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Turning the NFL Week 4 Injury Report Into A Longshot Parlay

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2024-09-29 13:38:15

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Sunday’s Week 4 NFL slate features 13 games, beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET with 8 games on the East Coast. The West Coast window has 4 games on tap in the middle of the afternoon, before we get to the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.

New at RotoGrinders this year, we will be doing a complete Sunday slate injury breakdown, including news, analysis, and potential betting angles for each game. Some of the largest edges in NFL betting are a result of key players being sidelined due to injury – and a lot of those key injuries are on the defensive side of the ball or the offensive line, which are two overlooked areas of research for most NFL fans and bettors.

At the bottom of this article, we will have a weekly longshot parlay to see if we can take this injury information and turn it into a nice payday. Our Week 2 parlay went 12-for-14, with Zach Charbonnet coming up 2 yards short for us, and Bryce Young having the worst weekend of any quarterback in the NFL. Our Week 3 parlay went 9-for-13 and had legs for much of the afternoon. This week’s 13-leg parlay comes to +2311.

Below, we have relevant injury news and analysis for each Week 4 Sunday NFL game!

NFL Week 4 Injury Report

As a disclaimer, inactive reports come out 90 minutes prior to kickoff for each NFL game, so we often don’t know a player’s final status until shortly before the game begins. This article is accurate as of Saturday afternoon. If looking for any last-minute injury updates or analysis, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Saints have one of the most frightening injury reports of any team in the NFL heading into Week 4. They will be missing a pair of starting offensive linemen, including All-Pro starting center Erik McCoy. McCoy’s likely replacement, Shane Lemieux, is in his first year playing center and was only activated off of the practice squad this week. WR Chris Olave left practice with a hamstring injury on Friday and seems genuinely at risk of missing Sunday’s tilt in Atlanta. Considering that WR AT Perry has already been ruled out and that WR Cedrick Wilson didn’t practice on Friday due to an ankle injury, it seems highly probable that WR Mason Tipton sees an expanded role in the team’s offense. Tipton has 4.3 speed and repeatedly burned the Philadelphia secondary unit in Week 3. He has game-changing wheels and is a strong route runner. He’s currently +425 to score a touchdown. If Olave is ruled out, and we get a Tipton receiving yards line, ladders are in play.

Atlanta’s big injury news is on the offensive line. They will be without their starting RT Kaleb McGary and starting C Drew Dalman in Week 4. These are significant losses for the Falcons.

Saints

Falcons

LEAN: UNDER 41.5 (-115)

Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears

The Rams pulled off an improbable come-from-behind victory in Week 3, but the reality is that this is still one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL. This weekend, they will once again be without the entire left side of their offensive line, their top-2 wide receivers, and a pair of extremely talented players in the secondary unit.

Chicago’s most notable absence is starting RG Ryan Bates. He didn’t allow a single pressure in Week 1, but he hasn’t been on the field since that point. Matt Pryor and Nate Davis have filled in for Bates the past couple of weeks, with a slight drop off in production. The good news for the Bears is that they look like they will have WR Keenan Allen back on the field this weekend. He has a great matchup against a weak Los Angeles secondary unit.

Rams

Bears

LEAN: Bears Moneyline (-148)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

Minnesota’s injury report came out to be much better than expected in Week 4. They will get WR Jordan Addison and EDGE Dallas Turner back on the field for this weekend’s key divisional matchup. LB Ivan Pace is a significant loss, but the team was able to play well defensively without him last week, allowing only 7 points against the Texans.

Green Bay could be in some trouble. The Packers should get star QB Jordan Love back on the field for Sunday’s action, but they will be without starting RG Jordan Morgan, CB Carrington Valentine, and potentially CB Jaire Alexander. If Alexander is unable to suit up, Green Bay’s aggressive style of play on defense could come back to hurt them, facing a very talented group of Minnesota pass catchers. Offensively, Green Bay is likely to try to get the ball out quickly, which favors Jayden Reed in a matchup against a blitz-heavy Minnesota defense.

Vikings

Packers

LEAN: Jayden Reed OVER 3.5 Receptions (-160)

Steelers vs. Colts

Pittsburgh is undefeated heading into Week 4, but make no mistake – their offense has struggled mightily so far this fall. The league average offensive success rate so far in 2024 is 43.2%. Pittsburgh’s offense had a 38.2% success rate in their season opener and a 31.8% success rate in Week 2. They only barely eclipsed the league average (45.5%) in Week 3, at home, and facing an extremely hobbled Chargers defense. This weekend, the Steelers will once again be without starting LG Isaac Seumalo and RT Troy Fautanu. Further complicating matters, RB Jaylen Warren and star EDGE Alex Highsmith have also been ruled out. Mike Tomlin seemingly always finds a way to keep his group competitive, but these are big losses. Expect RB Najee Harris to see a significant workload on the ground against a weak Indianapolis run defense on Sunday.

