NFL Week 17 Betting Lines and Picks 2021
The penultimate week of the 2021 NFL season is upon us, and the excitement is palpable. Only one team, the Kansas City Chiefs, has clinched a playoff spot in the AFC, with six teams in the hunt and another six on the bubble. In the NFC, Green Bay leads the pack at 12-3, with three 11-4 teams hot on its trail. This is the best time of the regular season for football fans, and it’s often the most profitable time of the year for bettors. This is the home stretch, when the studs usually show up, and the duds usually fizzle out.
Each week, we give you NFL betting tips for every single game of the upcoming week’s schedule. We rank the 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. Sunday games by order of confidence level, and of course provide our best bets and over/unders for the two primetime games.
Last week was another good one for us. We whiffed on Thursday Night Football, but we nailed the two Saturday games and went 11-7 total on the weekend. We’ve stacked some lucrative weekends together now, and we’re looking to ride the momentum and make some more money on Week 17 lines. So, let’s get to our betting picks!
NFL Week 17 Lines and Betting Picks
Early Sunday Games (1:00 p.m. slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots -15.5, O/U 42
You’d have to be out of your mind to bet a nearly 16-point spread going either direction, but I’m very intrigued by the UNDER here. Frankly, I feel bad for Jacksonville this weekend. Going into Foxboro, to play a pissed-off Bill Belichick and the Patriots, in the late December rain (wait, is that last part a Guns ‘N Roses song?)… yeah, this could get ugly quickly. New England leads the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 17.3 points per game. The Jaguars are dead-last in scoring offense, averaging 14.4 points per game. We could go on—Jags rookie QB Trevor Lawrence is tied for the league-lead with 14 interceptions, while the Pats have the second-most defensive picks in the NFL (20). Belichick’s boys rank in the top five in a ton of defensive cats: points, yards, passing yards, passing TDs, rushing TDs, first downs, takeaways, interceptions, third-down conversion percentage and red-zone TD percentage. Jacksonville has reached 20 points one time since the beginning of October, and that was against the Jets. This could be a shutout, but I don’t want to bet the -15.5 and get killed by garbage time. Bet the UNDER.
PICK: UNDER 42
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts -6.5, O/U 45
The Raiders have won two games in a row since getting annihilated 48-9 by Kansas City on December 12. But are we really impressed by those two Vegas wins? Derek Carr just barely outdueled Nick Mullens and the Browns 16-14 on December 20, and then hobbled through a 17-13 home win over Drew Lock and the Broncos last weekend. Now the Raiders must travel to Indianapolis, to face a red-hot Colts team that’s won six of their last seven games. Carson Wentz has been a superb game manager during this run, a perfect complement to MVP candidate running back Jonathan Taylor. We’ve seen Indy crush the Bills 41-15, handle the Patriots 27-17, and knock off the Cardinals 22-16. I’ll buy a point and take the Colts by seven—they’re 10-5 against the spread this season, and hot on the Titans’ tails for the AFC South title.
PICK: Colts -6.5
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens +3.5, O/U 46.5
I’ve got the Rams in the NFC Championship Game against the Bucs—they are one of the better all-around teams in the NFL, and they proved that by going 4-0 in December. Among the foes they’ve slayed in that stretch: Arizona, Seattle, and Minnesota. Next up: Baltimore. I’m more liable to pick LA’s -176 moneyline than the -3.5 spread. The game is in Baltimore, and we still aren’t sure if we’ll see Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. Just take the better team straight up. Also, bet the OVER on basically any prop involving Pro Bowl receiver Cooper Kupp —at the rate this dude is playing, he could be the first-ever receiver to win MVP!
PICK: Rams -182 ML, BetMGM
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals +5, O/U 51
This has the makings of a fantastic game. The AFC defending-champion Chiefs—winners of eight straight—head to Cincy, where the Bengals just destroyed the Ravens 41-21 last weekend. I’m leaning toward Kansas City here, but there’s too many variables to take the -5. Will second-year Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire play? Is stud tight end Travis Kelce going to clear COVID protocols by the weekend? What’s the weather in Cincy five days from now? Give me the OVER here, as I’m sure it’s not going to be a field goal battle. Super Bowl champion and 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 926 yards and eight touchdowns in the past three weeks, and 2020 No. 1 pick Joe Burrow just obliterated Baltimore with this line: 37-46, 525 yards, four touchdowns, 143.2 QB rating. Let’s root for the points, boys and girls.
