NFL Week 3 Betting Lines and Picks: Sportsbooks, Bettors React to Injuries
NFL Week 2 came and went, but not before dropping off a plethora of season and line-changing injuries ahead of Week 3. It wasn’t just injuries that were plentiful, but also points. Overs went 10-6 for the second week in a row, hitting at a 62.5% clip for the year. Now NFL Week 3 betting lines are officially out at online sportsbooks, and as avid NFL bettors know, it’s best not to sit on your hands once NFL odds are available.
Steelers bettors can attest. Per ScoresAndOdds, Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point favorite during the offseason but closed as 7-point favorites on Sunday. Early bettors who grabbed the Steelers’ opening line won their bets, while the rest of the Pittsburgh betting crowd fell short. This line also provided a solid middle opportunity for bettors who took Pittsburgh -4.5 and Broncos +7.
Similarly, in Week 1 the Titans opened as 1.5-point underdogs before closing as 3.5-point favorites in Denver. The final score? Tennessee 16-14.
With that said, let’s take a look at all of the NFL Week 3 betting lines, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, before breaking down injuries, possible betting angles, and our favorite early NFL Week 3 picks.
NFL Week 3 Betting Lines and Picks
These NFL Odds are accurate as of 5 pm ET Monday, Sept. 21, 2020. All odds are subject to change.
- Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5, O/U 47
- Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons -3.5, O/U 47.5
- Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles -6.5, O/U 46
- Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5, O/U 44.5
- Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots -6.5, O/U 47.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills -2.5, O/U 47.5
- San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants +4, O/U 40.5
- Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings +2.5, O/U 47
- Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns -7, O/U 44.5
- Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers -7.5, O/U 44
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos +6, O/U 43.5
- New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts -10, O/U 43.5
- Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks -4.5, O/U 55.5
- Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals -6, O/U 54.5
- Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints -4.5, O/U 51.5
- Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens -3, O/U 53.5
Week 2 Injuries Impact NFL Week 3 Betting
Injuries continued to pile on for the San Francisco 49ers, who were already without George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. On Sunday, head coach Kyle Shanahan lost his starting running back, starting quarterback, and star defensive end. Running back Raheem Mostert and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered only sprains but Bosa will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.
The 49ers weren’t the only team to take a beating. So, too, did the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos lost Von Miller ahead of Week 1, only to lose their starting quarterback and top receiver two weeks later against the Steelers. On Monday, MRIs showed that Broncos’ no. 1 receiver Courtland Sutton tore his ACL, leaving the Broncos receiving corps thin for backup QB Jeff Driskel as he fills in for second-year quarterback Drew Lock, who is out for two to six weeks with an AC sprain.
Other notable injuries were suffered by 2020’s consensus top fantasy draft picks, running backs Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. Barkley joins the long list of ACL casualties, while McCaffrey will be sidelined 4-6 week with the dreaded high-ankle sprain. That ankle sprain will affect McCaffrey’s play and the Panthers’ season outlook even when he returns, but right now we’re only concerned about their Week 3 matchup, which is on the road as 7.5-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers. More on that shortly.
The severity of injuries to the league’s top wide receivers is unclear. Julio Jones and Davante Adams are both listed as questionable after hobbling through their games on Sunday. Adams was given most of the second half off thanks to the Packers offense sprinting to a comfortable lead over the Lions. Speaking on his injury, head coach Matt LaFleur said, “I know he wanted to go back in the game, I just told him, ‘Let’s see how these next few series go and see if we need you,” so Adams should be ready to play in the Sunday night game against the Saints. Jones was oddly quiet against a vulnerable Cowboys defense — another nagging hamstring injury for the All-Pro wideout might explain the lackluster performance. But after choking away their win, the Falcons are 0-2, head coach Dan Quinn is on the hot seat, and Jones’ presence is needed if they want to avoid a premature exit from the playoff conversation. Like Jones, the injury bug has returned for Will Fuller. For both Jones and Fuller, it wasn’t a matter of if they’d end up on the injury report at some point, but when and how severe. For now, both receivers aren’t in imminent danger of missing extended time, at least not yet. But they are worth keeping an eye on before making NFL Week 3 betting picks that involve either the Falcons or the Texans.
