NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Eleven - Page 4
San Francisco at New Orleans
| San Francisco 49ers | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Superdome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.2 | 10 | 32 | 4 | Offense | 29.4 | 2 | 2 | 23 | |
| Defense | 17.2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | Defense | 18.1 | 5 | 3 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans | 3 | 18 | 9 | 4 | San Francisco | 5 | 21 | 7 | 3 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Boldin | 67 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 5.0 | Colston | 48 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | |
| Manningham | 6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | Stills | 32 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | |
| Patton | 2 | 0.5 | Moore | 27 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | |||
| Davis | 49 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | Graham | 80 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 5.0 | |
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers will try to bounce back from their first loss in awhile when they head to the Mercedes Super Dome in Week 11. Their offense was smothered by Carolina and Colin Kaepernick looked lost at times. Carolina seemed to successfully exploit Kaepernick’s biggest weakness in 2013, pressure. He’s completing just over 40% of passes when under pressure so far this year, compared to around 70% a season ago. The Saints have the 11th ranked pass rush on PFF and NO is also 6th in the NFL in sacks per game at 3.2. If Rob Ryan can bring the ruckus you might see this 49ers passing game come to a grinding halt and big time struggles for Kaep, Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin.
On the ground, it’s a terrific matchup for the 49ers as long as they can keep the game closer than Dallas was able to last week. DeMarco Murray started out by torching a still soft front seven for the Saints in the early going, but the massive deficit made running the ball no longer an option. I would venture that San Fran’s defense is able to keep them in this game better than Dallas could and they’ll be able to establish the run with both Gore and Kaepernick.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Luckily for Kaep, a lot of his value comes on the ground so his passing numbers aren’t all that critical. He can break loose against this Saints front seven and could be considered a GPP option this weekend.
- RB – Gore has to be near the top of nearly everyone’s list this week against this Saints defense. He’s a great option for H2H or 50/50 games but also has decent upside for tournament play.
- WR – Boldin hasn’t reeled in a TD since Week 4 and his days as the only receiving option for the 49ers are over with Mario Manningham back in the fold. Manningham was actually targeted once more than Boldin in Week 10 and has some nice upside against a defense that has given up some big games to WR2’s this season (Alshon Jeffery 218 yards in Week 5 comes to mind).
- TE – I wouldn’t be all that concerned about Davis’ health after he left last week. He’s probable to play on Sunday but the bigger worry should be a Saints defense that held Jason Witten to just 2 catches for 27 yards last week.
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans ranks in the Top-5 in both scoring offense and scoring defense, an impressive feat considering just how bad their defense was a year ago. But the story is still Drew Brees and the offense who were able to get Marques Colston going in Week 10 and add another dimension to their prolific passing game by running it down Dallas’ throat with Mark Ingram. The NO running backs might have accomplished an NFL first, by having 3 backs in the Top-5 in fantasy points per game in the same week. Thomas, Sproles and Ingram were all top-5 running backs last weekend. Those backs might need to shoulder another heavy load in this one against a San Fran defense that ranks 21st in FPPG-allowed to running backs and in recent weeks has struggled against Andre Ellington, Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew catching the ball out of the backfield.
In the air, Drew Brees spreads it out as much as any quarterback which makes him very difficult to stop but also makes his receivers very difficult to target. The 49ers are 4th in the NFL against WR #1’s but 14th against WR #2’s so you might see Brees looking towards the likes of Kenny Stills and Lance Moore more often than usual. The Niners haven’t been immune to big days through the air either, and some surprising names have reached around or over 300 yards against them:
- Aaron Rodgers – 333 PaYd, 3 PaTD, 1 INT
- Carson Palmer – 298 PaYd, 2 PaTD, 2 INT
- Jake Locker – 326 PaYd, 2 PaTD, 1 INT
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Much like Peyton Manning, Brees’ matchup takes him out of the H2H or 50/50 game picture for this weekend but he remains a tournament play because of his upside combined with the 49ers occasional defensive struggles.
- RB – Both Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles do the damage in the screen game for NO and both are strong options this weekend. Mark Ingram is likely to return to a reduced role and I’d be surprised if he replicates last weeks gem.
- WR – As referenced above, the matchup for Colston is probably harder than the one for Stills and Moore. Stills is the preeminent deep threat for NO and while he won’t have a ton of PPR value, his home run ability makes him a tournament play (as seen last week when he accounted for nearly all of his points on a 60 yard TD pass).
- TE – It’s Jimmy Graham so you can’t rule him out, but his price tag is pretty steep against a defense that hasn’t allowed an opposing tight end over 60 yards receiving all season.
