NFL Week 16 Daily Fantasy Recap

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2013-12-27 00:08:18

Note: Stats below do not include the Monday Night Football game.

What Worked

• The Bengals passing attack. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green were one of the most popular QB/WR combinations in the DraftKings Fantasy Millionaire Grand Final, and they gave their owners a huge boost on Sunday. The Bengals have been a much more potent offense at home this season, and the Vikings coming to town made this team an even more intriguing target. While the Vikings were screwing up offensively in the first half, the Bengals were doing whatever they wanted to when they had the ball. The Vikings awful secondary offered no resistance, allowing Dalton to complete 27-of-38 attempts for 366 yards and four touchdowns. The Vikings looked completely helpless trying to cover A.J. Green, who scored twice while snatching seven balls for 97 yards. Dalton’s other scores went to Mohamed Sanu (4 catches for 35 yards) and Jermaine Gresham (3 for 49). Marvin Jones also had a big game with six catches (on seven targets) for 85 yards, but he was kept out of the endzone. If you had a part of this passing attack (other than Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard), things probably went well for you this week.

• The Broncos. Nothing new here, but these guys are nearly impossible to hold in check. Peyton Manning managed to break Tom Brady single-season mark for touchdowns in a single season when he threw his 51st late in the game. On the day, Peyton threw for 400 yards and 4 TD’s without turning the ball over, and he got all of his main targets involved. Eric Decker was the main beneficiary with 17 targets, 10 of which he caught for 131 yards and two touchdowns. Demaryius Thomas wasn’t far behind, reeling in 8 of his 14 targets for 123 yards and a touchdown. Orange Julius also got in on the fun, catching Peyton’s record breaking touchdown in the fourth quarter and finishing with 6 for 78. This team has treated it’s fantasy owners very well all season, and rewarded anyone who payed up for them this week.

• The Philadelphia ground game. We all know how atrocious the Bears run-defense is, so it makes sense that the leagues leading rusher had his way with them. On just 18 carries, McCoy racked up 133 yards and two touchdowns, and added six receptions for 26 yards to boost his day on PPR sites. Shady had some huge holes to run through and as usual, the Bears defense was severely over-matched by this offense. After the game was out of hand, Bryce Brown was even more efficient than his predecessor, carrying just nine times for 115 yards and a score. Even the third string RB Chris Polk scored a touchdown, so imagine the numbers Shady could have produced had this game stayed competitive. These three backs combined for an average of 8.97 YPC, so it’s no wonder that Nick Foles attempted just 25 passes.

• Rookie Running Backs. If you got a chance to watch the Green Bay/Pittsburgh game on Sunday, you saw the top two rookie running backs going head-to-head in a surprisingly exciting game. Before leaving with an injury in the second half, Eddie Lacy had carried 15 times for 84 yards and a touchdown, and did it in just three quarters of action. Lacy would have almost surely crossed the 100-yard mark had he stayed in the game, but it’s tough to complain with two scores and 80+ yards. Le’Veon Bell, who was chosen before Lacy in last year’s draft, scored the game-winning touchdown with about a minute remaining in the fourth quarter, capping off an impressive day from the rookie. Although he did fumble for the first time in his NFL career, Bell finished the day with 124 yards on 26 carries. Zac Stacy was picked much later )160th, 5th round) than either Bell or Lacy, but he’s looked like an early round pick in his time as the starter in St. Louis. Jeff Fisher has been running him into the ground when he’s healthy, regularly handing it to him 25+ times a game, so he clearly has a decent amount of trust in Stacy. On Sunday, Stacy saw 33 carries, which he turned into 104 yards and a touchdown. He had some success in the yardage department early, but Tampa Bay clamped down on the run late in the game and limited the damage thereafter.