As banged up as the Steelers are heading into this matchup, the Colts might be in even worse shape. Indianapolis has already ruled out 5 defensive starters, including their top-2 cornerbacks and 3 of their top defensive linemen. EDGE Tyquan Lewis, who leads the team in quarterback pressures in 2024, is also listed as questionable after not practicing on Friday – he would be the 6th defensive starter ruled out for the Colts. Indianapolis also has a pair of starting offensive linemen listed as questionable. Be sure to keep an eye out for inactive reports in this contest.

Steelers

Colts

LEAN: Najee Harris Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets

The Broncos had a rough week in terms of injuries, losing starting RT Mike McGlinchey, EDGE Baron Browning, and LB Alex Singleton all to injured reserve. Singleton is a particularly noteworthy loss. He leads Denver in tackles (31) so far in 2024. No other member of the defense has more than 21 tackles.

The Jets aren’t completely healthy either. They will be without their starting RT Morgan Moses in addition to a trio of notable losses on the defensive side of the ball. The silver lining for New York is that they have been playing well without LB CJ Mosley, EDGE Haason Reddick, and EDGE Jermaine Johnson. This group should be fine on Sunday, hosting an inexperienced rookie quarterback.

Broncos

Jets

LEAN: Breece Hall Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-150)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia has some big names to watch ahead of kickoff in Week 4. Star RT Lane Johnson is trying to clear concussion protocol after playing only 18 snaps in Week 3 before exiting with the injury. WR AJ Brown has missed back-to-back games, but he could be back on the field just in time to replace WR DeVonta Smith, who suffered a concussion last weekend against the Saints. If Brown is unable to go, the Eagles are going to be painfully thin in the wide receiver room, with WR Britain Covey, a strong alternative option in the slot, already on injured reserve.

Tampa Bay looks like they will be getting back their starting RT Luke Goedeke and star DT Vita Vea after both players missed last weekend’s loss to the Broncos. Though they are big additions, the Buccaneers will still be hurting in the secondary, with S Antoine Winfield ruled out once again. Winfield is one of the most talented safeties in the NFL.

Eagles

Buccaneers

LEAN: Baker Mayfield OVER 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers

Cincinnati’s defensive line is in poor shape once again heading into Week 4. The Bengals have already allowed 90+ rushing yards to 2 separate running backs this fall and will be without DT Sheldon Rankins, DT BJ Hill, and DT McKinnley Jackson on Sunday. Losing starting RT Trent Brown means that they will be starting rookie 1st-round pick Amarius Mims this weekend. Brown allowed a 4.9% pressure rate in 2023. Mims allowed a 7.4% pressure rate in Week 3 after Brown got hurt.

Carolina finally earned a win in Week 3, beating Las Vegas on the road. Unfortunately, they have a bleak outlook this week, with starting LG Damien Lewis already ruled out and starting RG Robert Hunt legitimately questionable after not finishing practice on Friday. The Panthers also lost starting S Jordan Fuller to injured reserve this past week, who is a major asset defending the run. Between the loss of Fuller and star DT Derrick Brown, this defense isn’t in great shape.

Bengals

Panthers

LEAN: Zack Moss Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

Jacksonville is 1 of 3 teams still looking for their first win in 2024, and they have another tough task in front of them in Week 4, with a number of key pieces questionable or already ruled out for Sunday. WR Gabe Davis is 2nd on the team in receiving yards this season. TE Evan Engram is one of the best receivers at his position in the entire league. LB Foyesade Oluokun leads all Jaguars defenders in tackles this fall and has been elite in coverage. LB Devin Lloyd is 2nd on Jacksonville’s defense in tackles and has been excellent against the run. CB Jarrian Jones and S Darnell Savage would only further reduce the talent in this secondary unit, which is already missing star CB Tyson Campbell. Playing aggressive man coverage with this many potential missing pieces in the secondary unit is a dangerous game.

Houston’s biggest absence this week is S Jimmie Ward, who is one of the best run defenders in the NFL at his position. Through 3 games, he ranks 7th out of 69 safeties in run defense grade, per PFF. He has played at least 45 snaps in every game this season for the Texans, making him a notable loss. Houston is still playing without DT Kurt Hinish and LB Christian Harris as well, both of whom began the year on injured reserve. Harris ranked 2nd on the team in tackles in 2023.

