5
NFL Week 15 kicks off with the Chiefs at the Chargers. The Chargers already defeated the division-rival Chiefs at Arrowhead this year, and a win at SoFi this weekend would put LA in the driver’s seat in the AFC West. But Kansas City has somewhat quietly won six games in a row, and possesses a +83 scoring differential on the season. I liked this spread a lot better when it opened at Chiefs -3.5—I would have bought a point and rooted for Patrick Mahomes and Co. to beat the Bolts by a field goal. Now that the line has shifted to four, I have to go with Justin Herbert and the red-hot Chargers to at least cover at home. I also like the OVER in what should be a shootout. The OVER has gone 4-3 in LA’s home game, and 3-2 in Kansas City’s away games.
PICK: Chargers +4, OVER 51.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns -3, O/U 42
NFL bettors get a treat with two games on Saturday, starting in Cleveland. Unfortunately, there has been a Covid-breakout in the Browns locker room and the line is unavailable at most sportsbooks. Before the news that Baker Mayfield had tested positive, the Browns were -3. If you can still find that available, I suggest taking the points and backing the Raiders +3.
PICK: Raiders +3 if you can find it
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts -2.5, O/U 45.5
It’s simply impossible to pick against Bill Belichick, rookie QB Mac Jones, and the New England Patriots at this point. Even against a strong Indy team that ranks first in scoring in the AFC, I think the Pats will go into Lucas Oil Stadium with a good game plan. Belichick’s defense has allowed 36 points over the last five games, and New England hasn’t lost since October 17. Buy a point if you want, but I can’t imagine betting against a team that’s won seven straight games and owns the best DVOA in pro football.
PICK: Patriots +2.5
Early Sunday Games (1:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans -2, O/U 41.5
The Steelers have been a crazy team to watch this season. Sometimes they look like a dumpster fire in need of a complete overhaul, other times they appear to be a playoff contender that can put up points at will. Pittsburgh almost pulled off a wild comeback against Minnesota last week, behind some spectacular drives by veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger, but it couldn’t quite get over the hump at the end of the game. I think the Titans should be on upset alert this weekend at Heinz Field—these are not the Titans we saw earlier in the year, and they desperately miss rushing king Derrick Henry and talented wideout A.J. Brown.
PICK: Steelers +2
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions +13.5, O/U 47.5
It’s go-time for the Cardinals, who just got outperformed at just about every level in their Monday Night Football loss to the Rams. Arizona will have to finish strong if it wants to retain the first-round bye in the playoffs. The Lions should be just what the doctor ordered—they are 1-11-1, and have been blown out four times this season. Go with Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and friends for the heavy cover.
PICK: Cardinals -13.5
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills -10.5, O/U 43.5
Going back to Cam Newton has not worked for the Panthers—the Panthers are now 0-11 in their last 11 games in which Cam was the starting QB. Now they must travel to Orchard Park in December to take on a Bills squad reeling from two tough losses. Buffalo’s D should destroy the mistake-prone Panthers, and as long as QB Josh Allen plays, the Bills offense should have no trouble putting up plenty of points. Carolina has allowed 27 or more points to its past three opponents.
PICK: Bills -10.5
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins -8.5, O/U 42.5
The Dolphins have flown—or rather, swum—under the radar during their five-game winning streak, and now they get a date with erratic rookie QB Zach Wilson and the Jets. I like the ‘phins at home, where they have outscored their last four opponents 92-38. Second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa may not be pretty at all times, but he’s certainly effective for this Miami team. And the winning spirit seems to be contagious, as the Dolphins defense has been strong. I’m taking Miami with confidence here.
PICK: Dolphins -8.5
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants +10.5, O/U 45
The Cowboys have won two straight games—against Washington and New Orleans—but they haven’t looked great offensively in the process. But I do like what I’m seeing out of rookie linebacker Micah Parsons and this defense, so I’m likely going with Dallas to cover against a Giants squad that will probably be without Daniel Jones (back) for at least another week. Consider buying a point for insurance either way.