Green Bay at NY Giants
| Green Bay Packers | New York Giants | |||||||||
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| Sun – 8:30PM ET | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 6 | 42.5 | 18.25 | -6 | 42.5 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | Offense | 18.3 | 30 | 14 | 29 | |
| Defense | 23.6 | 17 | 21 | 13 | Defense | 27.0 | 26 | 11 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| NY Giants | 19 | 12 | 14 | 22 | Green Bay | 23 | 15 | 19 | 25 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Nelson | 72 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 10.0 | Cruz | 87 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 10.0 | |
| Boykin | 36 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 13.0 | Nicks | 72 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.0 | |
| Jones | 39 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 7.0 | Randle | 50 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | |
| Bostick | 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 3.0 | Myers | 37 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | |
Green Bay Packers
Who the hell is Scott Tolzien? Well he’s a former practice squad QB from Wisconsin who came in relief of Seneca Wallace last week and, after some early jitters, actually didn’t look awful. He threw a ton as the Packers tried to come back against the Eagles and managed 280 yards and a score along with 2 picks. Here’s who he was targeting:
- Jordy Nelson – 9 targets
- James Jones – 7 targets
- Jarrett Boykin – 13 targets
- Andrew Quarless – 4 targets
- Brandon Bostick – 3 targets
Boykin stands out but that may have been more situational than anything else. But it could also be related to Tolzien getting reps with Boykin in training camps etc. and feeling a little more comfortable with him than he did with the first string guys like Nelson and Jones. It’s something to watch for against a Giants defense that has improved drastically against the pass over the past three weeks. Although they’ve faced Josh Freeman, Matt Barkley and Terrelle Pryor, they’ve still held opposing QBs to under 200 yards in all three of those games.
On the ground it starts with Eddie Lacy who we mentioned last week as the guy who needed to shoulder the load to keep GB in the game. Well instead they were playing catch up and Lacy’s value plummeted as Tolzien dropped back to pass early and often. He still managed 73 rush yards but was under 3 yards per carry and didn’t find the end zone. This matchup could prove tough as well for Lacy as the Giants held Adrian Peterson to 28 rush yards and LeSean McCoy to just 48 rush yards in the last 3 weeks.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – This might sound crazy but on a 2 QB site where Tolzien’s price is drastically lower than most QBs, I think he could present nice value. Green Bay’s defense could easily put them in a hole and if Tolzien has to throw a ton he could be a nice tournament play.
- RB – Lacy’s guaranteed 20-25 touches makes him a strong play nearly every week, but I’d leave him for head to head or 50/50 games as I think his ceiling is reduced a bit against an improved Giants defense.
- WR – As Tolzien gets more comfortable with the starters, Jordy and James Jones should both surpass Boykin in targets and are strong options in Week 11. Boykin is definitely still in play though but as a tournament option only.
- TE – We’ve been saying since the beginning that Quarless lacks the athleticism to be a pass catching tight end but his reps alone made him a viable option. That changed last weekend as the much more athletic Brandon Bostick found the end zone and Bostick could be involved a lot more in Week 11.
New York Giants
Somehow this team is still in the playoff hunt and they’ve been doing it by winning ugly. During their three game winning streak they’ve totaled 58 points and Eli Manning has just 2 total passing touchdowns while not passing the 250 yard mark in any of those games. But in Week 10 it was Andre Brown and his 30 touches that lead the Giants to victory. He wasn’t overly efficient considering he got the ball 30 times, but he did manage 115 yards and a score. He could see more success on Sunday against a Packers defense that has allowed 100+ yards on the ground in each of their past two games.
But back to Eli and the passing game, who have been a major let down all season long. Victor Cruz seems hampered by an injury and hasn’t found the end zone in 5 weeks. He was targeted a team high 10 times in Week 10, but managed just 3 catches for 37 yards. This Packers defense is vulnerable though, just look at their stat lines against WR1’s:
| WK | NAME | Targets | Rec | RecYD | RecTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anquan Boldin | 17 | 13 | 208 | 1 |
| 2 | Pierre Garcon | 13 | 8 | 143 | 1 |
| 3 | A.J. Green | 8 | 4 | 46 | 1 |
| 5 | Kris Durham | 8 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| 6 | Torrey Smith | 4 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| 7 | Josh Gordon | 6 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| 8 | Greg Jennings | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 9 | Brandon Marshall | 13 | 7 | 107 | 1 |
| 10 | DeSean Jackson | 5 | 4 | 80 | 1 |
Outside of a three week stretch against Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon and Greg Jennings, opponent WR1s have torched them this season.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – I just don’t trust Eli anymore. He has some upside but he’s disappointed fantasy teams in almost every week this season and he should be avoided for now.
- RB – Brown is definitely in play and should see another healthy dose of touches. He makes for a nice mid-priced RB in both H2H and tournament play.
- WR – I’m buying into Victor Cruz in GPPs this weekend given the Packers struggles against the WR1 position. Other than that, it’s hard to trust Nicks or Reuben Randle when they were only targeted a total of 7 times between the two of them in Week 10.
- TE – No Giants TE had a target in Week 10. Avoid.
New England at Carolina
| New England Patriots | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
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| Mon – 8:40PM ET | Bank of America Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 1 | 46 | 22.5 | -1 | 46 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.0 | 8 | 18 | 8 | Offense | 23.8 | 15 | 28 | 10 | |
| Defense | 19.4 | 7 | 12 | 30 | Defense | 12.8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina | 1 | 9 | 2 | 10 | New England | 11 | 20 | 15 | 12 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Amendola | 37 | 7.4 | 5.0 | Smith | 76 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 11.0 | ||
| Dobson | 60 | 7.3 | 7.0 | Lafell | 53 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 8.0 | ||
| Edelman | 74 | 8.2 | 3.0 | Ginn Jr. | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | |||
| Gronkowski | 33 | 10.7 | 7.5 | Olsen | 50 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | ||
New England Patriots
The Patriots come off their bye week and head to Carolina to face the hottest team in the NFL right now. The Panthers just took down the 49ers in a hard fought game in San Fran and now have to take on the AFC East leaders. For New England, it looks like they will activate Shane Vereen from the short term IR and that will be a big boost to their 3rd down conversion rate, which is at an abysmal 34% right now compared to 48% last season. Vereen will take away 3rd down snaps from Brandon Bolden but shouldn’t have a huge impact on Stevan Ridley, although the Panthers defense might take care of that. The Panthers front seven has been one of, if not the best in all of football this season and has only allowed one opposing running back over 100 yards.
In the passing game, Brady and company finally got on track in Week 9 against Pittsburgh. Brady found Amendola, Gronk and Dobson for touchdowns and Dobson was targeted a whopping 9 times. Gronkowski led the team in targets with 10 and continues to be the go-to option for Brady since returning to the lineup. The Panthers have been vulnerable against tight ends at times, with Tony Gonzalez and Kyle Rudolph posting nice stat lines against them. Overall, Carolina hasn’t allowed a single quarterback to post multiple touchdown games this season and Week 9 was the first time Brady threw for multiple scores since Week 4.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – The Panthers are the top rated defense vs. Quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points per game, but Brady has had an extra week to prepare for this defense and I think he makes a nice upside tournament play on Sunday given his breakout game in Week 9 and the health of the receiving corps around him.
- RB – Ridley should probably be avoided against this front seven, but if you want to consider a Pats running back then Shane Vereen has some value on PPR sites. In Week 1 he was targeted 10 times by Brady.
- WR – The Panthers have been strong against wideouts but Aaron Dobson is developing nicely and is a good GPP play as a deep threat for Brady. Danny Amendola also broke out in Week 9 but should probably be avoided unless as a tournament handcuff to TB12.
- TE – Much like Jimmy Graham, Gronk finds himself in a suboptimal matchup this weekend but is too good to totally ignore. He has the best Defense vs. Position matchup of all Patriots players and if you want to target someone on MNF, this would be the guy.
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton and company are on fire right now, in large part thanks to their defense, but also behind smart play at the quarterback position. The Panthers offense as a whole ranks 3rd in PFF’s offensive ratings and Newton has done a better job of game management in 2013. With that said, he hasn’t posted one of those trademark Cam Newton stat lines in awhile, but this matchup could be the spot for one. The Patriots have only allowed 2 quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards, but both reached the 400 yard mark while trying to play catch up. If New England can get ahead early, their defense will move to a ‘bend don’t break’ model and that should open up nice gaps for Newton to throw into. The other news critical to this passing game is the likely return of Aqib Talib who will probably shadow Steve Smith all over the field. Before his hamstring injury, Talib was as shut down of a corner as they come and could eliminate Smith’s effectiveness.
On the ground, it’s a three headed monster despite DeAngelo Williams still proving to be the most successful back. The Patriots are vulnerable up the middle and Williams could find success there if he’s given more opportunities. In the two weeks since Stewart has returned, Williams has just played 35% and 28% of snaps.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Newton is a high risk/high reward play this weekend. The tempo of this game should be decided early and it’s possible it turns into a higher scoring game than most people expect. If so, Newton can thrive.
- RB – The whole running situation is a bit of a mess here, but if you want to take a chance because of the juicy matchup then DeAngelo Williams is probably the best option.
- WR – Smith might be blanketed by Talib but the Patriots rank in the bottom-5 in the NFL against WR2’s. Brandon Lafell could find himself open over the middle of the field and makes for a nice GPP option to pair with Newton.
- TE – The Patriot linebackers aren’t too strong in pass coverage and with Talib focusing on Smith you could very well see a nice day out of Greg Olsen. He’s moderately priced on nearly every site and could be considered in any game format.
Have a great weekend Grinders!