• Pierre Garcon. Without his “franchise” quarterback, Garcon has stepped up over the last two games with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Cousins seems to lack trust in the secondary receiving options for Washington, and it’s hard to blame him; Aldrick Robinson and Santana Moss certainly aren’t scaring opposing defenses. Garcon was targeted a whopping 18 times against the Cowboys, and no other Redskins receiver saw more than four. Cousins didn’t play particularly well against one of the leagues worst defenses, but you couldn’t tell by looking at Garcon’s final line: 11 catches for 144 yards and a touchdown.

• DeMarco Murray. After a frustrating end to last week’s epic meltdown against the Packers, the Cowboys came to their senses and attacked the Redskins with a more balanced approach. The Oklahoma alum saw 22 carries on the day, while Tony Romo attempted just 27 passes. Murray struggled to find holes as easily as he did last week, but still managed to gain 96 yards (4.4 YPC) and found the endzone in the first quarter. With Romo now out for the year, expect the Cowboys to lean heavily on Murray in their Week 17 showdown with the Eagles, and that game will be the best one to target next week. Both teams are fighting for a playoff birth and obviously won’t be resting any starters, not to mention the game should have one of the highest O/U’s of the week.

• The Patriots Defense. This unit has had it’s share of ups and downs this year, but they turned out the best performance of any defense in Week 16. They forced three interceptions from the combination of Joe Flacco and Tyrod Taylor (one of which was returned for a touchdown), and Chandler Jones recovered a fumble in the endzone for another defensive touchdown. Both of those scores happened with less then two minutes left in the fourth quarter, so it took garbage time for them to rack up the fantasy points, but they played well throughout the game and shut the Ravens out through three quarters. It’s really not all that surprising to see the Ravens offense struggle, considering Joe Flacco has tailed off and the running game has struggled all season, but not many predicted the Patriots to be the D/ST leading scorer this week.

What Disappointed Us

• The Lions. What a dreadful performance the Lions put forth with their playoff hopes on the line against the Giants. What more could they have asked for? They got to play at home against one of the league’s worst teams, but still couldn’t pull out a win and more importantly, the starters failed to produce any kind of fantasy success. Let’s start with Matt Stafford; he attempted 42 passes but completed just 25 of them for 222 yards with a 0/2 TD-to-INT ratio. He made plenty of mistakes in this game, including two interceptions which brought on loud boos from the home crowd, who were understandably irate with Sunday’s outcome. The second interception (which was returned for a TD) came with the Lions leading by a touchdown with just a few minutes to go in the fourth quarter, really shifting the games momentum. Stafford struggled mightily without Calvin Johnson, who did suit up despite Sunday morning reports that he would be a game-time decision, but he was highly ineffective. Constantly leaving and reentering the game, Johnson was limited to just three catches for 43 yards on four targets. The Lions other premier play-maker, Reggie Bush, was just plain awful. Joique Bell played an increased role because the coaching staff got fed up with Bush, who lost a fumble near midfield in the first half. Bush got another chance following intermission, but he dropped a pass on what should have resulted in a big play. He was also ineffective when running the ball, gaining just 34 yards on 12 carries.

• The Bears. They may have played even worse then their NFC North rivals… Going into Philadelphia in a game that lacked much meaning, the Bears came out flat and were completely stifled by the Philly defense all night long. All four of the Bears major fantasy threats (Cutler, Forte, Marshall and Jeffrey) posted below-average numbers, which hurt a lot of a lineups across the industry. Cutler ended up getting pulled after a pick-six in the fourth, and threw for just 222 yards and a touchdown on 35 attempts. The running game didn’t fare any better, as Matt Forte carried the ball just 9 times for 29 yards, adding four receptions for another 25. Both receivers were targeted nine times, but neither posted an encouraging line; Marshall finished with 4-36-1, while Jeffrey went for 6-76-0. So much for a back-and-forth shootout on Sunday Night Football.

