Sign In $

NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 17 - Page 4

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-28 21:44:28

grind%20down%20article%20faq

Green Bay at Chicago

Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears
Packers Bears
Sun – 1:00PM ET Soldier Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
** ** ** ** ** **
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.6 9 8 7 Offense 27.8 3 5 18
Defense 26.7 24 21 26 Defense 29.7 30 14 32
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Chicago 11 31 11 28 Green Bay 23 21 26 27
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Nelson 110 7.4 6.0 5.0 Marshall 153 10.3 10.0 9.0
Jones 86 6.6 8.0 12.0 Jeffery 142 9.4 7.7 9.0
Boykin 78 5.3 7.3 13.0 Bennett 44 2.7 3.0 3.0
Quarless 48 3.1 5.7 4.0 Bennett 95 6.2 6.7 8.0

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are going to be one of the most intriguing and risk/reward teams for daily fantasy purposes this weekend. The return of Aaron Rodgers is exciting, but his health and concerns of a forced come back for a must-win Week 17 matchup are definitely very real. The Rodgers situation is further muddied by the expected return of Randall Cobb to the offense as well. Cobb was a consistent top-10 WR when healthy, but is expected to play a somewhat reduced number of snaps and hasn’t played in a real game since he went down in Week 6. The first 5 games of the season was the only time we saw Rodgers playing with his top-3 wideouts in Nelson, Cobb and Jones. Over those 5 weeks, here was the target breakdown for A-Rodg.

Cobb (45 tgt), Nelson (40 tgt), Jones (28 tgt), Boykin (6 tgt) 1
1 – Boykin’s 6 targets all came in Week 6

Rodgers is known for spreading the wealth but in his first game back from a broken collarbone, I wouldn’t expect him to be in a full groove quite yet and he might rely heavily on Jordy Nelson as a security blanket in the early going. Cobb is an intriguing play considering the Bears have struggled against WR2’s more than WR1’s over the season, but regardless Chicago’s weakness really hasn’t been their secondary. In fact, they haven’t allowed a 300 yard passer all season and no receiver has had 100 or more yards since Week 3 when Antonio Brown torched them for 196 and 2 scores.

The weakness is obvious in the Bears defense, and it’s right up the middle. The Packers can win this game by running the ball with Eddie Lacy who is expected to play come Sunday. Lacy carried the ball 22 times for 150 yards and 1 TD the last time these two teams met and is coming off a game where he managed 84 yards and 2 TDs on just 15 touches. How bad is the Chicago rush defense you ask?

Wk Opp. RB RuAtt RuYd RuTD YPC Rec RecYd RecTD FP
6 Brandon Jacobs 22 106 2 4.82 1 8 0 23.90
7 Alfred Morris 19 95 0 5.00 0 0 0 9.50
7 Roy Helu 11 41 3 3.73 1 5 0 23.10
9 Eddie Lacy 22 150 1 6.82 0 0 0 21.00
9 James Starks 6 40 1 6.67 0 0 0 10.00
10 Reggie Bush 14 105 0 7.50 3 8 0 12.80
11 Ray Rice 25 131 1 5.24 3 17 0 22.30
12 Benny Cunningham 13 109 1 8.38 0 0 0 16.90
12 Zac Stacy 12 87 1 7.25 1 10 0 16.20
13 Adrian Peterson 35 211 0 6.03 2 0 0 22.10
14 DeMarco Murray 18 146 0 8.11 2 9 0 16.50
15 Edwin Baker 8 38 1 4.75 4 46 0 16.40
16 LeSean McCoy 18 133 2 7.39 6 29 0 31.20
16 Bryce Brown 9 115 1 12.78 0 0 0 17.50

Since Week 6, 11 different running backs have had at least 80 rushing yards against them. That’s 11 running backs in 10 games. They’ve allowed 16 rush touchdowns in that span and on the season, RBs are averaging 5.3 YPC against them. Last week, LeSean McCoy AND Bryce Brown went over the 100 yard marker and the Eagles combined for 4 rushing touchdowns. There are some things that are just no brainers, and targeting RBs against the Bears is one of those no brainers.

Chicago Bears

Chicago will need to have short term memory after getting embarrassed on SNF against the Eagles in Week 16. Jay Cutler looked out of sync and he’ll need to get off to a better start against Green Bay to give himself a reasonable opportunity to stay in this game. The one bright spot was that Cutler equally targeted both Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, throwing at each 9 times. Given the importance of this game though, don’t be surprised if Cutler goes right back to his security blanket more often than not with Marshall on the outside. When these teams met in Week 9, Tramon Williams and Davon House covered Marshall for the majority of plays and Williams rates out as the 51st best qualified corner in coverage on PFF and House is 78th out of 110 qualified CBs. The point being, neither is a shut down corner and both will end up covering Jeffery/Marshall whenever the tandem is on the outside. Marshall specifically could play outside the numbers a bit more often this week, with Earl Bennett looking likely to miss this contest as the WR3 for Chicago. Bennett has almost no fantasy significance, but his presence does open up a couple of extra targets for the two big name receivers as well as for TE Martellus Bennett. Cutler and the receiving corps have a great matchup, as the Packers rank 24th in FP-allowed to QBs over the last 5 weeks and 26th against WRs. Bennett could find success as well, as GB has allowed an opposing TE to find the end zone in each of their last three games.

What might be an underrated downfall of the Packers defense is their rush stopping. The Bears have been historically bad, but Green Bay has been almost as terrible over the last 8 games. In that span, 6 opposing RB1s have had 100 yard efforts against them including the most recent 124 yard game and 1 TD allowed to Le’Veon Bell. The last time these teams met, Matt Forte has 125 yards rushing and a score, along with 5 receptions for 54 yards. Over the last 5 weeks, the Packers are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs as well. Forte can do it all, rushing for big totals and catching the ball out of the backfield, so expect both Chicago and Green Bay to at least try to establish the run in this one despite both being pass first offenses for the most part.

GB @ CHI – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Washington at NY Giants

Washington Redskins New York Giants
Redskins Giants
Sun – 1:00PM ET MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
3.5 46 21.25 -3.5 46 24.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 21.9 22 15 5 Offense 18.3 28 17 31
Defense 30.5 31 22 14 Defense 25.1 20 13 15
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
NY Giants 14 20 7 16 Washington 24 29 22 24
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Garcon 174 11.5 13.3 18.0 Randle 79 5.1 5.0 9.0
Morgan Nicks 98 6.9 6.3 7.0
Robinson 35 2.3 5.3 3.0 Jernigan
Paulsen 43 2.9 4.7 2.0 Myers 68 4.7 5.7 7.0

Washington Redskins

The Redskins head into Week 17 following back-to-back hard fought losses with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Cousins and company will head to NY to take on the Giants in a game that the NFL scheduling committee probably expected to mean a whole lot more than it will end up meaning. In the earlier meeting between these two teams, RG3 was at QB and had a boring game but managed 88 rushing yards with 207 pass yards and 1 TD. Overall, the Giants defense has been the definition of mediocre. They’re 13th in passing yards allowed and 15th in rushing yards allowed. They rank 15th over the last 5 weeks and on the season in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs, but they have excelled in shutting down some top tier WRs like Calvin Johnson in recent weeks, which has been impressive. Their biggest weakness though would be the rushing game, which ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs over the last 5 weeks and 30th over the last three weeks. They’ve been beaten up on the ground, but a lot of that damage has come in the screen game, including allowing season highs in receptions (3) and receiving yards (27) to Alfred Morris in Week 13:

It’s unlikely that Morris finds himself involved in the passing game all that often, but the Giants overall rush defense has been much softer since the injury to Jason Pierre-Paul earlier in December.

The passing game for Kirk Cousins relies solely around Pierre Garcon. Garcon has been targeted 28 times over 2 games with Cousins, and 40 total times in 3 starts with Cousins at the helm dating back to 2012. Nearly every other Redskins receivers targets dropped off from Week 15 to Week 16, with the exception of Garcon. Just look at the ridiculous stat lines with Cousins playing:

The Giants have Prince Amukamara who will shadow Garcon for the majority of the game, and he looked great vs. Megatron in Week 16, but the number of targets for Pierre can’t be ignored and he might be matchup proof right now.

New York Giants

The G-Men will take the field in Week 17 with little to care about, other than pride. At the very least, Eli looked better than he has in many weeks in Detroit last Sunday. He still threw an interception, and the turnover bug continues to be his biggest downfall. He’s been intercepted at least once in all but three games this season. The Redskins secondary has been much improved in recent weeks as well, ranking 25th in fantasy points allowed to QBs on the season but standing at 8th in that stat over the last 5 weeks and 6th over the last 3 weeks. They have allowed 9 passing touchdowns over their last 5 games, but no QB has thrown for over 250 yards. They’ve also struggled a bit with WR1’s specifically, but the opposing stat lines aren’t gaudy by any stretch. The Giants don’t have a true WR1 with Victor Cruz out, but Hakeem Nicks and Jernel Jernigan should play the majority of snaps with Rueben Randle very questionable to suit up come Sunday as well. Jernigan was a revelation in the Week 16 game in Detroit, as he reeled in 6 balls for 80 yards and a score. That makes it two consecutive big games for Jernel, as he slid under the radar in week 15 with 7 catches for 67 yards. Last weekend, Jernigan lead the Giants in targets, with 12 total looks while Randle was thrown at 9 times and Nicks saw 7 targets as well.

On the ground, this is a good matchup for Andre Brown who faces a Redskins front seven that ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs over the last 3 weeks and 24th over the last 5 weeks. It’s also worth noting that this is Brown’s last game to prove he is worthy of a big contract next year, and money can be a tremendous motivator. He has cooled off significantly after having 100+ rushing yards in 2 of his first 3 games played this year, so a big game on Sunday would go a long way in helping his argument to be a featured back on an NFL roster. Over the last three weeks, the Redskins have allowed 7 total touchdowns (rushing and receiving) to opposing backs. And four weeks back when they faced the Giants, Brown was able to find the end zone twice despite totaling just 35 yards on the ground. Red zone defense has been a huge issue for the Redskins this season, and something has to give in this matchup as Brown has gone three straight weeks without finding pay dirt.

WAS @ NYG – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints
Buccaneers Saints
Sun – 1:00PM ET Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
12.5 47 17.25 -12.5 47 29.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 18.1 29 32 22 Offense 24.8 13 2 25
Defense 23.1 14 15 17 Defense 19.1 5 2 19
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
New Orleans 5 13 4 11 Tampa Bay 25 6 16 17
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Jackson 147 9.9 8.7 10.0 Colston 104 7.5 12.0 10.0
Underwood 38 3.5 4.0 2.0 Stills 50 3.4 3.3 4.0
Owusu 18 2.3 2.7 3.0 Moore 49 4.1 4.7 3.0
Wright 66 4.4 6.3 6.0 Graham 136 8.9 9.3 11.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers offense has fallen off a cliff over the last four weeks, while going 1-3 in that span. They have nothing to play for, but starting a rookie QB means that they won’t mail it in come Sunday. But that rookie QB, Mike Glennon, hasn’t thrown for more than 180 yards in any of his last four games. Similarly, the Saints secondary hasn’t allowed more than 181 passing yards in any of their last three games. The Buccs are also the biggest underdog of the day, projected by Vegas to lose by 12.5 points, which doesn’t bode well for Tampa’s chances of moving the ball up and down the field with Brees and the Saints offense. The only positive here is that NO placed Kenny Vaccaro, SS and occasional slot corner, on IR this week. Vaccaro has had a pretty solid season and was a key piece in the Saints secondary. Without him, Vincent Jackson should be able to find a little more breathing room over the top. In the only game Vaccaro missed this season, the 49ers had minimal success passing the ball but Anquan Boldin was able to bully the secondary for 6 receptions, 56 yards and 1 TD. The numbers aren’t astounding, but the 49ers passing game pre-Crabtree’s return wasn’t exactly cruising up and down the field to begin with. It’s not a lot, but Vaccaro’s injury could be enough to allow VJax to have a slightly better day in Week 17.

The rushing attack for Tampa has a much better matchup, as the Saints have allowed 200 yards rushing and 2 TDs to opposing RB1’s over the last two games. Bobby Rainey is coming off one of his worst performances of the year, where he got 20 touches vs. STL and managed just 37 rushing yards. He did find the end zone, but averaging less than 2 YPC is not pretty. He now has just 64 rushing yards over his last two games on 31 total rush attempts. Given the massive spread, it’s unclear how many touches Rainey will see in this one if the Saints get a commanding lead in the early going. The matchup is +EV for Rainey, but the Buccs rank 4th worst on PFF’s rush block ratings and that has been a major reason for rushing struggles in recent weeks.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints return home in a game that has very viable playoff implications. The NFC playoff seeding picture is a mess and the Saints stand in between a rock and a hard place, needing to win and hope for a number of other scenarios to give them a shot at the 2 seed. But at the very least they need to win this game just to get into the playoffs. That means full speed ahead for the Saints offense which is notoriously better at home. In past Grind Downs, I’ve broken down the home/road splits for their skill players. So rather than doing that again, just trust that almost all of the Saints receivers, backs and Brees himself are much, much better in the SuperDome. Instead, let’s focus on the matchups since one of the Saints receiving options will be seeing a heavy dose of Darrelle Revis on Sunday. These two teams met all the way back in Week 2, when Revis was far from fully recovered from his 2012 injury, so TB was playing a lot of zone defense and not utilizing Revis as a shadow corner. It’s more likely that the Buccaneers follow the Bill Belichick model and throw the physical corner on Jimmy Graham in this one. Graham had his worst game of the season against the Patriots earlier on when Aqib Talib shadowed him and bullied him throughout the course of the game. Look for Schiano, a Belichick disciple, to follow that same strategy. That could leave a huge opening for Marques Colston on the outside, as the Buccaneers have really struggled with 2nd receiving options on the year. Colston has found his 2012 success again over the last 3 weeks, totaling 22 receptions for 280 receiving yards and 3 RecTD.

For the Saints rushing attack, you have to figure they will see a lot of carries and opportunities out of the backfield in general with the 12.5 point spread favoring New Orleans. If this game gets ugly, you should definitely consider Mark Ingram who made the most of his 13 touches in Week 16, going for 83 yards in that time. The Buccs will be without Da’Quon Bowers, although his 2013 campaign has been a massive disappointment. Overall, the Buccs have allowed 80+ rushing yards to 4 of the last 6 RB1’s they have faced but still rank 7th in fantasy points allowed to running backs on the season, and over the last 3 and 5 week splits. It’s not an ideal matchup, but Darren Sproles was able to snag 6 balls for 36 yards in the Week 2 matchup against TB and is a constant PPR threat, especially at home where he’s averaging nearly 2 times as many FPPG.

TB @ NO – Daily Fantasy Relevant

NFL Grind Down Page 4 – Page 5

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)