NHL Grind Down: Thursday, October 20th - Page Three
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Buffalo Sabres at Vancouver Canucks
| Buffalo Sabres | Vancouver Canucks | ||||||||
 | Robin Lehner |  | Jacob Markstrom | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 35-36-11 | 31-38-13 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.43 | 3.33 | 18.90% | 82.60% | Team Stats | 2.27 | 1.67 | 15.80% | 81.10% |
It’s not that Buffalo’s hopes are crushed after a mediocre 1-1-1 start to the season, but two huge injuries to Jack Eichel and Evander Kane seem to have just drained some of the early season excitement from Buffalo. Dan Bylsma definitely isn’t going to simply be able to supplement that kind of missing firepower, but he does still have some offensive weapons at his disposal that can keep this Buffalo team’s head above water until they get back to full health. Both Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Okposo are finally looking to be back to full speed and those two very talented forwards are slated to be joined by former #2 overall pick Sam Reinhart on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit. Their combination of size and speed should be a matchup problem for this Vancouver team and, if Buffalo leaves the Rogers Arena with two points, they will have had their fingerprints all over this game. On defense, Rasmus Ristolainen has already racked up five assists in the first three games and looks poised to take yet another big step forward in what is going to be his third full NHL season. He posted 41 points in 82 games last season, logs heavy minutes both at even strength and with the #1 power-play unit, and has his shotblocking ability gives him a tremendous floor for cash games.
It’s admittedly dangerous to draw any type of conclusion based on a three game sample size, but if you’re looking for reasons to target Vancouver, then the early season Corsi numbers will surely ease your mind. The Sabres enter tonight’s action rates as the second worst puck possession team (41.35 CF%) meanwhile, and somewhat shockingly, the Vancouver Canucks have the NHL’s highest CF% at 58.04%. Again, don’t read into this too much as Vancouver will almost certainly finish the year in the bottom third of the league in that stat, but at least for now they’re controlling play. With that said, the Canucks are the text-book example of a one-trick pony. They’re going to rely way too heavily on their top line of Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin and Loui Eriksson to carry the offensive load all season. While this is bad news Willie Desjardins and Canucks fans in general, it certainly makes them easy to analyze from a DFS perspective. With the Sabres still prone to defensive breakdowns, all three players look like fine options in this matchup tonight and all three are very reasonably priced on most sites, to boot. On defense, the Canucks have struggled to find much offensive production over the last 2-3 years and things don’t look much different this time around either. Alexander Edler is the top play and mans the point of the #1 power-play unit, but rostering him is rarely exciting.
Buffalo Sabres
Team Metrics – 2016 – 47.49 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -28, 106.59 CP60
Elite Options
Ryan O’Reilly – 2016 metrics – 51.72 CF60, 2.15 xGF60, 97.94 PDO
Rasmus Ristolainen – 2016 metrics – 49.58 CF60, 2.03 xGF60, 98.82 PDO
Secondary Options
Kyle Okposo – 2016 metrics – 57.05 CF60, 2.48 xGF60, 99.82 PDO
Sam Reinhart – 2016 metrics – 55.21 CF60, 2.34 xGF60, 99.24 PDO
Expected Netminder
Robin Lehner – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Vancouver Canucks
Team Metrics – 2016 – 47.2 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -30, 107.16 CP60
Elite Options
Daniel Sedin – 2016 metrics – 51.55 CF60, 2.25 xGF60, 103.02 PDO
Secondary Options
Henrik Sedin – 2016 metrics – 52.28 CF60, 2.26 xGF60, 101.72 PDO
Loui Eriksson – 2016 metrics – 59.07 CF60, 2.2 xGF60, 102.53 PDO
Bo Horvat – 2016 metrics – 50.42 CF60, 2.27 xGF60, 97.53 PDO
Alex Edler – 2016 metrics – 47.35 CF60, 2.11 xGF60, 99.61 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jacob Markstrom – My Ratings (out of 10): 6.0 Cash, 7.5 GPP