Jaguars

Texans

LEAN: Over 44.5 (-110)

Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals

DE Clelin Ferrell had a sack in each of Washington’s first 2 games this year, but he didn’t play in Week 3 and will miss this weekend’s contest as well. He’s a notable loss for this defense, but the Commanders are relatively healthy overall, with RB Austin Ekeler being the only other player on the team ruled out. Expect to see a heavy dose of Brian Robinson on the ground, with Jayden Daniels likely to find some room to run as well in this contest against an injury-depleted Arizona defense.

The Cardinals are up to 6 notable players on injured reserve, including their starting RT Jonah Williams and 3 defensive starters. In Week 4, Arizona will also be without star TE Trey McBride. WR Michael Wilson is a candidate to see a bigger role in the offense in this matchup.

Commanders

Cardinals

LEAN: OVER 49 (-108)

New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers

New England’s season started on a high note with an upset win on the road in Cincinnati, but they are unlikely to win many more games in 2024, due in large part to health. They opened the season without star DT Christian Barmore, who had 8.5 sacks in 2023 and was excellent against the run. Then they lost their primary on-field communicator, LB Ja’Whaun Bentley to season-ending injured reserve. The Patriots’ defense ranked 27th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate last week with Bentley not on the field. The Patriots’ defense is likely to struggle mightily going forward.

San Francisco received some good news on the injury front this week, with TE George Kittle returning to action and WR Deebo Samuel returning to practice after missing Week 3. However, they also have some more concerning news, with LT Trent Williams, DT Jordan Elliott, and S Talanoa Hufanga each listed as questionable heading into the weekend. The team is still without RB Christian McCaffrey and starting RG Jon Feliciano as well. Be sure to monitor this game for inactives 90 minutes before kickoff. WR Brandon Aiyuk could be in for another big target share if Samuel is inactive for the second week in a row.

Patriots

49ers

LEAN: Brock Purdy OVER 20.5 Completions (-114)

Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Cleveland is absolutely ravaged by injuries. After getting starting LT Jedrick Wills back for Week 3, he’s back on the injury report for Week 4 and already ruled out. Starting RT Jack Conklin appeared to be nearing a return last weekend but still hasn’t played in 2024. Making matters worse, the Browns lost starting RG Wyatt Teller to injured reserve this week, leaving only 2 of their optimal 5 starters on the line healthy. The Browns have their All-Pro RB Nick Chubb and starting TE David Njoku also ruled out for Week 4. Defensively, they continue to be without DT Maurice Hurst and S Juan Thornhill, who are key contributors for this unit. LB Jordan Hicks has been stout against the run early this fall and would be another significant loss for Cleveland if he can’t play on Sunday.

Las Vegas has their own issues to worry about, with arguably their most talented players (WR Davante Adams and EDGE Maxx Crosby) ruled out. They are also likely to be without starting RT Thayer Munford, who has allowed only a 3.4% pressure rate to begin the new campaign. His backup allowed a ghastly 10.2% pressure rate in Week 3 after Munford left the game. The absence of Crosby and DE Malcolm Koonce means the Raiders are likely to continue to struggle getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They have ranked dead last out of 32 NFL teams in defensive pressure rate in consecutive weeks, even with Crosby on the field.

Browns

Raiders

LEAN: Browns Moneyline (-127)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Other than the running back room, Kansas City remains relatively healthy heading into Week 4. EDGE Mike Danna ranks 4th on the team in defensive pressures so far in 2024, making him a noticeable absence. Expect Carson Steele to continue dominating touches with RB Isiah Pacheco and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire on injured reserve.

The Chargers are likely to be very shorthanded this weekend. Even if QB Justin Herbert plays, Los Angeles is unlikely to have both of their starting tackles on the offensive line. Defensively, they will be without EDGE Joey Bosa, LB Junior Carlson, and S Derwin James, all of whom are starters. CB Ja’Sir Taylor and CB Kristian Fulton are two additional starters listed as questionable. Taylor played only 22 snaps in Week 3 due to injury and appears legitimately at risk of not playing Week 4.

Chiefs

Chargers

LEAN: UNDER 40 (-108)

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

There are no new injuries for Buffalo this week, but they remain without 2 of their starting linebackers, including All-Pro Matt Milano. Starting slot cornerback Taron Johnson remains out as well. Johnson played an NFL-high 474 coverage snaps in the slot in 2023 and is an excellent run defender. This weekend’s matchup against the Ravens is by far the toughest test that the Bills defense has faced so far in 2024.

Baltimore is likely to be without starting LG Andrew Vorhees, but that could actually be a positive for them. Veteran Patrick Mekari will start at LG, which is an upgrade in reliability at the position.

Bills

Ravens

LEAN: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)

NFL Week 4 – Longshot Injury Report 13-Leg Parlay

Odds = +2311 (DraftKings)

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom