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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 15 - Page 5

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-15 03:53:55

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Kansas City at Oakland

Kansas City Chiefs Oakland Raiders
Chiefs Raiders
Sun – 4:05PM ET O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-4 41 22.5 4 41 18.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 26.4 7 24 8 Offense 20.3 26 27 4
Defense 17.2 4 19 16 Defense 25.9 23 23 12
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Oakland 27 17 27 12 Kansas City 15 12 18 1
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Bowe 91 6.8 6.0 5.0 Moore 74 7.4
Avery 65 4.9 4.3 2.0 Streater 76 5.8 7.7 10.0
McCluster 72 5.7 7.0 5.0 Holmes 29 4.1 7.7 7.0
Fasano 30 3.8 5.0 Rivera 48 3.7 4.3 8.0

Kansas City Chiefs

KC got back to their winning ways in Week 14 by smacking the Redskins on the road in a game where Jamaal Charles accounted for 144 yards and 2 scores. Charles has been living up to his high-priced hype in recent weeks, with huge performances in three consecutive games.

He’ll have an average matchup against an Oakland defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in rush defense on PFF and ranks 17th vs. RB’s in fantasy points allowed on the season. Their last 5 weeks and last 3 weeks splits are right around that middle-of-the-pack range as well for FP-allowed to backs. Where Charles may be able to have an added impact this weekend is in the passing game, and in the Week 6 matchup between these teams he caught 5 balls for 50 yards while rushing for 93 more and scoring twice.

The passing game for Kansas City slowed down in Week 14 after 3 consecutive games with Alex Smith hitting value (in all three of their losses). As has been evident since Alex Smith became a starter, he’s not going to throw the ball all that often when his team has the lead. He’s a game manager whose fantasy relevancy depends on the Chiefs urgency to score points, and in a game where the Chiefs are 4 point favorites against the Raiders, it’s hard to imagine him needing to throw too much in Week 15. If he does need to throw though, the matchup is prime and the Raiders have been decimated by quarterbacks in recent weeks, including allowing a 20+ FP game to Geno Smith in Week 14. In the last three weeks, they’re allowing the 9th most FPPG to opposing QBs.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders got a huge contribution from Marcel Reece in Week 14 in a spot start with both Rashad Jennings and Darren McFadden sitting on the sidelines. Reece went for 123 rush yards and a score to go along with 2 receptions for 38 yards but unfortunately will return to his third down role in Week 15 with the return of Jennings. Jennings will get the bulk of carries against a Chiefs defense that has been gashed by three opposing running games breaking 100+ yards over their last five games. A big part of that has been the missing Justin Houston who is questionable to return this weekend and his presence may be one of those subtle things to watch for that can impact both the rushing and passing impact in Oakland’s offense.

Houston is still tied for 6th in the NFL in sacks despite sitting each of the Chiefs last three games and that potential return should hurt the value of Matt McGloin, the rookie from Penn State who has looked pretty solid in his 4 starts for Oakland. McGloin has 19.6, 14.0, 9.1 and 18.8 fantasy points in those four games despite not having WR#1 Denarius Moore and RB#1 Darren McFadden for much of that span. Moore is expected to return in Week 15 against a Kansas City secondary that has really struggled over the last month. They’ve allowed 9 passing touchdowns in the last month and last week was the first time in that span where an opposing QB hasn’t thrown for at least 300 yards. But going back to Moore, he’s only played once with McGloin and here was the target breakdown in that game:

Streater (8 targets), Moore (6 targets), Holmes (3 targets), Rivera (6 targets)

It’s a very small sample size but Streater just seems to fit well with McGloin’s style of play and it’s unlikely that his targets will take a huge hit in Week 15 despite the return of Moore.

KC @ OAK – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Green Bay at Dallas

Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys
Packers Cowboys
Sun – 4:25PM ET AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
7 48.5 20.75 -7 48.5 27.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 24.3 11 9 10 Offense 27.5 3 15 24
Defense 25.1 20 21 25 Defense 26.8 26 32 28
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Dallas 32 32 22 28 Green Bay 20 23 21 19
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Nelson 96 7.5 5.0 4.0 Bryant 119 9.1 9.7 4.0
Jones 67 6.1 7.3 5.0 Williams 61 4.7 3.7 3.0
Boykin 59 4.6 5.3 3.0 Austin 40 5.0 4.0 4.0
Quarless 37 2.8 4.0 7.0 Witten 85 6.5 4.3 3.0

Green Bay Packers

With news that Aaron Rodgers won’t play, it leaves the starting QB job to Matt Flynn again in Week 15. He’ll get to face a Dallas defense that allowed their second game this season where you could have won a lot of tournaments by stacking the opposing offense (hope that makes sense, it sounded better in my head). Basically, the Saints torched them in every facet of the game in Week 10 and the Bears did so in Week 14. The Cowboys have now allowed 10 passing touchdowns in their last three games to go along with 667 passing yards and just 1 INT. Josh McCown torched them for a ridiculous 39.5 fantasy points on MNF last weekend, meaning Flynn has to be in the conversation against this defense. Flynn played marginally in Week 14 while throwing for around 250 yards and a score with an INT as well, but he’s really taken away a lot of value from the Green Bay receiving corps. In three games with Flynn as the starter, no wide receiver has scored more than 14.8 fantasy points and last weekend Jones, Nelson and Boykin saw 5,4 and 3 targets respectively. In fact, it was TE Andrew Quarless who got the majority of looks at 7 targets and he reeled in 6 balls for 66 yards and a score. Quarless has a terrific matchup this weekend against a Cowboys defense that ranks 28th in the NFL vs. tight ends on the year and 24th in terms of FPPG-allowed over the last 3 weeks.

The ground game for Green Bay has the best matchup though, and Eddie Lacy is expected to be ready to roll in Week 15 against Dallas. Look at the aggregate stats for all opposing running backs, by week, over the last four games against DAL.

To summarize, it’s 9 total touchdowns to go along with 634 rushing yards and 229 receiving yards IN FOUR GAMES. That’s an embarrassment and Lacy has been more involved in the passing game recently as well with 5 targets in Week 14. Dallas’ rush defense has dropped all the way to 29th on PFF’s rush stop ratings and if Green Bay can keep this game close then Lacy has the ability to be the 4th running back in 5 weeks to torch the Cowboys. It’s also worth looking at James Starks. With Lacy a bit banged up, it’s likely that Starks sees some added carries and the Cowboys have proven they’re inept enough to allow multiple backs to have huge games.

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas will need to bounce back and take care of business against the Rodgers-less Packers in Week 15. Tony Romo threw for just 103 yards (with 3 TDs) in Week 14 and it’s now been 5 weeks since he topped 300 passing yards. He’ll have a juicy matchup at home against a Green Bay defense rankings 12th worst vs. QBs on the season and 10th worst over the last 5 weeks. In that 5 week span they’ve allowed 10 passing touchdowns and 3 100+ yard receivers. Victor Cruz, Riley Cooper and Calvin Johnson were all able to break free for 100+ yards since Week 10. GB’s defense ranks 8th worst on PFF’s pass coverage ratings and Dez will likely lineup across from Sam Shields, who hasn’t allowed a receiving touchdown to his man in coverage since Week 6 and considering how reliant Dez has been on red zone looks, that has to be concerning. That may lead to more looks inside the 20 for Jason Witten, who has 14 red zone targets on the season compared to 15 for Dez.

The rushing game for Dallas has been stellar over the last few weeks, and DeMarco Murray has 210 rushing yards with 3 TDs over the last two games. Green Bay’s rush stop ratings on PFF come out to 8th worst in the NFL and 4 of the last 6 backs they’ve faced have broken 100+ yards. They’re dead last against the run over the last 3 weeks, in terms of FPPG-allowed, and 4th worst over the last 5 weeks. As 7 point home favorites, the Cowboys should be protecting a lead in this one and getting Murray 18-20 touches. In this matchup, that should be more than sufficient for a huge performance.

GB @ DAL – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Cincinnati Bengals Pittsburgh Steelers
Bengals Steelers
Sun – 8:30PM ET Heinz Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-2.5 40.5 21.5 2.5 40.5 19
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.7 9 12 14 Offense 22.4 19 7 31
Defense 18.8 6 8 5 Defense 24.0 15 7 24
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Pittsburgh 9 18 10 15 Cincinnati 12 5 12 9
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Green 139 10.6 7.5 8.0 Brown 132 10.0 9.0 9.0
Sanu 66 5.0 3.0 4.0 Sanders 100 7.7 8.0 6.0
Jones 57 4.5 3.5 4.0 Wheaton 13 1.4 0.3 1.0
Gresham 59 4.8 3.0 5.0 Miller 68 6.5 6.3 4.0

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have found a renewed focus on running the football in recent weeks and it’s done wonders to their offensive balance. They’ve gone over 40 in 2 of their last three games while running the football on 54.7% of their plays. Bernard and the Law Firm have combined for over 100 yards in each of those games and this week they’ll face a defense that has struggled at times in stopping the rush. It seemed as if some of the holes in the Pittsburgh front seven had been filled, holding 5 straight RB1’s to under 60 rushing yards, but last week Daniel Thomas stepped in behind a banged up Dolphins O-Line and ran for over 100 yards and a score against the Steelers. He averaged a whopping 7.06 yards per carry on 16 touches and if the Bengals can commit to the ground game again they should be able to find success with BJGE and Bernard as well as opening up the passing game for Dalton and company. A big reason for the Steelers struggles may be with Brett Keisel’s injury. He sat out in Week 14 and has already been ruled out for this game. Keisel is the 15th best defensive end in terms of run-stopping ratings on ProFootballFocus, and his absence is sure to open up some running gaps for the Bengals.

