NHL DFS Slate Summary: Wednesday, October 13th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NHL DFS Slate Summary. In this article, we’ll concentrate on the key elements of DFS success while delivering analysis on the upcoming slate of NHL slate of games for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ll discuss today’s player projections, player correlations and stacking, injuries to monitor, starting lineup news and notes, differentiation tactics using projected ownership, and recommendations on ways to create lineup diversity if entering multiple lineups using LineupHQ.
Today’s Games
Slate Overview
Last night was fun as we saw a new NHL franchise enter the league, but tonight’s the first DFS-friendly slate of the season. We have five games on tap this evening, with the first puck dropping at 7 PM ET in Toronto between two very bitter Canadian rivals. This is a slate including a plethora of the NHL’s most dangerous DFS weapons (McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, Ovechkin (Questionable), Panarin, etc.) and you’re obviously going to be looking to jam as many of them into your lineups as possible.
This means finding quality value options will likely be the key to the slate, and luckily this early in the season, there are typically plenty of quality candidates. Two big stars will be missing from their respective benches this evening as Auston Matthews has been ruled out for the Maple Leafs and COVID will delay the season debut of Nathan MacKinnon. Their absences will definitely open the door for a few more value options (Mark Scheifele will also be out of action tonight for the Winnipeg Jets). Let’s dig in.
Top Options
Connor McDavid – Edmonton Oilers (8300 DK / 8800 FD) – If your cash game builds don’t start hereā¦. I don’t really know what to say. McDavid racked up 105 points in 56 games last season and is the clear goat for DFS for this generation. In ten games against the Canucks last season, he racked up 8 points and 14 assists. Last season, the Canucks surrendered a league-worst 60.25 CA/60 (at 5×5). McDavid registered a point on 57.4% of Edmonton’s goals last season and it would be borderline shocking to see him held off the scoresheet this evening. Just pay up.
Mitch Marner – Toronto Maple Leafs (6900 DK / 7700 FD) – After being shocked by the Canadiens in the playoffs last season, Toronto has been anxiously awaiting this game for over five months now. While the Hab’s did make a rather shocking run into the Stanley Cup Finals last season, they will start the season without Carey Price between the pipes and might suffer a bit early due to their shortened offseason. Marner led the Leafs with 67 points last season and had plenty of success against the Canadiens, posting four goals and seven assists in their ten regular-season meetings. Marner was banged up in practice on Tuesday, so we will need to monitor news after their morning skate, but assuming he’s good to lace up his skates, he’s one of the better options on this slate.
Value Options
Nazem Kadri – Colorado Avalanche (5200 DK / 5200 FD) – Kadri saw his season end early after being suspended for eight games during the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season and he should be hungry to get back on the ice with his team. With Nathan MacKinnon watching from the press box, Kadri is slated to slide into the role as the first-line center alongside studs Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog. Kadri finished the 2020-21 season with 32 points in 56 games and does have the speed and offensive upside to thrive alongside such talented linemates. Kadri’s shot volume gives him a nice floor and he’ll also so a healthy dose of playing time with the Avs’ second power-play unit, where he’ll get a crack against a Chicago team who owned an ugly 76.8% penalty kill.
Nick Ritchie – Toronto Maple Leafs (3900 DK / 3500 FD) – With Austin Matthews (and Ilya Mikheyev) both out of the lineup to start the season, Ritchie looks slated to begin the season as the third wheel to John Tavares and Mitch Marner. Ritchie is a former first-round pick who has shown flashes of his offensive upside. Though he’s failed to find much consistency during his career thus far, he’s still just 25 years old and perhaps the change of scenery is just what he needs to breakout. He did post a career-best 15 goals last season (in just 56 games) and, much like Kadri, is not shy about putting the puck on the net.
a id=“alex-newhook” data-role=“modal” rel=“nofollow” href=”/players/alex-newhook-4200157”>Alex Newhook – Colorado Avalanche (2500 DK / 4000 FD) – Colorado has a couple of potential breakout players joining their forward depths this season and if you’re searching for extreme value this evening, Alex Newhook needs to be on your radar. The 20-year-old is blessed with high-end speed and he’s utilized it to put up very impressive numbers at every stop along the way to the NHL level. He was able to get a glimpse of NHL life at the end of last season, where he posted three assists in six regular-season games and then added a goal and an assist in eight playoff games. He is slated to get some work with the second power-play unit so it’s hard to ask for much more from a guy sitting at the minimum price on DraftKings.
Others: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (DK), Trevor Zegras, Cole Caufield, Zach Hyman
Top Stack Projections
| Team | Proj | Own% | DKPt/$ | FDPt$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WASPP1 | 10.18 | 6.74% | 1.71 | 1.94 |
| TOR1 | 11.95 | 16.10% | 2.01 | 2.46 |
| TORPP1 | 11.38 | 13.92% | 1.96 | 2.91 |
| NYRPP1 | 10.43 | 7.12% | 1.73 | 2.14 |
| COL1 | 12.63 | 12.47% | 1.96 | 2.54 |
| COLPP1 | 11.46 | 12.40% | 1.92 | 2.28 |
| CHI1 | 10.93 | 10.77% | 1.77 | 2.22 |
| CHIPP1 | 10.70 | 10.26% | 1.07 | 2.13 |
| EDM1 | 13.87 | 33.23% | 2.04 | 2.82 |
| EDMPP1 | 13.79 | 28.52% | 2.11 | 2.63 |
Projected Ownership is posted after morning skate daily.
Top Stack: McDavid + Draisaitl – Edmonton Oilers – This is a no-brainer for me tonight. These two torched the Canucks repeatedly last season and it’s not like Vancouver did anything during the offseason that would suddenly change their abilities to slow down this dynamic duo. These two care heavily correlated as they combined for points on the same goal more frequently than any other tandem, doing so 54 times in just 56 games. Once the dust settles on the morning skate and we have a clear picture of their linemates (both even strength and on the PP1), you can sprinkle them into this mix to help offset their massive salaries.
Low-Owned: NYR PP1: – In what will likely have the buzz of a UFC event, things will likely be heated in the Nation’s Capital when the Rangers invade the Capital One Arena. We saw a small sample of the bad blood between these two teams at the end of last season, but it’s unlikely New York was satisfied after Tom Wilson missed the final two periods. We’re almost certain to see penalties and fights galore here and penalties equal power-play opportunities. Artemi Panarin will have revenge on his mind and he punished this Washington team last season for two goals and nine assists in just seven meetings (one of which saw his season come to an end). Mix in stud forwards Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider along with Norris Trophy winning defenseman Adam Fox, and the upside of this top power-play unit is appetizing. The Alex Ovechkin news could change things, but currently, these Rangers are listed as small Vegas underdogs which should suppress their ownership to some degree.
Image Credit: Imagn