PICK: OVER 51
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets +12.5, O/U 46
I’m usually not a huge fan of 13-point spreads, but I’m less worried about them in the home stretch of a playoff race. Tampa had a wakeup call two weeks ago, when the Saints came in and shut them out 9-0. Tom Brady and the Bucs responded by decimating the Panthers 32-6 last weekend, and they should take care of business against the lowly Jets. Gang Green ranks dead-last in scoring defense, allowing 29.3 points per game, while Tampa ranks second in scoring offense with 29.5 points per game. Brady leads the free world in yards (4,850) and touchdowns (39), and he’s still got an outside shot at MVP. The Bucs also have a chance at the No. 1 seed, sitting just a game behind the 12-5 Packers. The GOAT is 29-7 lifetime against the Jets, with a 57-15 TD:INT ratio. Bruce Arians’ squad won’t be dilly-dallying against a four-win team led by a bumbling rookie QB.
PICK: Bucs -12.5
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills -14.5, O/U 44.5
Here’s another large spread I won’t shy away from, because the home favorites are highly motivated in the final legs of the AFC playoff race. Buffalo just bested New England 33-21 over the weekend (in Foxboro), reclaiming control of the AFC East and moving into third in the NFL in scoring. Josh Allen looks like an MVP candidate again, everybody. Plus, now he gets to feast on Atlanta’s secondary, which ranks in the bottom-third in the league in passing yards allowed (244/game) and 28th in passing TDs surrendered (1.9/game). The Bills, meanwhile, rank first in passing defense, surrendering just 173.1 air yards and 0.7 passing TDs per game. Buy a point and enjoy the ride.
PICK: Bills -14.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team +3.5, O/U 46.5
Philly’s gotta be the play here—the Eagles (8-7) are in position to land one of the three Wild Card spots in the NFC Playoffs, while WFT (6-9) is barely hanging on to the bubble. The Eagles have taken care of business three weeks in a row, putting up 31.3 points per game across those three wins. Meanwhile, WFT has three consecutive losses, and an average losing margin of 19.6 points in that span. Philly beat Washington by a 10-spot two weeks ago, and should be able to replicate that success in the rematch this weekend. Four points seems generous.
PICK: Eagles -3.5
New York Giants at Chicago Bears -6, O/U 37.5
I saved the worst game of the 1:00 slate for last! This could be a quarterback showdown between Chicago’s Nick Foles and New York’s Mike Glennon —how riveting! Both these squads are just going through the motions at this point, with head coaching changes all but assured at the end of their murky season-long waters. I’m going with the UNDER here—I doubt either offense will be very motivated to light it up, and these defenses still have some semblance of pride. But do yourself a favor and don’t bet or watch this game.
PICK: UNDER 37.5
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans -3.5, O/U 40.5
Guest Pick, Matt Schmitto
Ok, I’m going a different route and using this game as an excuse to bet on a longshot future with just two weeks left in the season: Brian Flores +5000 (BetMGM) to win Coach of the Year. The Dolphins started the season 1-7, but have roared back to win seven straight and hold a 8-7 record heading into Week 17. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Dolphins a 32% of making the playoffs but they probably have to turn this into a 9-game win streak to make that happen. It’ll be a tough feat, to be sure, but not impossible. The spread against the Titans is just over a field goal. Then they conclude the season in Miami with the Patriots, a matchup in which the Dolphins are merely 2.5-point underdogs based on Week 18 lookahead lines at online sportsbooks. If the Dolphins do in fact get to 10 wins and make the playoffs, Brian Flores certainly has a case for Coach of the Year. It also helps that no one else’s 2021 resume is so impressive that they can’t be overlooked. Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals have fallen, and do voters really want to give this to Matt LaFleur as much as the odds suggest? The Packers pretty matched last season’s performance and most coaches would do the same thing if they had Aaron Rodgers behind center — anyways, back to Flores. At 5000 odds (2% implied probability), it’ll also be fairly easy to hedge betting on the Titans and Patriots moneylines if you want to mitigate your risk.
