NHL Grind Down: Thursday, October 20th
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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
NOTE: Listed team records/statistics are from 2015/16 season.
San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins
| San Jose Sharks | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Martin Jones |  | Marc-Andre Fleury | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 46-30-6 | 48-26-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.89 | 3.00 | 22.50% | 80.50% | Team Stats | 2.94 | 3.00 | 18.40% | 84.40% |
In a rematch of the 2016 Stanley Cup Finals, the San Jose Sharks will look to make a statement tonight as they invade the PPG Paints Arena. They bounced back from a tough loss against the Rangers and defeated the New York Islanders by a 3-2 margin on Tuesday and will enter tonight’s game with a 3-1-0 record. They looked slightly overmatched at times (and badly outshot) against the Penguins team in the Cup Finals last season, but they won’t have Sidney Crosby to contend with this evening. Obviously, picking on the defending champs is not often going to be a +EV decision, but the Sharks simply have too much offensive firepower to ignore. San Jose’s top two forward lines are responsible for a very large percentage of their offensive output, and with Peter DeBoer likely utilizing Logan Couture in a defensive role to shadow Evgeni Malkin around the ice, the top line of Tomas Hertl, Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski emerge as my favorite targets up-front. The dynamic duo of Pavelski and Thornton have already combined for a pair of goals and nine assists in just four games this season yet I really don’t expect them to see a ton of ownership in this matchup. With all of that said, Brent Burns is still the top play here and I’ll have no hesitation throwing him into both cash and GPP lineups. He has a league best eight points already (3 goals and 5 assists) and is averaging 5 SOG/G and 2.25 BS/G. Expensive? Sure. Worth it? Usually.
The Cup Champs got off to a fine start to the season with signature wins Washington and Anaheim, but they’ve now lost each of their last two games and enter tonight’s game fresh off of an embarrassing 4-0 shutout in Montreal. Sidney Crosby absence is obviously a major blow to this Pittsburgh offensive attack, but it does at least make them a little easier to predict from a DFS standpoint. While he hasn’t really done too much to get excited about yet, Evgeni Malkin is going to be counted on to pick up the scoring slack left behind by the Crosby injury. The superstar Russian headlines the top forward line alongside Patric Hornqvist (and Scott Wilson) and is a lethal weapon on the point of their very dangerous #1 power-play unit. Hornqvist all joins him on the top power-play, with Phil Kessel and Nick Bonino also up front and Kris Letang running things from the point. Considering the fact that San Jose struggled their way to an ugly 80.5% penalty kill last season, these five emerge as the top targets. It’s a small sample size as they only squared off twice last season, but both Malkin and Kessel combined for four goals and two assists in those two meetings. Be sure to monitor the news regarding Kris Letang leading up to puck drop, as he’s not only a very nice option on the blue-line if healthy, but both Justin Schultz and Trevor Daley would see a big boost if he’s unable to lace ‘em up tonight.
San Jose Sharks
Team Metrics – 2016 – 51.69 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 15, 109.23 CP60
Elite Options
Brent Burns – 2016 metrics – 62.34 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 99.79 PDO
Joe Pavelski – 2016 metrics – 62.9 CF60, 2.76 xGF60, 103.64 PDO
Secondary Options
Joe Thornton – 2016 metrics – 63.14 CF60, 2.89 xGF60, 104.43 PDO
Logan Couture – 2016 metrics – 57.16 CF60, 2.59 xGF60, 100.97 PDO
Tomas Hertl – 2016 metrics – 64.82 CF60, 2.87 xGF60, 100.81 PDO
Marc-Edouard Vlasic – 2016 metrics – 55.99 CF60, 2.46 xGF60, 101.21 PDO
Expected Netminder
Martin Jones – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 8 GPP
Pittsburgh Penguins
Team Metrics – 2016 – 52.72 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 30, 112.02 CP60
Elite Options
Evgeni Malkin – 2016 metrics – 60.59 CF60, 2.93 xGF60, 99.87 PDO
Kris Letang (If Healthy) – 2016 metrics – 64.14 CF60, 2.86 xGF60, 98.7 PDO
Secondary Options
Phil Kessel – 2016 metrics – 61.91 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 101.36 PDO
Patric Hornqvist – 2016 metrics – 65.39 CF60, 3.15 xGF60, 101.4 PDO
Nick Bonino – 2016 metrics – 57.57 CF60, 2.58 xGF60, 102.66 PDO
Trevor Daley – 2016 metrics – 61.43 CF60, 2.75 xGF60, 101.01 PDO
Expected Netminder
Marc-Andre Fleury – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 8 GPP
Anaheim Ducks at Philadelphia Flyers
| Anaheim Ducks | Philadelphia Flyers | ||||||||
 | John Gibson |  | Steve Mason | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 46-25-11 | 41-27-14 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.62 | 3.00 | 23.10% | 87.20% | Team Stats | 2.57 | 4.33 | 18.90% | 80.50% |
Anaheim got out of the gates very slowly last season, but eventually were able to crawl their way back to the top of the Pacific Division. However, this team is now one year older and didn’t do much of anything to improve during the offseason, so their 0-3-1 start is definitely a sign of trouble. They’ll wrap up their five game season opening road trip tonight in Philadelphia, and after a lackluster performance in New Jersey on Tuesday night, the heat will be turned up on Randy Carlyle if they leave the City of Brotherly Love without two points. In an effort to spark some offense (not working), Carlyle split up the duo of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry and therefore it’s each of these top two lines that deserve whatever attention you wish to dedicate to the Ducks tonight. Ryan Getzlaf has racked up a goal and three assists in the four games and perhaps more encouragingly has focused more heavily on shooting the puck early this season (19 SOG through four games). He’s slated to be joined by 20 goal-scorer from last season Jakob Silfverberg and Nick Ritchie on the top forward line, leaving Corey Perry to play alongside Andrew Cogliano and Antoine Vermette on the second line. With that said, Perry and Getzlaf do join forces on the top power-play unit where Ryan Kesler also enters the picture as a fantasy option. With the Flyers having posted a subpar 80.5% penalty kill last season, that trio deserves a small fantasy boost. On the blue-line, Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen run the show from the point of that power-play and are fine cash game options thanks to their respectable offensive games as well as shot-blocking abilities. Until the Ducks can figure out what to do with the likes of Hampus Lindholm and Shea Theodore, they’re both locked into huge minutes on a nightly basis.
After an impressive opening night win, the Flyers have now dropped two straight games and were most recently worked over by the Chicago Blackhawks in a 7-4 defeat on Tuesday. While these types of defensive breakdowns may happen more often than Philly fans are hoping for, the Flyers do at least have the offensive firepower to overcome some of their defensive short comings. The Anaheim Ducks did allow an NHL low 2.29 GA/G last season, the Flyers are still in play tonight and should be fired up for their 2016-17 home opener. Luckily, breaking down the Flyers isn’t overly complicated as Dave Hakstol has two very capable forward lines to throw over the boards this evening. Claude Giroux headlines the top line and not only lead the team with 67 points last season, but is also off to a fine start with four assists in the first three games. He’ll be flanked by Michael Raffl and Wayne Simmonds on that #1 forward line, leaving his old partner-in-crime Jakub Voracek to center what looks to be a very entertaining second line alongside Sean Couturier and talented rookie Travis Konecny. With Anaheim likely looking to lock up Ryan Kesler on the Giroux line as much as possible, the trio of Voracek, Couturier and Konecny figure to see a bit more open ice this evening. On defense, Shayne Gostisbehere is easily the #1 option to target from the Flyers. He racked up 17 goals and 29 assists in just 64 games during his rookie year last season, quarterback’s the teams very dangerous #1 power-play unit, and leads all Flyers skaters with 13 SOG thus far this season.