• Dennis Johnson. I probably wouldn’t have mentioned him here had he not been 30% owned in the DraftKings final, but he was just completely ineffective on Sunday and left his owners with a mere 5 DraftKings points. It was obviously tough for the Texans to stay with the ground game considering the lack of success, but Johnson struggled right out of the gate, and was benched for Deji Karim after carrying 12 times for just 29 yards. Johnson is probably too small to be relied on as a between-the-tackles runner, and he was contained rather easily by the Broncos on Sunday. It’s always enticing when a minimum priced RB gets catapulted up to the #1 spot on his teams depth chart, but it’s certainly not a play that always work out.

• Premier Quarterbacks. While Peyton Manning was dominant this week, most of the big name quarterbacks struggled mightily on Sunday. We already touched on how bad Matt Stafford was, costing his team a shot at a playoff birth, but he was just one of many. Both quarterbacks in the Carolina/New Orleans game struggled to get anything going, and each of them had to settle for a single touchdown pass, and neither eclipsed 300 yards (Newton finished with just 181, Brees with 281). Russell Wilson is a borderline QB1, but he didn’t play like it against the Cardinals. The strength of the Arizona defense can explain a portion of Wilson’s struggles, but most of the fault lies with him. He was uncharacteristically inaccurate, completing just 11 of 27 attempts for 108 yards. Wilson had a 1/1 TD-to-INT ratio and added just 32 yards on the ground. Taking into account the match-up alone, Philip Rivers can also be considered a premier Week 16 option. While it clearly didn’t work out, Rivers seemed poised for a solid performance and could have had a bigger day if not for a few dropped touchdown passes. Nonetheless, he finished with just 201 yards and a TD on 29 attempts, as the Chargers realized quickly that they could control the game on the ground. San Diego is content sitting on leads by draining the clock with the run game, which really caps Rivers’ upside in games where the Chargers are favored by a decent margin. Last but certainly not least, we can’t forget about Boston’s golden boy Tom Brady. He actually didn’t play badly, but the Patriots got ahead early and like the Chargers, controlled the game on the ground thereafter. Brady finished with 172 yards and a TD on 14-of-26 attempts, and managed to have a few touchdown opportunities vultured by the game’s leading rusher, none other then LeGarrette Blount.

• Shane Vereen. It’s hard to imagine that Vereen finished with 13 fewer touches then Blount, but this was the product of an injury. Vereen seemed like a bounce-back candidate after last week’s dud, but he left this one after just three touches with a groin injury and never returned to the game. When Gronk went down, Vereen looked like one of the main beneficiaries, but he’s actually taken a dive the past two games without the star tight end, although Sunday’s dud can at least be blamed on an injury. However, you can never count out a Patriots running back; Bill Belichek is pretty good at getting his starters to bounce back after a few down games, and Vereen will probably be a big part of the offense during the playoffs. I’m not sure that his workload improves all that much in the regular-season finale with Buffalo, if the Pats even allow him to suit up and risk his health.

What Surprised Us

• Donald Brown. The Colts convincing victory over the Chiefs was surprising as a whole, but Brown turned in one of the best RB performances of the week despite receiving just 12 touches. Brown managed to account for two long touchdowns (33 and 51 yards) and vastly outperformed teammate Trent Richardson. He’s playing for a contract with his current deal with the Colts ending after this season, and he probably made himself some money this week. The former first round pick finished with 120 total yards and helped lead the Colts to a big win on the road, and rewarded anyone who had the stones to roll him out on Sunday.

• The Jets offense. It never looks all that pretty, but the Jets continue to get the job done when playing in front of the home crowd. The Browns are not one of the NFL’s better teams, but their defense isn’t bad despite the 4-11 record. Geno Smith tagged them for three total touchdowns, two through the air, and added 48 rushing yards to go along with his 214 passing yards. Both of his touchdown throws landed in the arms of David Nelson, who turned his five targets into a 4-33-2 line. The running backs were finding success as well, with Chris Ivory rushing for 109 yards on 20 carries (5.5 YPC) and Bilal Powell adding seven totes for 54 yards (7.7 YPC). It still surprises me that this team even has a chance to finish at .500 with their lack of talent on offense, but they’ve somehow been able to grind 7 wins out.