Early NFL Week 3 Betting Picks
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5, O/U 47
It looked like the Jaguars were doing everything in their power to tank ahead of the 2020 season, but second-year quarterback Gardner Minshew led them to a Week 1 win against the Colts and kept them within three against the Tennesse Titans on Sunday. The Jaguars are working in rookie “(player-popup #laviska-shenault)Laviska Shenault Jr more and more, both at running back and wide receiver. Shenault is a longshot rookie of the year candidate if he continues to see an increase in touches and the Jaguars continue to exceed expectations. They have a great opportunity to move to 2-1 this weekend against the Dolphins. Right now I lean with the magic of Minshew’s fu manchu rather than Fitzmagic himself.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons -3.5, O/U 47.5
The Falcons opened as 3-point favorites but the Week 3 line quickly moved to -3.5. Atlanta is desperate for a win, and Todd Gurley has a favorable matchup against a Chicago Bears defense that is missing their best run stopper, nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the season due to coronavirus concerns. With Julio Jones status up in the air, I’m sitting back on this one, but not for the reason you might think. Whether Jones is out or not doesn’t change the fact that I think the Falcons cover this spread. However, I don’t see the line moving much beyond this. But if Jones is ruled out, I expect bettors to overreact to the news, which might give us another chance to bet on the Falcons -3.
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles -6.5, O/U 46
My guess is that people are bit more enamored by Joe Burrow than they should be. Then again, even Patrick Mahomes struggled against that Chargers defense, and Burrow was formidable against the Browns. Regardless, the Bengals offensive line is a serious concern and won’t be putting Burrow in position for much success during his rookie season. The Eagles are 0-2 after bad losses to both the Washington Football Team and the Rams, yet they’re still nearly a touchdown favorite hosting Cincinnati. I like betting on coaches who make +EV decisions such as Doug Pederson. I expect Pederson to have the Eagles fully prepared to take care of Burrow in his first NFL road trip outside of Ohio.
NFL Betting Pick: Eagles -6.5
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5, O/U 44.5
The Texans are bad, and Bill O’Brien is worse. Betting big against the Texans early and often was on my mind before the season started. Thus far the strategy has worked out, but I’m hesitant to continue fading the Texans in this spot. The Steelers defense should have their way with the Texans, but Ben Roethlisberger looked rusty against both the Giants and Broncos. If forced to choose, I’m taking the Under in this spot but the reality is, I probably won’t have a position on this game at all.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots -6.5, O/U 47.5
I’m writing this Monday night as the Raiders are in the process of pulling off a surprising upset against the Saints. Given their performance, I expect this spread to fall at least a half-point. Belichick will focus on slowing down Darren Waller, who has had a career game against the Saints. Expect a lot of running in this one between two teams that are 26th and 32nd in seconds/play, per GridironIQ, which should set up well for the Under against this relatively high point total.
NFL Betting Pick: Under 47.5
Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills -2.5, O/U 47.5
The Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen are getting plenty of hype after a 2-0 start, as Allen has posted some stellar numbers through the air and on the ground. The Bills are in great shape to win a weak AFC East division, but the Allen MVP talk is a bit premature considering their first two games were against the Jets and Dolphins, neither of which they beat decisively. In a typical season, I’d be happy to take the Rams in this spot, but they won’t be sticking around on the East Coast after their win in Philadelphia due to the coronavirus protocols. Making consecutive West Coast-to-East Coast road trips won’t be easy. Then again, the Bills won’t be playing in front of a hostile Bills Mafia, so maybe all things are equal? I lean with the Rams, but I’ll be staying away from the game more likely than not.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants +4.5, O/U 40.5
Injuries have depleted the 49ers, and an already-bad Giants team is now without their best player. I’m not confident in this approach, but I lean with the team who is merely missing their running back rather than the football team that is missing, well, their football team.