Anaheim Ducks
Team Metrics – 2016 – 52.36 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -4, 109.29 CP60
Elite Options
Ryan Getzlaf – 2016 metrics – 60.92 CF60, 2.69 xGF60, 99.93 PDO
Secondary Options
Corey Perry – 2016 metrics – 57.48 CF60, 2.61 xGF60, 100.97 PDO
Jakob Silfverberg – 2016 metrics – 60.2 CF60, 2.64 xGF60, 97.94 PDO
Ryan Kesler – 2016 metrics – 58.53 CF60, 2.62 xGF60, 98.53 PDO
Cam Fowler – 2016 metrics – 55.06 CF60, 2.4 xGF60, 98.55 PDO
Sami Vatanen – 2016 metrics – 57.16 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 99.83 PDO
Expected Netminder
John Gibson – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Philadelphia Flyers
Team Metrics – 2016 – 50.59 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 4, 116.02 CP60
Elite Options
Claude Giroux – 2016 metrics – 63.33 CF60, 2.41 xGF60, 99.85 PDO
Shayne Gostisbehere – 2016 metrics – 57.71 CF60, 2.42 xGF60, 103.14 PDO
Secondary Options
Jakub Voracek – 2016 metrics – 60.44 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 100.75 PDO
Sean Couturier – 2016 metrics – 61.65 CF60, 2.68 xGF60, 101.99 PDO
Wayne Simmonds – 2016 metrics – 64.57 CF60, 2.68 xGF60, 100.21 PDO
Travis Konecny – 2016 metrics – NA
Expected Netminder
Steve Mason – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 7 GPP
New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins
| New Jersey Devils | Boston Bruins | ||||||||
 | Cory Schneider |  | Tuukka Rask | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 38-36-8 | 42-31-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.22 | 2.00 | 19.90% | 83.00% | Team Stats | 2.88 | 2.67 | 20.50% | 82.20% |
The Devils picked up an ugly looking 2-1 win over the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday night, but on an eleven game slate, they’re just not a team that I’m excited to target in cash games. To make matters worse for the slow-paced Devils is the fact that Boston is expecting to have Patrice Bergeron back in action tonight and he just happens to be arguably the best defensive forward in the NHL. While I am recommending the cash game fade here, the Devils do have two forward lines that are more than capable of catching fire on any given night. The top line, which sees Travis Zajac center Taylor Hall and P.A. Parenteau, has plenty of firepower (particularly in Hall), but that also means that they’ll see a rather steady dose of the duo of Bergeron and Marchand at even strength. With that in mind, the often overlooked second line of Michael Cammalleri, Adam Henrique and Kyle Palmieri look like very interesting GPP targets. On defense, it’s a fantasy wasteland for the Devils. If you’re desperate for a play, Damon Severson holds the reigns as the point man on the top power-play unit, but just hasn’t shown much offensive upside during his brief NHL career.
As much as the Devils are not a team I like to target in DFS, the same be said for the teams that play against them. New Jersey posted an NHL low (by a very wide margin) 93.26 CP60 last season, and while they did add some offensive weapons in the offseason, John Hynes does not look eager to change his approach. The Bruins did defeat the Devils in two of their three meetings last season and definitely have more fantasy appeal than their counterparts, so we’ll dig in a bit regardless of the less-than-stellar matchup. With Bergeron finally back in the lineup, he’ll regain his role as the center of the top forward line where he’ll be flanked by Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak. Both Marchand and Pastrnak have been on fire to start the season and there’s no reason to believe they’ll slow down one bit with Bergeron back in the mix. This will push David Backes down to the second line, and while it does put a ding into his fantasy value to some degree, playing alongside the very talented David Krejci is a nice consolation prize. On the blue-line, Torey Krug still holds the reigns as the point-man on the #1 power-play unit and is the top option here. He’s yet to find his name on the scoresheet, but with 125 points in 244 games thus far in his career, that trend won’t last long.
New Jersey Devils
Team Metrics – 2016 – 46.17 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -23, 93.26 CP60
Elite Options
NONE
Secondary Options
Taylor Hall – 2016 metrics – 60.48 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 100.22 PDO
Adam Henrique – 2016 metrics – 42.06 CF60, 2.2 xGF60, 103.21 PDO
Kyle Palmieri – 2016 metrics – 42.55 CF60, 2.01 xGF60, 102.97 PDO
Expected Netminder
Cory Schneider – My Ratings (out of 10): 6.5 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Boston Bruins
Team Metrics – 2016 – 49.55 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 7, 112.71 CP60
Elite Options
Brad Marchand – 2016 metrics – 66.32 CF60, 2.6 xGF60, 101.02 PDO
Patrice Bergeron – 2016 metrics – 63.59 CF60, 2.47 xGF60, 99.76 PDO
Secondary Options
David Krejci – 2016 metrics – 56.33 CF60, 2.07 xGF60, 102.3 PDO
David Pastrnak – 2016 metrics – 59.97 CF60, 2.3 xGF60, 101.58 PDO
David Backes – 2016 metrics – 55.83 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 99.93 PDO
Torey Krug – 2016 metrics – 58.45 CF60, 2.29 xGF60, 101.04 PDO
Expected Netminder
Tuukka Rask – My Ratings (out of 10): 8 Cash, 7 GPP
Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers
| Washington Capitals | Florida Panthers | ||||||||
 | Braden Holtby |  | Roberto Luongo | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 56-18-8 | 47-26-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.02 | 1.00 | 21.90% | 85.20% | Team Stats | 2.83 | 1.67 | 16.90% | 79.50% |
Over an 82 game season, there will only be a handful of nights that find me a somewhat unexcited about the idea of rolling with Alex Ovechkin and potentially several of his teammates in my cash games. However, a road game against the a defensively sound Panthers team definitely has me lowering my expectations tonight. The Capitals managed just five goals in their three meetings against the Panthers last season and it’s not like we’re really catching any kind of matchup discount here like we often saw in baseball when teams faced a top-tier pitcher. I don’t need to tell you about Alex Ovechkin; he’s top 50 goals in three straight seasons, shoots the puck more frequently than anyone else in the league, and is essentially matchup proof. You just need to make the decision if he’s worth his big ticket asking price tonight. With at least some of your competitors choosing to spend their money elsewhere, this does indirectly make him a very intriguing GPP target as it’s not often you can find him and his linemates (Evgeny Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie) at any type of suppressed ownership rates. With the Panthers likely doing all they can to slow down Ovechkin, the trio of Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom and Andre Burakovsky also emerge as fine GPP targets and all three are very reasonably priced across the industry. On defense, John Carlson brings the highest upside on the Washington blue-line and sees significant fantasy value as he shares the point of the #1 power-play with Mr. Ovechkin.
Unlike their opponents tonight, the Florida Panthers are a team that need to be in the right matchup before I’ll look to target them heavily in DFS hockey, and facing the team that took home the President’s Trophy last season just isn’t the time. Now, I’m not saying they can’t win this game because they most certainly can, but their best bet for two points tonight is to slow this game down and look to grind out a 2-1 or 3-2 type victory. Further complicating things for the Panther’s offense is that they’ll be forced to try and get pucks behind last year’s Vezina Trophy winner Braden Holtby. With injuries to key offensive contributors Jonathan Huberdeau and Nick Bjugstad, the Panthers are somewhat thin up-front and really only have two forward lines that figure to provide much offense. Aleksander Barkov looks to be a player to watch this season, and after potting 28 goals last season, he’s off to a fine start with two goals and an assist through the first three games. He’ll center the ageless wonder Jaromir Jagr and Jonathan Marchessault on both the top forward line and #1 power-play unit. Alternatively, Vincent Trocheck has scored a pair of goals already this season and centers a dangerous second line with Jussi Jokinen and Reilly Smith on his wings. On the blue-line, both Aaron Ekblad and Keith Yandle figure to be in store for very fine offensive seasons and both see very heavy usage with the man advantage. They both have GPP upside but you’ll want to tread carefully because Washington owned an Eastern Conference best 85.2% penalty kill last season.
Washington Capitals
Team Metrics – 2016 – 51.04 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 36, 112.04 CP60
Elite Options
Alex Ovechkin – 2016 metrics – 62.87 CF60, 2.7 xGF60, 102.73 PDO
Secondary Options
Evgeny Kuznetsov – 2016 metrics – 60.15 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 101.62 PDO
T.J. Oshie – 2016 metrics – 58.27 CF60, 2.37 xGF60, 102.66 PDO
Nicklas Backstrom – 2016 metrics – 59.94 CF60, 2.25 xGF60, 103.07 PDO
John Carlson – 2016 metrics – 58.56 CF60, 2.44 xGF60, 101.52 PDO
Expected Netminder
Braden Holtby – My Ratings (out of 10): 8 Cash, 8 GPP
Florida Panthers
Team Metrics – 2016 – 48.68 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 34, 100.9 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Aleksander Barkov – 2016 metrics – 51.4 CF60, 2.54 xGF60, 103.76 PDO
Jaromir Jagr – 2016 metrics – 53.31 CF60, 2.6 xGF60, 103.87 PDO
Vincent Trocheck – 2016 metrics – 52.95 CF60, 2.37 xGF60, 103.47 PDO
Keith Yandle – 2016 metrics – 55.41 CF60, 2.42 xGF60, 101.98 PDO
Aaron Ekblad – 2016 metrics – 49.04 CF60, 2.19 xGF60, 101.55 PDO
Expected Netminder
Roberto Luongo – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 8 GPP
Arizona Coyotes at Montreal Canadiens
| Arizona Coyotes | Montreal Canadiens | ||||||||