PICK: Brian Flores +5000 COY, BetMGM
Late Games (4:00 p.m. slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks -6.5, O/U 42.5
They may be out of the playoff race, but the Seahawks still have plenty of pride, and Russell Wilson finally looks like he’s recovered from his finger injury (finger injuries are real, people—take it from a volleyball player). Meanwhile, the Lions enjoyed their two December wins (vs. Minnesota and Arizona), and will likely refrain from trying too hard the rest of the way. Go with the more talented team from top to bottom, with a better head coach and home-field advantage.
PICK: Seahawks -6.5
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers -5.5, O/U 45
Yeah, I’m picking both LA teams’ moneylines this weekend. What of it!? Come at me, bros! Denver has been playing squads tough in the home stretch of the season, showcasing a pretty good defense and a reliable running game. The Chargers should win by six, but they are wildly inconsistent (Hell, they just lost to Houston!), and they’re just 3-4 ATS as a home favorite. So, yeah, give me the Bolts straight up at -241.
PICK: Chargers -250, DraftKings
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers -13, O/U 44
Here’s one I want nothing to do with whatsoever. San Fran has been playing pretty well, but just a nail-biter of a Thursday Night Football game to Tennessee. Houston has sucked, but just came out of nowhere to beat the Chargers. Now we’ve got a Jimmy Garoppolo thumb injury that leaves us completely befuddled as to whether he’ll suit up. If you held a proverbial gun to my head like a psycho, I’d go with the Niners. But I’m ambivalent, to say the least. At least we checked a few big words off our vocabulary checklist for the week!
PICK: Pass
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints -6.5, O/U 38.5
Guest Pick, Matt Schmitto
The Saints roster was depleted by a COVID-19 outbreak last week, which was more than apparent watching them Monday night. They weren’t even competitive with the Dolphins, who dominated them 20-3. The good news for Saints fans is Ian Book won’t be playing quarterback this Sunday. The bad news is the Saints offense is still terribly stagnant. After beginning the season 5-2, the best the Saints can do now is push their pre-season projected win total by finishing 9-8. With the Panthers and Falcons awaiting, that’s plenty manageable. However, I still don’t think a team that is next-to-last in yards per game should be laying 6.5 points to Carolina.
PICK: Panthers +6.5
Sunday and Monday Night Football Picks
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers -6.5, O/U 47.5
The Packers (12-3) were the first team in the NFL to clinch a 2021 playoff spot, and it’s mostly thanks to reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and his Hall-of-Fame level of connection with wideout Davante Adams. But let’s not forget that these Packers have had some nail-biters in December, winning by just one over backup QB Tyler Huntley in Week 15, and then by just two over Cleveland last weekend despite four Baker Mayfield interceptions. Oh, and Minnesota was the last team to hand Green Bay a loss, via a 34-31 shootout on November 21! The Packers have allowed an average of 28.8 points since that game, forcing Rodgers to save the day every game like they do seemingly every year. I think Green Bay will win this game, but I’d take Minnesota and the points if I had to pick a spread. I’d also be all about the OVER—these teams have high-functioning offenses with below-average defenses, and they combined to score 65 points when they last met.
PICK: Vikings +6.5, OVER 47.5
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers +3, O/U 41
Who even knows with these two teams? Ben Roethlisberger and Baker Mayfield have had down years—Big Ben’s probably going to retire, and Baker’s likely headed for multiple surgeries if I had to guess—and both seven-win squads are hovering about four spots back on the postseason bubble. I’d probably go with the Browns, who are 4-3 ATS on the road while Pittsburgh is 3-5 ATS at home. But I wouldn’t be very excited to have any stake in this contest.
PICK: Browns -3, OVER 41
Imagn