PICK: Cowboys -10.5
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles -5, O/U 44
Jalen Hurts should be back for the Eagles this week, while WFT should also have Taylor Heinicke active. I’m giving the benefit of the doubt to Philly, a much better offense than WFT when it has its star under center. WFT managed just 224 total yards (124 passing, 100 rushing) against Dallas last week. The Eagles can’t hold a candle to the Cowboys defense, but they can cover a five-point spread at home, especially against a mediocre team that ranks dead-last against QBs this season.
PICK: Eagles -5
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5, O/U 39.5
In a battle of crappy squads, pick the one getting 3.5 points. Houston got its doors blown off by Seattle and Indy the past two weeks, but it beat the Titans just a few weeks ago. The Texans could win this game straight up against a shaky head coach in Urban Meyer and an oft-erratic rookie QB in Trevor Lawrence. The Jags have given talented second-year back single-digit touches in each of their last two games—don’t trust them to cover the -3.5, whether it’s against Davis Mills or Tyrod Taylor.
PICK: Texans +3.5
Late Games (4:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers -8.5, O/U 45.5
The Niners are rolling with George Kittle back in action, and they’ve won four of their last five games. They have knocked off the Rams and Vikings during that run, so I like them to handily dismiss an inept Atlanta defense this coming weekend. San Fran has far too many weapons for the Falcons to contain. Deebo Samuel is having an All-Pro season, and Kittle looks as dominant as ever since his return from injury. This Niners team could make plenty of noise between now and the playoffs.
PICK: 49ers -8.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos -1.5, O/U 43
This one’s a crapshoot, as both these squads have been playing well offensively as of late. But I’ll lean toward Denver, with a better defense and a powerful running attack. I’ll also take the OVER—43 seems like a pretty small number for two teams with above-average depth at the skill positions. I don’t blame you if you skip the spread, but bet the OVER with confidence.
PICK: OVER 43
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams -5.5, O/U 45.5
The Seahawks have looked pretty solid the last couple weeks, beating the division-rival 49ers and then routing the Texans. Is “Mr. Unlimited” Russell Wilson back!? Hopefully so, considering Seattle now must travel to SoFi Stadium to take on a Rams squad that just beat the Cardinals in Arizona but are dealing with Covid concerns and quarantining early in the week as a result. I’m going to nervously back the Seahawks here, based purely on Wilson’s clutch late-season pedigree throughout his career. I fully expect LA to win, but think it will be a 3 or 4-point game. I’d also consider the OVER here—two of the Rams’ last three games have gone well over 47 points, and Seattle has scored 60 points over the last two weeks.
PICK: Seahawks +5, OVER 45.5
Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens +4.5, O/U 43.5
We don’t know what’s going on with Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson quite yet, so I wouldn’t recommend betting this one early unless you feel strongly about the Packers. I don’t blame you if you’re leaning toward reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers — he’s 41-15 in regular season games from December on throughout his career. The Ravens don’t have as impressive a defense as we’ve seen from them in years past, and their running back corps has been injured all season. Go with the OVER—Rodgers, wideout Davante Adams, and running back Aaron Jones can practically hit 44 by themselves.
PICK: OVER 43.5
Sunday & Monday Night Football Picks
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5, O/U 46.5
I know the reigning champs have been rolling lately, but I just can’t envision a world where a Sean Payton Saints squad gets blown out by Tom Brady on national television. New Orleans has won six of its last seven meetings with the Bucs, and Brady is just 4-4 lifetime against the Saints with 17 TDs, 10 interceptions, and a 93.2 QB rating. So, surprise surprise, I’m taking an underdog to cover in a primetime game.
PICK: Saints +10.5, UNDER 46.5
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears +3.5, O/U 44
Matt Nagy’s Bears put up a hell of a fight last week against Green Bay, but still ultimately fell 45-30 after Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones went nuclear in the second half. I don’t trust this Chicago offense one bit, and I don’t think I can trust the motivation of a Bears D that just surrendered 27 first downs and 439 total yards of offense. I’ve got Minnesota here, but I’m fully expecting something weird to go down like it always seems to in Monday Night Football contests.
PICK: Vikings -3.5, OVER 44
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