NFL Betting Pick: Giants +4.5
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings +2.5, O/U 47
Who would have thought the Vikings would be nearly 3-point home underdogs this early in the season? They’re playing so bad it’s tough to disagree with the oddsmakers. I’m keeping my eye on Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown. If he’s a go, then I’m a go on Titans -2.5.
Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns -7, O/U 44.5
In Week 2, just seven days after upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles, the Washington Football Team looked more like the team that we expected to see in Week 1. The Cleveland Browns took to Thursday Night Football, controlling most of the game with the Bengals. They had their hiccups and allowed a touchdown with 3 minutes left for a backdoor cover, but their win is nothing to write home about. I’m staying away from betting the Browns until further notice. This line opened Browns -6 before reaching -7.5 Monday morning, but it looks like sharps bought the Football Team at that number and moved it back to -7.
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers -7.5, O/U 43.5
The Chargers started rookie Justin Herbert against the Kansas City Chiefs, and it nearly worked out.. He completed 22-of-33 passes for 311 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Herbert, in his first NFL start, had a better completion percentage, more yards, and better passer rating than defending Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes. In fact, Herbert is the first player to throw and run for a TD in the first half of their NFL debut since 1954. Still, it wasn’t enough to get the W. We’ve already discussed the injury problems for the Carolina Panthers, who now try their best to replace Christian McCaffrey with Mike Davis. This is again a spot where bettors are likely to overreact to a high-profile running back injury. The Panthers have a game of film on Herbert, and the Panthers new OC Joe Brady will be calling plays without McCaffrey, which means more passes for Teddy Bridgewater. Brady brings with him one of the more innovative playbooks in the NFL after helping LSU win a national championship. I’m excited to see what his play-calling looks like without McCaffrey in the backfield to hand the ball off to, and I’m happy to take 7.5 points, up from 6.5, and fade the public. According to ScoresAndOdds, 64% of bettors are backing the Chargers while 73% are on the Under.
NFL Betting Picks: Panthers +7.5 & Over 43.5
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts -10.5, O/U 43.5
The Colts aren’t one of the best teams in the NFL, yet this is the largest spread we’ve seen this season. So what oddsmakers are saying is that the Jets are the worst team in the NFL. The Jets failed to cover in each of their first two games and were destroyed by the 49ers, who were far from healthy. The Colts looked just fine despite losing Marlon Mack in their opening game. Rookie RB Jonathan Taylor took over the role of lead back in both the running and passing game and didn’t look back, which bodes well for Phillip Rivers, who loves checking down to his running backs. If anything, I’m inclined to take the 10.5 points with the Jets.
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks -4.5, O/U 55.5
Russell Wilson picked up where he left off last season, looking like the NFC’s best quarterback. He leads the league with 9 touchdown passes and continues to thrive while being pressured in the pocket. His lone interception was off of Greg Olsen hands, a pass that should have clearly been caught. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are lucky not to be 0-2 right now, thanks to a miraculous comeback against the Falcons. The Cowboys offensive line, dealing with multiple injuries, has been a major concern through two games. I lean toward the Seahawks but want to wait to see if the Cowboys return any linemen or not. What I am willing to bet on right now is Under 55.5. Both teams have turned to the pass more than you’d expect, but that can largely be attributed to playing catch-up for much of the first two weeks. The Seahawks ran the ball 46% of the time in 2019, one of the highest clips in the NFL. This year they’re only running 33% of the time. Cowboys have played from behind in something like 115 of 120 minutes of football so far. Expect the teams to slow things down this week. This is my favorite pick of the week.
NFL Betting Picks: Under 55.5
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals -6, O/U 54.5
The Arizona Cardinals look like the league’s most improved team in Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingbury’s second year in the NFL. The Lions are 0-2 but are likely to return wideout Kenny Golladay for his 2020 debut, which should give the offense a notable boost. I like the Over in this spot but I’m waiting for confirmation that Golladay will play
Check back on Thursday, Sunday and Monday for in-depth NFL betting previews for primetime games.
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