 | Mike Smith |  | Carey Price | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 35-39-8 | 38-38-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.54 | 5.00 | 17.70% | 77.30% | Team Stats | 2.63 | 1.33 | 16.20% | 81.90% |
On the surface, this game doesn’t look THAT appealing from a fantasy perspective, but digging a little deeper makes it look like a potential gold mine. I’ll be the first to admit that leaning too heavily off of the limited data we’ve received this early in the season can be a big mistake, the fact that these two teams own the highest SCA60 (scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes) rates in the league by a fairly wide margin is a bit eye popping. While seeing Arizona near the top of the list won’t shock many, this does look like a nice chance to roll out some Arizona players (and stacks) before the masses catch on to the Canadien’s defensive struggles. Shea Weber acquisition was already an unpopular one in Montreal, and now that he and his new defensive partner Nathan Beaulieu sit with the worst two SC60 rates in the league thus far (among all skaters with 40+ minutes of ice-time), there’s plenty of resentment building among this fan base. When looking to target the Coyotes, my focus always starts with Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the blue-line. He led this team in both points (55) and SOG (228) last season and the 25 year-old looks to still be improving with every passing year. He shares the point duties on the #1 power-play unit with Alex Goligoski who has racked up three assists in the first two games and shown plenty of offensive upside with the Dallas Stars over the past 3-4 seasons. Up front, the Coyotes have to capable scoring lines to consider. The top line of Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata and Max Domi will likely be the most consistent options throughout the bulk of the season. However, there’s plenty to like about their young and talented second line as #3 overall draft pick Dylan Strome is set to center the dangerous tandem of Tobias Rieder and Anthony Duclair. Now, with all of that said, keep an eye on the status of Carey Price as his presence in net would certainly be a downgrade across the board for the Coyotes.
I touched on the defensive shortcomings of this Montreal team a bit, but that certainly doesn’t mean I don’t want some exposure to their offense tonight. As mentioned earlier, the Coyotes have had their own defensive breakdowns this season and were not only a terrible puck possession team last season (46.8 CF%) but also allowed an ugly 2.98 goals against per game in 2015-16. Despite a down season by his standards, Max Pacioretty reached the 30 goal plateau for the third straight season and led the Canadiens with 64 points. He’ll once again lead the charge alongside Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher both at even strength and on the #1 power-play unit which makes them all terrific options as, among their other defensive red-flags, the Coyotes also sputtered their way to a terrible 77.3% penalty kill last season. Alternatively, Alexander Radulov has just one point through his first three games back in the NHL, but he was often voted the best player in the world not playing in the NHL, and he’s simply not going to stay quite for long. He’s still cheap, sees plenty of run on the second power-play unit and likely will be overlooked tonight. On defense, it’s Shea Weber and Andrei Markov that should be on your radar. Both players join forces on the point of the #1 power-play unit and have a long track record of putting up very solid offensive numbers. Alternatively, Jeff Petry is much cheaper across the industry, and with two goals and a pair of assists in his two appearances this season, he’s worth a look if you’re in need of some salary relief.
Arizona Coyotes
Team Metrics – 2016 – 46.8 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -5, 112.3 CP60
Elite Options
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – 2016 metrics – 56.37 CF60, 2.51 xGF60, 100.87 PDO
Secondary Options
Martin Hanzal – 2016 metrics – 57.9 CF60, 2.36 xGF60, 101.88 PDO
Radim Vrbata – 2016 metrics – 51.18 CF60, 2.19 xGF60, 96.11 PDO
Max Domi – 2016 metrics – 54.16 CF60, 2.35 xGF60, 103.84 PDO
Expected Netminder
Louis Domingue – My Ratings (out of 10): 4 Cash, 5 GPP
Montreal Canadiens
Team Metrics – 2016 – 51.53 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -6, 111.93 CP60
Elite Options
Max Pacioretty – 2016 metrics – 67.37 CF60, 3.05 xGF60, 98.03 PDO
Shea Weber – 2016 metrics – 60.15 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 98.29 PDO
Secondary Options
Alex Galchenyuk – 2016 metrics – 63.62 CF60, 2.85 xGF60, 100.38 PDO
Brendan Gallagher – 2016 metrics – 67.54 CF60, 3.1 xGF60, 102.63 PDO
Alexander Radulov – 2016 metrics – NA
Andrei Markov – 2016 metrics – 58.53 CF60, 2.45 xGF60, 100.82 PDO
Expected Netminder
Carey Price – My Ratings (out of 10): 8 Cash, 7.5 GPP