• Andre Johnson sees 13 targets against Denver, but finishes with just four catches. Oh wait, he has Matt Schaub throwing him the ball… AJ was one of the highest projected wideouts of Week 16 and was matched up with a defense that has been burned through the air for most of the season. While Schaub did fairly well targeting his secondary weapons, he and Andre were clearly out of sync on Sunday (…or maybe it’s the QB’s lack of talent). While his YPC was solid, he could only reel in four of his 13 targets for 63 yards, and was held out of the endzone. It was a disappointing day for the entire offense, which is becoming a trend in Houston as they fight for the first overall pick in next years draft.

• Miami’s lack of offensive success against the Bills. It’s one thing to get shutout, but it’s another thing to get shutout by the Bills. The Buffalo defense somehow managed to hold the Miami offense to just 103 total yards on the day, and allowed just six first downs in a game they dominated from the beginning. Ryan Tannehill completed just 10 of 27 passes for 82 yards, and was pulled for Matt Moore late in the game. Moore fared even worse, throwing two interceptions on just six attempts. If you thought that was bad, check out the combined stats for Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas: 12 carries for 14 yards, their longest run of the day totaling just three yards. All of the pass-catchers obviously had rough days, and this is a game the Dolphins will want to forget rather quickly.

• The Titans dependence on the ground game. Considering they trailed (although not by much) for the first three quarters, it’s pretty surprising that both Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene both received around 20 carries. CJ1K led the team with 22 carries, and racked up 93 total yards on the day, so it wasn’t as if he was overly effective. Shonn Greene plodded his way 91 yards on 19 carries, and scored from the one-yard line to put the Titans within three points of the Jags late in the third quarter. Tennessee would go on the win the game, and their reliance on the run helped them control the clock, but I don’t think many were expecting Greene to see the workload that he ultimately received.

This Week’s Top Performers: Quarterbacks

This Week’s Top Performers: Running Backs – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Wide Receivers – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Tight Ends – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Running Backs – Full Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Wide Receivers – Full Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Tight Ends – Full Point PPR

Optimal Lineups

Optimal Lineup: FanDuel

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Andy Dalton	$8,400	31.64
RB	Joique Bell	$6,600	26.40
RB	Donald Brown	$5,000	24.00
WR	Eric Decker	$7,200	30.10
WR	Pierre Garcon	$7,300	25.90
WR	A.J. Green	$8,600	25.20
TE	Julius Thomas	$6,500	16.80
K	Nick Novak	$5,200	14.00
DEF	New England	$5,200	31.00
	TOTALS	$60,000	225.04

Optimal Lineup: DraftStreet

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Andy Dalton	$12,875	31.64
QB	Geno Smith	$8,057	27.36
RB	LeSean McCoy	$15,554	31.20
RB	Joique Bell	$8,501	26.40
WR	Eric Decker	$11,560	30.10
WR	Pierre Garcon	$12,665	25.90
TE	Julius Thomas	$9,824	16.80
FLEX	LeGarrette Blount	$4,270	19.60
FLEX	A.J. Green	$13,278	25.20
DEF	New England	$2,494	27.00
	TOTALS	$99,078	261.20

Optimal Lineup: DraftKings

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Andy Dalton	$7,400	34.64
RB	LeSean McCoy	$8,500	37.20
RB	Joique Bell	$4,600	31.40
WR	Eric Decker	$6,700	38.10
WR	Pierre Garcon	$6,300	34.40
TE	Nate Washington	$3,600	26.70
FLEX	Julius Thomas	$6,100	19.80
K	Nick Novak	$3,700	14.00
DEF	New England	$2,700	31.00
	TOTALS	$49,600	267.24

Note: DraftKings Optimals does not include bonuses awarded in DK’s scoring system