Through the air, A.J. Green should be able to exploit Ike Taylor on the outside early and often. Taylor has struggled immensely this season and continues to rate out as the worst coverage corner in football in PFF’s ratings system. Taylor will likely shadow Green heavily and has allowed 5 receiving touchdowns while he was the primary corner in coverage over the last four games. Last week he was thrown at just 4 times and allowed 3 receptions for 40 yards and a score. There’s no doubt that he is a weak spot in the Steelers secondary and Dalton/Green should be able to exploit that early and often. Last week the Steelers also really struggled against Charles Clay who reeled in 7 balls for 97 yards and 2 TDs. Dalton throws at both Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert fairly evenly, but Gresham brought in 5 receptions for 60 yards and a score in Week 14.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have now dropped two in a row and have all but eliminated themselves from the potential of a playoff birth in 2013. That shouldn’t stop them from wanting to derail the leader of the AFC North at home. It starts with Big Ben at the helm and he has a 4-game multi touchdown streak coming into Week 15. He’s scored no fewer than 16 fantasy points in that stretch and has two games over 20 FP with 1 over 30 as well. As 1.5 point underdogs at home, he should be throwing a lot but the matchup here is about as tough as it gets. Cincy ranks fourth in pass coverage on PFF and in the Week 2 matchup between these teams, Ben threw for just 251 yards and a score with an INT. In fact, in Roethlisberger’s last three matchups against the Bengals he’s thrown for just 1 TD in each and has an INT in every game. On the outside, the Steelers have a pretty solid corps of receivers led by Antonio Brown. Brown will line up against Adam Jones and Terrance Newman, but will most likely see the Pacman on the majority of snaps. Pacman has a negative coverage rating on PFF in each of his last three games and can be exploited by Brown who has 4 touchdowns and 435 receiving yards over his last four games.

CIN @ PIT – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Baltimore at Detroit

Baltimore Ravens Detroit Lions
Ravens Lions
Mon – 8:40PM ET Ford Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
6 48 21 -6 48 27
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 21.4 24 20 29 Offense 26.6 6 3 19
Defense 20.1 8 14 8 Defense 24.7 18 25 6
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Detroit 16 8 29 7 Baltimore 10 3 17 11
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Smith 111 8.5 6.3 5.0 Johnson 137 11.5 9.7 5.0
Jones 45 5.1 6.7 7.0 Burleson 38 6.5 5.3 5.0
Brown 60 5.5 4.7 11.0 Durham 73 5.5 5.3 3.0
Clark 52 4.3 3.0 Pettigrew 62 4.7 3.3 3.0

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens will head to Detroit on MNF, fighting for their playoff lives. They have a road game in Detroit this weekend, followed by a game at home vs. the Patriots in Week 16 so the next two weeks will tell us a lot about whether the Ravens will be in the mix to repeat. Last week their passing offense relied on Marlon Brown and Jacoby Jones, and in perfect time for this game against the Lions who have struggled in their secondary. Flacco was picked 3 times but he also threw for 245 and 3 scores in a huge come back effort. Brown had 7 grabs for 92 yards and a score from the slot and will line up with Dwight Bentley most often. Bentley ranks 66th out of 110 qualified corners on PFF and is more than exploitable for Brown. On the outside, Flacco will have the struggling Torrey Smith going up against Rashean Mathis who is positively rated on the season at RCB and could shut down a player that hasn’t really been able to figure it out this season with any consistency. The best matchup though goes to Jacoby Jones against the third string Jonte Green due to injuries to both Darius Slay and Chris Houston. This is a tremendous matchup for Jones and he can have a big game on Monday night (as he always seems to turn it on in prime time games as well).

The ground game for the Ravens will have some tough sledding, since the Lions hadn’t allowed an RB over 40 rushing yards since Week 5 before last week’s drumming by LeSean McCoy. But McCoy really exploded late in that game after Ziggy Ansah went down and his status is in question for Sunday’s game. If he isn’t able to go, Rice gets a slight bump but regardless he hasn’t been consistent enough against strong front sevens to trust in this game.

Detroit Lions

The Lions should get Reggie Bush back this weekend, which really only sends Joique Bell back to irrelevancy. Bush could find success against the Ravens though, especially at home, where he’s been much better on the season. The Ravens defense has also fallen off a bit in terms of stopping the run, allowing Toby Gerhart, Matt Forte and Le’Veon Bell to go for over 70 rushing yards each. Those aren’t huge numbers though and Bush does much of his damage in the passing game, which has been a strong suit for Baltimore’s defense. They’re allowing just 29.4 receiving yards per game to running backs on the season, but have allowed 24 receptions to RB’s over the last 5 weeks.

It really all starts in the air for the Lions though, and this Baltimore pass defense has been a shell of its former self. They’ve allowed 250+ passing yards and 2 TDs in each of the last two weeks and will need to find a way to stop the best receiver in the game in Calvin Johnson. A week ago, Cordarrelle Patterson was able to get over on the Baltimore defense in open space and broke for 141 yards and a score on just 5 receptions. Calvin will lineup across Jimmy Smith for the majority of snaps and Smith is the 27th ranked corner on PFF’s ratings. That’s not the ideal matchup, but Megatron has shown that there are very few players who can shut him down and Smith is good but not elite.

BAL @ DET – Daily Fantasy Relevant

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)